Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited ₹530, price ₹604, upside -12.4%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹281.00 – ₹801.71 · fair‑value band ₹371.53 – ₹725.96 · the ₹604.40 price screens above the ₹529.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited manufactures and markets fertilizers and chemicals in India and internationally. It operates in two segments, Chemical and Fertilizers.
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Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited manufactures and markets fertilizers and chemicals in India and internationally. It operates in two segments, Chemical and Fertilizers. The Chemical segment offers chemicals and petrochemicals plants such as methanol, formic acid, acetic acid, toluene di- isocyanate (TDI), technical grade urea (TGU), weak nitric acid, concentrated nitric acid, ethyl acetate, aniline and ammonium nitrate. The Fertilizers segment provides urea and ammonium nitro phosphate under the Bharat brand name. In addition, it offers various information technology related hardware and software services. The company was formerly known as Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers Co. Ltd. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited was incorporated in 1976 and is headquartered in Bharuch, India.
Stock analysis
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) currently trades at ₹604.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹529.68, 12.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹793.70 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹604.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹198.39, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹371.53 (bear) to ₹725.96 (bull), the price of ₹604.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited reported revenue of ₹77.7B in FY2026 versus ₹86.2B in FY2022, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹8.1B in FY2026, compounding −17.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹88.8B (≈ $927M) · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 1.14 · EPS (TTM) ₹54.97 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −12%, GNFC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹371.53Fair Value ₹529.68Bull ₹725.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹17.12 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 9.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.4% a year for the price.
Compare Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 352 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.1% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GNFC
Frequently asked questions
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹529.68 versus a price of ₹604.40, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GNFC?
Our model-based fair value for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is ₹529.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹604.40.
What is the quality score of GNFC?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹529.68 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹371.53, optimistic scenario ₹725.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹529.68, about −12% upside versus a price of ₹604.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹371.53, optimistic scenario ₹725.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹77.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited pay a dividend?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GNFC use?
Our models discount Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited that is +10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (+10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.13 %: that much free cash flow Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited it is ₹529.68 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹604.40. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GNFC trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹604.40, fair value ₹529.68, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GNFC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹604.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹529.68). For Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited the two are ₹74.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited worth?
The market values Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited at about ₹88.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹604.40; our models calculate a fair value of ₹529.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GNFC?
Our models span a range for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited: cautious scenario ₹371.53, base ₹529.68, optimistic ₹725.96 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹604.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GNFC?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹529.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 9.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GNFC from its 52-week high?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited trades at ₹604.40, about 4% below its 52-week high of ₹630.30 and 65% above the low of ₹366.45 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹529.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹604.40, calculated fair value ₹529.68 (−12%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GNFC calculated?
We run Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹529.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ₹604.40. Our model-based fair value is ₹529.68, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (₹371.53 to ₹725.96) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) come from?
Earnings per share at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited grew +8.6 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.2 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The market capitalisation of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is ₹88.8B (≈ $927M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 1.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Earnings per share at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited are ₹54.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The dividend yield of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 3.5% (payout 38.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The net margin of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 10.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
The operating margin of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Revenue at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is growing +7.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC)?
Earnings per share at Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited are growing +87.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited (GNFC) hold?
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹11.0B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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