Genova Property Group (GPG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · SE · Market cap 1.8B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 52.28 to kr 52.11 (−0.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 40% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 52.11). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 32.12 – kr 144.20 · fair‑value band kr 52.11 – kr 89.92 · the kr 37.20 price screens below the kr 52.11 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Genova Property Group (GPG) currently trades at kr 37.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 52.11, implying the stock looks roughly 40.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Genova Property Group generated revenue of 537M SEK at a net margin of 49.5%. Revenue declined 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at 7.4B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 52.11 (bear case) to kr 89.92 (bull case); at kr 37.20, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at 40%, GPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (kr 71.93) versus DCF Models (kr 12.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Genova Property Group AB (publ) engages in property management and development in Sweden. The company operates through Property Management and Others segments. It owns, manages, and develops properties, including rental apartments, community services, and commercial premises. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Genova Property Group reported revenue of kr 514M in FY2025 versus kr 320M in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was kr 233M in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +15.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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