Genova Property Group AB (GPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Genova Property Group AB SEK 48.94, price SEK 35.50, upside +37.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Genova Property Group AB (publ) engages in property management and development in Sweden. The company operates through Property Management and Others segments. It owns, manages, and develops properties, including rental apartments, community services, and commercial premises. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Genova Property Group AB (GPG) currently trades at kr 35.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 48.94, implying the stock looks roughly 27.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 71.93 per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the kr 35.50 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at kr 8.09, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 47.68 (bear) to kr 48.94 (bull), the price of kr 35.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Genova Property Group AB reported revenue of 514M SEK in FY2025 versus 320M SEK in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was 233M SEK in FY2025, compounding −21.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.8B SEK (≈ $180M) · P/E ratio 6.5 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) kr 5.45 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 45.3% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 38%, GPG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 47.68Fair Value kr 48.94Bull kr 48.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 3.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs 7%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.329% → 60%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.8% a year for the price.
Compare Genova Property Group AB with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+38% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)50% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.92× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Genova Property Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPG
Frequently asked questions
Is Genova Property Group AB (GPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 48.94 versus a price of kr 35.50, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GPG?
Our model-based fair value for Genova Property Group AB is kr 48.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 35.50.
What is the quality score of GPG?
Genova Property Group AB has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 48.94 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 47.68, optimistic scenario kr 48.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Genova Property Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 48.94, about +38% upside versus a price of kr 35.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 47.68, optimistic scenario kr 48.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Genova Property Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 537M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Genova Property Group AB pay a dividend?
Genova Property Group AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Genova Property Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +48.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPG use?
Our models discount Genova Property Group AB at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.97, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Genova Property Group AB that is +48.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Genova Property Group AB (GPG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Genova Property Group AB grew +13.9 % a year. The price currently implies +48.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Genova Property Group AB (GPG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Genova Property Group AB (+48.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.42 %: that much free cash flow Genova Property Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Genova Property Group AB it is kr 48.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 35.50. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Genova Property Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPG trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 35.50, fair value kr 48.94, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 35.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 48.94). For Genova Property Group AB the two are kr 13.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Genova Property Group AB worth?
The market values Genova Property Group AB at about 1.8B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 35.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 48.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPG?
Our models span a range for Genova Property Group AB: cautious scenario kr 47.68, base kr 48.94, optimistic kr 48.94 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 35.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPG?
Genova Property Group AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 48.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 21.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Genova Property Group AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 1.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPG from its 52-week high?
Genova Property Group AB trades at kr 35.50, about 16% below its 52-week high of kr 42.21 and at the low of kr 35.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 48.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Genova Property Group AB?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Genova Property Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 35.50, calculated fair value kr 48.94 (+38%), Quality Score 53/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPG calculated?
We run Genova Property Group AB through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 48.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Genova Property Group AB currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was kr 35.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 48.94, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Genova Property Group AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 47.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (kr 47.68 to kr 48.94), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Genova Property Group AB (GPG) come from?
Earnings per share at Genova Property Group AB grew +2.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.2 %, EBIT margin +5.1 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −15.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Genova Property Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The market capitalisation of Genova Property Group AB is 1.8B SEK (≈ $180M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Genova Property Group AB is 2.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Earnings per share at Genova Property Group AB are kr 5.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The dividend yield of Genova Property Group AB is 2.6% (payout 16.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The net margin of Genova Property Group AB is 45.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Genova Property Group AB is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Genova Property Group AB is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
The operating margin of Genova Property Group AB is 59.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Revenue at Genova Property Group AB is growing −12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Genova Property Group AB (GPG)?
Earnings per share at Genova Property Group AB are growing +86.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Genova Property Group AB (GPG) carry?
The net debt of Genova Property Group AB is 7.4B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 84.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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