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Granprade (GPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Granprade ZAR 1.80, price ZAR 1.61, upside +11.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · ZA · ISIN ZAE000119814

G Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Granprade

GPL · JSE

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value R1.80 · Undervalued (+12%)
!Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −81.4 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/9)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R3.75 R1.58 Fair Value R1.80 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R1.58 – R3.75 · the R1.61 price screens below the R1.80 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Grand Parade Investments Limited is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in incubation, PIPE's, industry consolidation, recapitalizations, buyouts, and growth capital investments. It considers investments in seed and startup, middle market, mature, turnaround, and emerging growth stages.

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Grand Parade Investments Limited is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in incubation, PIPE's, industry consolidation, recapitalizations, buyouts, and growth capital investments. It considers investments in seed and startup, middle market, mature, turnaround, and emerging growth stages. The firm typically invests in leisure, tourism, and gaming sectors and also considers investments in property, retail, food, manufacturing, real estate and entertainment. It seeks to invest in Africa with a focus on South Africa and Western Cape. The firm primarily invests between R$10 million ($0.84 million) and R$1000 million ($84.98 million) in companies with enterprise value greater than R$300 million ($25.50 million). The firm prefers to take a board seat in its portfolio companies. It may enter into joint ventures and other similar alliances, whereby it forms partnerships with such entities, contributing not only capital, but also providing strategic managerial input. The firm prefers to take minority or majority stake in its portfolio companies. The firm seeks to take more than 20 per cent stake, however a smaller stake is also considered where there is the potential to increase such stake in the future. It seeks to make balance sheet investments. Grand Parade Investments Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Granprade (GPL) currently trades at R1.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R1.80, implying the stock looks roughly 10.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R6.65 per share, and 12 of the 17 models we run sit above the R1.61 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at R1.09, and 5 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Granprade reported revenue of 292K ZAR in FY2025 versus 1.0M ZAR in FY2021, a compound −26.7%/yr. Reported net income was 61.2M ZAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 811M ZAC · P/E ratio 15.0 · EPS (TTM) R0.1200 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 15,798% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% · Operating margin −7,549%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 12%, GPL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R1.80 Fair Value R1.80 Bull R1.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1200 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R0.8100 R1.09 R1.98 76
Growth DCF R0.7800 R1.22 R1.94 75
Residual Income R2.01 R2.07 R2.03 74
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R0.8100 R1.09 R1.98 76
5Y Revenue Exit R0.4400 R0.4600 R0.5100 72
5Y P/E Exit R2.18 R4.97 R8.85 65
10Y Revenue Exit R0.5500 R0.6800 R0.7000 66
10Y P/E Exit R1.80 R4.35 R8.72 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R0.9700 R6.79 R9.53 61
Lynch FV R3.51 R5.01 R6.51 59
PEG = 1.0 R3.51 R5.01 R6.51 55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R1.03 R2.04 R3.10 64
DDM Multi-Stage R1.03 R1.77 R2.16 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple R2.36 R3.15 R3.94 63
P/B Multiple R1.83 R2.43 R3.04 55
EV/Revenue R0.2900 R0.2900 R0.2900 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R1.30 R1.74 R2.60 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R0.7800 R1.22 R1.94 75
Economic Profit
Residual Income R2.01 R2.07 R2.03 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R4.66 R6.65 R8.65 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 28/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−79.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−69.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−81.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −52.5% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2019) → −17,074.0% (2025)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.4% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 226 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Below median
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.2% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.0× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 3.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)49 · sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 18
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 70

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCD $237.02 $162.81 −31%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $93.65 $35.83 −62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $32.71 $35.98 +10%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $140.63 $75.61 −46%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $71.66 $74.72 +4%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $213.54 $173.68 −19%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $40.85 $49.95 +22%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $164.84 $128.38 −22%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $38.76 $15.54 −60%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $296.43 $231.96 −22%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granprade Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPL

Frequently asked questions

Is Granprade (GPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R1.80 versus a price of R1.61, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GPL?
Our model-based fair value for Granprade is R1.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R1.61.
What is the quality score of GPL?
Granprade has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granprade (GPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R1.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granprade stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R1.80, about +12% upside versus a price of R1.61 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Granprade (GPL)?
Granprade reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 332K ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Granprade pay a dividend?
Granprade currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Granprade (GPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granprade would have to grow free cash flow by +32.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -81.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPL use?
Our models discount Granprade at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granprade that is +32.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granprade (GPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granprade grew -81.4 % a year. The price currently implies +32.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granprade (GPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granprade (+32.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granprade (GPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow Granprade produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granprade (GPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granprade it is R1.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R1.61. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Granprade stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPL trades below its calculated fair value: price R1.61, fair value R1.80, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R1.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R1.80). For Granprade the two are R0.1900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granprade worth?
The market values Granprade at about 811M ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R1.61; our models calculate a fair value of R1.80 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of GPL?
Granprade trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R1.80 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granprade (GPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granprade (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPL from its 52-week high?
Granprade trades at R1.61, about 43% below its 52-week high of R2.80 and 2% above the low of R1.58 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R1.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granprade?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Yum! Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granprade stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R1.61, calculated fair value R1.80 (+12%), Quality Score 63/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPL calculated?
We run Granprade through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R1.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Granprade currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granprade (GPL)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R1.61. Our model-based fair value is R1.80, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granprade right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R1.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Granprade

How large is the market capitalisation of Granprade (GPL)?
The market capitalisation of Granprade is 811M ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Granprade (GPL)?
Earnings per share at Granprade are R0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Granprade (GPL)?
The dividend yield of Granprade is 6.2% (payout 82.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Granprade (GPL)?
The net margin of Granprade is 15,798% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Granprade (GPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granprade is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granprade (GPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granprade is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granprade (GPL)?
The operating margin of Granprade is −7,549% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granprade (GPL)?
Revenue at Granprade is growing +26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −69.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granprade (GPL)?
Earnings per share at Granprade are growing −19.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Granprade (GPL) hold?
Granprade holds more cash than debt, 120M ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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