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Data-driven stock valuation

Granprade (GPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Granprade stock ZAR 1.09, price ZAR 1.73, that is 37.0% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical ZA · ISIN ZAE000119814

G Granprade logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Granprade

GPL · JSE
Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 37% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 64/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (7/10)
Revenue last quarter +27% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −81.4 %/yr in ZAR)
Fair value R1.09 · Strongly overvalued
Narrow moat 35/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Thinly traded⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R3.75 R1.44 Fair Value R1.09 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R1.44 – R3.75 · fair‑value band R0.8900 – R1.23 · the R1.73 price screens above the R1.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Grand Parade Investments Limited is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in incubation, PIPE's, industry consolidation, recapitalizations, buyouts, and growth capital investments.

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It considers investments in seed and startup, middle market, mature, turnaround, and emerging growth stages. The firm typically invests in leisure, tourism, and gaming sectors and also considers investments in property, retail, food, manufacturing, real estate and entertainment.

It seeks to invest in Africa with a focus on South Africa and Western Cape. The firm primarily invests between R$10 million ($0.84 million) and R$1000 million ($84.98 million) in companies with enterprise value greater than R$300 million ($25.50 million).

The firm prefers to take a board seat in its portfolio companies. It may enter into joint ventures and other similar alliances, whereby it forms partnerships with such entities, contributing not only capital, but also providing strategic managerial input.

The firm prefers to take minority or majority stake in its portfolio companies. The firm seeks to take more than 20 per cent stake, however a smaller stake is also considered where there is the potential to increase such stake in the future. It seeks to make balance sheet investments.

Grand Parade Investments Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Granprade (GPL) currently trades at R1.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R1.09, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R2.89 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the R1.73 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R0.2100, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R0.8900 (bear) to R1.23 (bull), the price of R1.73 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.

Granprade reported revenue of 292K ZAR in FY2025 versus 1.0M ZAR in FY2021, a compound −26.7%/yr. Reported net income was 61.2M ZAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 739M ZAR Micro · P/E ratio 14.4 · EPS (TTM) R0.1200 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Return on equity 4.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −7,549% · Revenue (TTM) 332K ZAR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −37%, GPL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R0.8900 Fair Value R1.09 Bull R1.23
Price R1.73 · Downside -37.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1200 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF R0.4700 R0.5200 R0.5900 82
Growth DCF R0.4700 R0.5200 R0.5900 80
Residual Income R1.66 R1.67 R1.73 76
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R0.4700 R0.5200 R0.5900 82
5Y Revenue Exit R0.3600 R0.3700 R0.3800 74
5Y P/E Exit R1.30 R1.99 R2.81 70
10Y Revenue Exit R0.4100 R0.4200 R0.4300 68
10Y P/E Exit R0.8800 R1.25 R1.60 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R0.8900 R1.09 R1.23 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R0.7000 R0.7500 R0.8100 69
DDM Multi-Stage R0.7000 R0.8000 R0.9300 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple R2.17 R2.89 R3.61 63
P/B Multiple R7.16 R9.55 R11.93 55
EV/Revenue R0.2600 R0.2600 R0.2600 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R0.1400 R0.2100 R0.2600 55
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R0.4700 R0.5200 R0.5900 80
Economic Profit
Residual Income R1.66 R1.67 R1.73 76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R1.53 R2.18 R2.84 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 75
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 84
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 21
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 86
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Revenue growth 1 year
−79.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−69.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−81.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −52.5% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−52.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2019) → −17,074.0% (2025)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +30.1% a year for the price.

GPL screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −37.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 4.7% · Below median
Return on assets 5.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 26.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 6.9% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.66× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 52.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)19 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $34.43 $37.87 +10% vs GPL
Yum China Holdings YUMC $49.95 $51.14 +2% vs GPL
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR $77.69 $72.40 −7% vs GPL
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $226.35 $175.82 −22% vs GPL
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $334.28 $234.54 −30% vs GPL
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $183.88 $128.55 −30% vs GPL
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $105.41 $65.63 −38% vs GPL
McDonald's Corporation MCD $276.52 $162.81 −41% vs GPL
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $161.14 $73.05 −55% vs GPL
CAVA Group CAVA $59.15 $12.01 −80% vs GPL

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Granprade: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Granprade Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPL

Frequently asked questions

Is Granprade (GPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R1.09 versus a price of R1.73, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPL?
Our model-based fair value for Granprade is R1.09 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R1.73.
What is the quality score of GPL?
Granprade has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Granprade (GPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R1.09 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario R0.8900, optimistic scenario R1.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Granprade stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R1.09, about 37% lower versus a price of R1.73 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R0.8900, optimistic scenario R1.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Granprade (GPL)?
Granprade reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 332K ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Granprade pay a dividend?
Granprade currently shows a dividend yield of 6.92% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Granprade (GPL)?
Granprade has a dividend yield of 6.9%.
What growth is priced into Granprade (GPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Granprade would have to grow free cash flow by +34.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -81.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPL use?
Our models discount Granprade at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Granprade that is +34.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Granprade (GPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Granprade grew -81.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +34.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Granprade (GPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Granprade (+34.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Granprade (GPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.89 %: that much free cash flow Granprade produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Granprade (GPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Granprade it is R1.09 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of R1.73. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Granprade stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GPL trades above its calculated fair value: price R1.73, fair value R1.09, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R1.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R1.09). For Granprade the two are R0.6400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Granprade worth?
The market values Granprade at about 739M ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is R1.73; our models calculate a fair value of R1.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPL?
Our models span a range for Granprade: cautious scenario R0.8900, base R1.09, optimistic R1.23 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price R1.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPL?
Granprade trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R1.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Granprade (GPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Granprade (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 4.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPL from its 52-week high?
Granprade trades at R1.73, about 29% below its 52-week high of R2.44 and 20% above the low of R1.44 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R1.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Granprade?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Granprade stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price R1.73, calculated fair value R1.09 (−37%), Quality Score 64/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPL calculated?
We run Granprade through 15 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R1.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Granprade itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Granprade (GPL)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was R1.73. Our model-based fair value is R1.09, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Granprade right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R1.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Granprade

How large is the market capitalisation of Granprade (GPL)?
The market capitalisation of Granprade is 739M ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Granprade (GPL)?
Earnings per share at Granprade are R0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Granprade (GPL)?
The dividend yield of Granprade is 6.9% (payout 99.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the return on equity of Granprade (GPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Granprade is 4.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Granprade (GPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Granprade is −5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Granprade (GPL)?
The operating margin of Granprade is −7,549% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Granprade (GPL)?
Revenue at Granprade is growing +26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −69.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Granprade (GPL)?
Earnings per share at Granprade are growing −19.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Granprade (GPL) hold?
Granprade holds more cash than debt, 120M ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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