Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Grainger plc (GRGTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Grainger plc $1.55, price $2.20, upside -29.6%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Real Estate · US · ISIN GB00B04V1276

Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Grainger plc

GRGTF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $1.55 · Overvalued (−29.6%)

✓Quality 68/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 54.8% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

✓3.8% dividend yield · Well covered

!Moderate moat 62/100

!The models disagree: range $0.8400 to $2.77

26 models, one by oneBear $0.8400 to bull $2.77 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 68/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.92 – $4.02 · fair‑value band $0.8400 – $2.77 · the $2.20 price screens above the $1.55 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Company profile

Grainger plc designs, builds, develops, owns and operates rental homes in the United Kingdom. The company operates through Private rented sector (PRS), Reversionary, and Others segments. The PRS segment includes stabilized PRS assets, as well as private rented under construction due to direct development and forward funding arrangements. The Reversionary segment consists of regulated tenancies, as well as CHARM, a portfolio of residential mortgages. The Other segment includes legacy strategic land and development arrangements. The company was formerly known as Grainger Trust Plc and changed the name to Grainger Plc in March 2007. Grainger plc was incorporated in 1912 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Grainger plc (GRGTF) currently trades at $2.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.55, 29.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $3.28 per share, and 5 of the 16 models we run sit above the $2.20 price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.7100, and 11 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $0.8400 (bear) to $2.77 (bull), the price of $2.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Grainger plc reported revenue of £259M in FY2025 versus £246M in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was £203M in FY2025, compounding +16.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 5.9 · P/S ratio 4.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.3700 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 78.3% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −30%, GRGTF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.8400 Fair Value $1.55 Bull $2.77

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2860 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $3.04 $3.28 $3.77 76

FCF DCF $0.0500 $1.13 $2.54 71

Growth DCF $0.0700 $1.03 $2.19 70

All 16 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $0.0500 $1.13 $2.54 71

5Y Revenue Exit n/a $0.7600 $2.12 69

5Y EBITDA Exit $0.0500 $1.46 $3.07 67

10Y Revenue Exit n/a $0.7200 $1.95 64

10Y EBITDA Exit $0.0200 $1.16 $2.60 60

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $0.8100 $1.46 $2.01 68

DDM Multi-Stage $0.8100 $1.22 $1.56 67

Multiples

P/S Multiple $2.26 $3.01 $3.77 58

P/B Multiple $4.63 $6.17 $7.71 55

EV/EBIT $1.22 $2.48 $3.74 63

EV/EBITDA $0.4000 $1.39 $2.38 61

EV/Revenue n/a $0.4200 $1.31 50

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $1.83 $2.45 $3.65 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $0.0700 $1.03 $2.19 70

Rev-Margin DCF n/a $0.7100 $1.86 69

Economic Profit

Residual Income $3.04 $3.28 $3.77 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 39

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 68

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 77

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 43

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 95

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 64

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 27

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 20

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 81

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−9.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−2.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year

Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+9.9%

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’20

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’25

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.

≈ +2.9%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year−0.9%

Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.1% vs 5.3%, picking up

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 49%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 549% above its own trend.

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+14.1%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

−21.2%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.5% a year for the price and −23.0% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2026 (sales)−25.2%

Forecast 2027 (sales)−25.2%

Projected 2028 (sales)−21.8%

Projected 2029 (sales)−18.4%

Projected 2030 (sales)−15.0%

GRGTF screens overvalued: fair value 30% below the price. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →

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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 530 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +5.4% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 6.7% · Above median

Return on assets 2.0% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 54.8% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 50.7% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −16.6% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.74× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.9× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.76× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 6.44× · Priciest 25%

P/FCF 12.8× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 24.2× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC	232,000 VND	25,731 VND	−89%
CBRE Group CBRE	$134.55	$91.06	−32%
KE Holdings 2423	HK$42.92	HK$17.16	−60%
Swire Properties Limited 1972	HK$24.32	HK$13.39	−45%
Cellnex Telecom, S.A CLNX	€23.99	€23.94	+0%
Vonovia SE VNA	€16.82	€36.55	+117%
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL	$308.07	$540.65	+75%
Wharf Real Estate Investment Company 1997	HK$30.54	HK$27.42	−10%
CoStar Group CSGP	$26.95	$6.19	−77%
China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited 1209	HK$37.00	HK$56.36	+52%

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Grainger plc · Fair Value
$1.55 −30%Fair Value
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<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRGTF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Grainger plc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$1.55</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−30%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grainger plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRGTF

Frequently asked questions

Is Grainger plc (GRGTF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.55 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.20, about −30% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of GRGTF?

Our model-based fair value for Grainger plc is $1.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $2.20.

What is the quality score of GRGTF?

Grainger plc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.55 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8400, optimistic scenario $2.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Grainger plc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $1.55, about −30% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $2.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8400, optimistic scenario $2.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Grainger plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £240M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Grainger plc pay a dividend?

Grainger plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grainger plc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRGTF use?

Our models discount Grainger plc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grainger plc that is +14.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Grainger plc (GRGTF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Grainger plc grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +14.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Grainger plc (GRGTF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grainger plc (+14.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.81 %: that much free cash flow Grainger plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grainger plc it is $1.55 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.20. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Grainger plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, GRGTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.20, fair value $1.55, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of GRGTF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.55). For Grainger plc the two are $0.6500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Grainger plc worth?

The market values Grainger plc at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.20; our models calculate a fair value of $1.55 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRGTF?

Our models span a range for Grainger plc: cautious scenario $0.8400, base $1.55, optimistic $2.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of GRGTF?

Grainger plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 24.2.

How solid is the balance sheet of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Grainger plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.7%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is GRGTF from its 52-week high?

Grainger plc trades at $2.20, about 20% below its 52-week high of $2.75 and 7% above the low of $2.06 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.55 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Grainger plc?

From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Grainger plc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.20, calculated fair value $1.55 (−30%), Quality Score 68/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of GRGTF calculated?

We run Grainger plc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grainger plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $2.20. Our model-based fair value is $1.55, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Grainger plc right now?

The model range is unusually wide ($0.8400 to $2.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Grainger plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The market capitalisation of Grainger plc is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Grainger plc is 4.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Earnings per share at Grainger plc are $0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The dividend yield of Grainger plc is 3.8% (payout 22.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The net margin of Grainger plc is 78.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Grainger plc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grainger plc is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

The operating margin of Grainger plc is 50.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Revenue at Grainger plc is growing −16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Grainger plc (GRGTF)?

Earnings per share at Grainger plc are growing +175% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Grainger plc (GRGTF) carry?

The net debt of Grainger plc is £1.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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