Grange Resources Ltd (GRR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Grange Resources Ltd A$0.35, price A$0.12, upside +200.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1150 – A$1.58 · fair‑value band A$0.3298 – A$0.4363 · the A$0.1150 price screens below the A$0.3450 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grange Resources Limited owns and operates integrated iron ore mining and pellet production business in Australia, China, South Korea, Indonesia, and internationally. The company is involved in the mining, processing, sale of iron ore, exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral resources.
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Grange Resources Limited owns and operates integrated iron ore mining and pellet production business in Australia, China, South Korea, Indonesia, and internationally. The company is involved in the mining, processing, sale of iron ore, exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral resources. It owns interest in the Savage River project located in 100km southwest of the city of Burnie; the Pellet Plant project situated in Port Latta located to the 70Km northwest of Burnie; and the Southdown magnetite project located 90km from Albany Western Australia Great Southern region. Grange Resources Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Burnie, Australia.
Stock analysis
Grange Resources Ltd (GRR) currently trades at A$0.1150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3450, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$1.73 per share, and 15 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$0.1150 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.3000, and 0 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.3298 (bear) to A$0.4363 (bull), the price of A$0.1150 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Grange Resources Ltd reported revenue of A$478M in FY2025 versus A$782M in FY2021, a compound −11.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$46.6M in FY2025, compounding −38.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$168M (≈ $116M) · P/E ratio 2.9 · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0400 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.8% · Operating margin 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at 200%, GRR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.3298Fair Value A$0.3450Bull A$0.4363
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0301 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−25.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.7% vs −6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 11%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 407 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)16.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Grange Resources Ltd (GRR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3450 versus a price of A$0.1150, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GRR?
Our model-based fair value for Grange Resources Ltd is A$0.3450 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1150.
What is the quality score of GRR?
Grange Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3450 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.3298, optimistic scenario A$0.4363. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grange Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3450, about +200% upside versus a price of A$0.1150 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.3298, optimistic scenario A$0.4363. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Grange Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$478M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grange Resources Ltd it is A$0.3450 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.1150. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grange Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GRR trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1150, fair value A$0.3450, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3450). For Grange Resources Ltd the two are A$0.2300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grange Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Grange Resources Ltd at about A$168M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1150; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3450 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRR?
Our models span a range for Grange Resources Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.3298, base A$0.3450, optimistic A$0.4363 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.1150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRR?
Grange Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3450 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GRR?
The PEG ratio of Grange Resources Ltd is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grange Resources Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRR from its 52-week high?
Grange Resources Ltd trades at A$0.1150, about 61% below its 52-week high of A$0.2950 and at the low of A$0.1150 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3450 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grange Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grange Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.1150, calculated fair value A$0.3450 (+200%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRR calculated?
We run Grange Resources Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3450, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Grange Resources Ltd currently trades 67 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was A$0.1150. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3450, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grange Resources Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.3298). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Grange Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The market capitalisation of Grange Resources Ltd is A$168M (≈ $116M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grange Resources Ltd is 0.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Earnings per share at Grange Resources Ltd are A$0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The net margin of Grange Resources Ltd is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grange Resources Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grange Resources Ltd is 16.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
The operating margin of Grange Resources Ltd is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Revenue at Grange Resources Ltd is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)?
Earnings per share at Grange Resources Ltd are growing +3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Grange Resources Ltd (GRR) generate?
The free cash flow of Grange Resources Ltd is −A$21.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Grange Resources Ltd (GRR) hold?
Grange Resources Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$94.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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