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GSD Holding (GSDHO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TR · Market cap 4.2B TRY

GH GSD Holding GSDHO · IS
Price4.79 TRY
Fair Value4.99 TRY
Upside+4.2%
Quality46/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: Medium Range 2.32 TRY – 5.24 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −13.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (2.32 TRY to 5.24 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

6.60 TRY 0.7276 TRY Fair Value 4.99 TRY May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.7276 TRY – 6.60 TRY · fair‑value band 2.32 TRY – 5.24 TRY · the 4.79 TRY price screens below the 4.99 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.

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Analysis

GSD Holding (GSDHO) currently trades at 4.79 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.99 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 4.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, GSD Holding generated revenue of 5.4B TRY at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at 2.8B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 2.32 TRY (bear case) to 5.24 TRY (bull case); at 4.79 TRY, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at 4%, GSDHO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 4.25 TRY 8.22 TRY 15.98 TRY 80
Residual Income 9.77 TRY 9.14 TRY 6.87 TRY 76
Rev-Margin DCF 9.88 TRY 21.00 TRY 42.92 TRY 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4.58 TRY 7.43 TRY 16.34 TRY 38
5Y Revenue Exit 9.32 TRY 18.30 TRY 37.22 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 19.75 TRY 39.39 TRY 78.04 TRY 41
5Y P/E Exit 3.43 TRY 8.11 TRY 14.42 TRY 38
10Y Revenue Exit 7.57 TRY 21.16 TRY 30.96 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 15.48 TRY 43.12 TRY 93.77 TRY 37
10Y P/E Exit 3.84 TRY 8.77 TRY 16.70 TRY 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1.62 TRY 11.27 TRY 15.82 TRY 54
Lynch FV 4.85 TRY 6.93 TRY 9.01 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 4.85 TRY 6.93 TRY 9.01 TRY 46
EPV 19.51 TRY 22.70 TRY 25.45 TRY 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 3.57 TRY 4.75 TRY 5.94 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 3.03 TRY 4.04 TRY 5.05 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 3.03 TRY 4.04 TRY 5.05 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 32.65 TRY 43.77 TRY 54.89 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 24.96 TRY 33.52 TRY 42.08 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 10.06 TRY 14.68 TRY 19.29 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7.12 TRY 9.55 TRY 14.25 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.25 TRY 8.22 TRY 15.98 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 9.88 TRY 21.00 TRY 42.92 TRY 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 9.77 TRY 9.14 TRY 6.87 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 24.69 TRY 34.74 TRY 42.59 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 5.89 TRY 8.42 TRY 10.94 TRY 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (18.30 TRY) versus Multiples (4.75 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 5.4B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) -11.5%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 2.3%
Free cash flow 292M TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 47.9
More key figures
Operating margin 56.2%
EPS (TTM) 0.1000 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) -60.0%
Net debt 2.8B TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 28
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

GSD Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in finance, shipping, energy, and education businesses. The company offers spot loans, revolving credit, upfront interest loans, installment business loans, and foreign currency loans; domestic financing services; and factoring, financing, guarantee, collection services.

Full company description

GSD Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in finance, shipping, energy, and education businesses. The company offers spot loans, revolving credit, upfront interest loans, installment business loans, and foreign currency loans; domestic financing services; and factoring, financing, guarantee, collection services. It also provides dry bulk shipping for the products, such as iron ore and other metals, coal, agricultural products, and fertilizers. In addition, the company is involved in the generation of electricity through asphaltite-fueled thermal power plant. Further, it operates and supports primary schools. The company was formerly known as GSD Dis Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to GSD Holding A.S. in November 1996. GSD Holding A.S. was founded in 1986 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GSD Holding reported revenue of 5.4B TRL in FY2025 versus 821M TRL in FY2021, a compound +60.1%/yr. Reported net income was 208M TRL in FY2025, compounding −24.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
5.4B TRY
Latest YoY
+1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+55.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+82.3%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
−43.5%
Revenue +60.1%/yr
FY21 821M TRL
FY22 1.4B TRL
FY23 2.7B TRL
FY24 5.3B TRL
FY25 5.4B TRL
Net income −24.0%/yr
FY21 624M TRL
FY22 1.4B TRL
FY23 −2.4B TRL
FY24 571M TRL
FY25 208M TRL

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GSD Holding · Fair Value
4.99 TRY +4%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GSD Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GSDHO

Peer Group

Marine Shipping · 230 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 56% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.37× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 47.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.34× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 1.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.61× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 9 · sector 27
HEALTH 82 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,828 ₹1,041 -43%
A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA kr 16,520 kr 3,033 -82%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥13.98 ¥40.37 +189%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.17 ¥6.57 +27%
HMM Co 011200 20,050 KRW 33,855 KRW +69%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.35 ¥5.58 +67%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥8.88 ¥15.97 +80%
JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA ₹330.05 ₹126.31 -62%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 80.70 TWD 212.79 TWD +164%
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI kr 137.70 kr 50.56 -63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GSD Holding (GSDHO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.99 TRY versus a price of 4.79 TRY, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GSDHO?
Our model-based fair value for GSD Holding is 4.99 TRY (as of Aug 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 4.79 TRY.
What is the quality score of GSDHO?
GSD Holding has a Quality Score of 46/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GSD Holding (GSDHO)?
GSD Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.4B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GSDHO?
The net profit margin of GSD Holding is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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