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Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Grupo TMM SAB $1.54, price $2.75, upside -44.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US40051D3035

GT Grupo TMM SAB logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Grupo TMM SAB

GTMAY · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $1.54 · Strongly overvalued (−44.1%)
!Quality 53/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.4% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/13)
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$3.49 $0.0100 Fair Value $1.54 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0100 – $3.49 · fair‑value band $1.10 – $1.97 · the $2.75 price screens above the $1.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Grupo TMM, S.A.B., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a logistics and transportation company in Mexico.

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Grupo TMM, S.A.B., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a logistics and transportation company in Mexico. The company offers maritime services; intermodal terminal services; services for the automotive industry; land cargo transportation services, including mobilization of goods using various types of vehicles for cargo transportation, use of trains for the movement of large volumes of goods, and rental and management of storage spaces to store products, as well as packaging, labeling, and order preparation; container maintenance and repair; and port operations comprising management of specialized products, loading and unloading of ships, vessel mooring/unmooring services, continuous ship operations, and control of operations and logistics coordination. It also provides warehousing services for local and international merchandise; and shipyard services. As of March 31, 2025, the company operates a fleet of 8 vessels, which includes 1 chemical tanker, 1 tanker, 1 LPG tanker, and 5 offshore vessels. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.

Stock analysis

Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY) currently trades at $2.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.54, implying the stock looks roughly 78.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $5.28 per share, and 11 of the 12 models we run sit above the $2.75 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.48, and 1 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.10 (bear) to $1.97 (bull), the price of $2.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Grupo TMM SAB reported revenue of 1.8B MXN in FY2025 versus 1.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was 320M MXN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $87.3M · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) $0.4400 · Net margin 17.9% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 8.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 588% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 60% fair-value upside, at −44%, GTMAY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.10 Fair Value $1.54 Bull $1.97
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3255 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $3.18 $3.58 $5.42 75
EPV $2.74 $3.10 $3.39 74
ROIC Compounder $2.74 $3.10 $3.39 72
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.33 $4.07 $4.58 67
EPV $2.74 $3.10 $3.39 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.14 $6.85 $8.57 63
P/S Multiple $2.46 $3.28 $4.10 58
P/B Multiple $5.00 $6.67 $8.34 55
EV/EBIT $3.24 $4.39 $5.54 66
EV/EBITDA $2.55 $3.47 $4.39 67
EV/Revenue $2.08 $3.06 $4.05 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.85 $2.48 $3.71 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.18 $3.58 $5.42 75
ROIC Compounder $2.74 $3.10 $3.39 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $3.70 $5.28 $6.87 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.4% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.3% (2020) → 16.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed

GTMAY screens 79% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 229 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −44.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 12.9% · Above median
Return on assets 3.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 17.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −40.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.37× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.64× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.90× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.56× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)52 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS ₹1,788 ₹1,041 −42%
COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 ¥16.30 ¥40.37 +148%
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft, HLAG €134.60 €88.00 −35%
Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 ¥5.36 ¥6.41 +20%
HMM Co 011200 20,800 KRW 33,795 KRW +62%
Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 115.50 TWD 191.50 TWD +66%
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 ¥3.40 ¥5.58 +64%
Qingdao Port International Co 601298 ¥9.75 ¥15.59 +60%
China Merchants Port Holdings 0144 HK$16.89 HK$24.25 +44%
The National Shipping Company 4030 36.00 SAR 44.07 SAR +22%

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Grupo TMM SAB · Fair Value
$1.54 −79%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo TMM SAB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GTMAY

Frequently asked questions

Is Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.54 versus a price of $2.75, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GTMAY?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo TMM SAB is $1.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.75.
What is the quality score of GTMAY?
Grupo TMM SAB has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $1.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo TMM SAB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.54, about −44% upside versus a price of $2.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.10, optimistic scenario $1.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Grupo TMM SAB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.7B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo TMM SAB it is $1.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.75. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo TMM SAB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GTMAY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.75, fair value $1.54, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GTMAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.54). For Grupo TMM SAB the two are $1.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo TMM SAB worth?
The market values Grupo TMM SAB at about $87.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.75; our models calculate a fair value of $1.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GTMAY?
Our models span a range for Grupo TMM SAB: cautious scenario $1.10, base $1.54, optimistic $1.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GTMAY?
Grupo TMM SAB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GTMAY?
The PEG ratio of Grupo TMM SAB is 0.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo TMM SAB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GTMAY from its 52-week high?
Grupo TMM SAB trades at $2.75, about 21% below its 52-week high of $3.49 and 588% above the low of $0.4000 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo TMM SAB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo TMM SAB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.75, calculated fair value $1.54 (−44%), Quality Score 53/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GTMAY calculated?
We run Grupo TMM SAB through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo TMM SAB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $2.75. Our model-based fair value is $1.54, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo TMM SAB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Grupo TMM SAB

How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo TMM SAB is $87.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo TMM SAB is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Earnings per share at Grupo TMM SAB are $0.4400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The net margin of Grupo TMM SAB is 17.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo TMM SAB is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo TMM SAB is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
The operating margin of Grupo TMM SAB is 8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Revenue at Grupo TMM SAB is growing −40.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY)?
Earnings per share at Grupo TMM SAB are growing −96.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY) generate?
The free cash flow of Grupo TMM SAB is −139M MXN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Grupo TMM SAB (GTMAY) carry?
The net debt of Grupo TMM SAB is 355M MXN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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