Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS TRY 488, price TRY 440, upside +10.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 47.00 TRY – 617.50 TRY · fair‑value band 328.79 TRY – 769.61 TRY · the 440.00 TRY price screens below the 487.85 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
Gübre Fabrikalari Türk Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells chemical fertilizers in Turkey and internationally.
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Gübre Fabrikalari Türk Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells chemical fertilizers in Turkey and internationally. The company offers solid chemical fertilizers; micro granular, crystal and powder form, liquid form, and organic and organomineral liquid fertilizers, as well as biostimulants, auxiliary products, and plant nutrition packages; slow-release fertilizers, such as phosphorus protectant and nitrogen inhibitor fertilizers; organomineral fertilizers; and organic and hobby agriculture fertilizers under the GÜBRETAS brand. It also produces and trades in fertilizer raw materials; and operates and develops gold mines. In addition, the company provides logistics, laboratory, and port services; and technical and general services to the oil, gas and petrochemical industries. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. Gübre Fabrikalari Türk Anonim Sirketi is a subsidiary of Agricultural Credit Cooperatives of Turkey.
Stock analysis
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) currently trades at 440.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 487.85 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 553.48 TRY per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the 440.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 59.77 TRY, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 328.79 TRY (bear) to 769.61 TRY (bull), the price of 440.00 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS reported revenue of 52.5B TRL in FY2025 versus 10.8B TRL in FY2021, a compound +48.6%/yr. Reported net income was 5.3B TRL in FY2025, compounding +78.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 147B TRY (≈ $3.0B) · P/E ratio 20.7 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) 21.29 TRY · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 20.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% · Operating margin 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 11%, GUBRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 328.79 TRYFair Value 487.85 TRYBull 769.61 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (15.52 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+68.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+68.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 20%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 175 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gubre Fabrikalari TAS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GUBRF
Frequently asked questions
Is Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 487.85 TRY versus a price of 440.00 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GUBRF?
Our model-based fair value for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 487.85 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 440.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of GUBRF?
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 487.85 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 328.79 TRY, optimistic scenario 769.61 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gubre Fabrikalari TAS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 487.85 TRY, about +11% upside versus a price of 440.00 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 328.79 TRY, optimistic scenario 769.61 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 56.7B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gubre Fabrikalari TAS would have to grow free cash flow by +19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +57.5 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GUBRF use?
Our models discount Gubre Fabrikalari TAS at 13.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gubre Fabrikalari TAS that is +19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS grew +57.5 % a year. The price currently implies +19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (+19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.49 %: that much free cash flow Gubre Fabrikalari TAS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gubre Fabrikalari TAS it is 487.85 TRY per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of 440.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gubre Fabrikalari TAS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, GUBRF trades below its calculated fair value: price 440.00 TRY, fair value 487.85 TRY, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GUBRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (440.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (487.85 TRY). For Gubre Fabrikalari TAS the two are 47.85 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gubre Fabrikalari TAS worth?
The market values Gubre Fabrikalari TAS at about 147B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is 440.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 487.85 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GUBRF?
Our models span a range for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS: cautious scenario 328.79 TRY, base 487.85 TRY, optimistic 769.61 TRY per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price 440.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GUBRF?
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 487.85 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 5.0, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of GUBRF?
The PEG ratio of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 0.60 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 19, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 20.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GUBRF from its 52-week high?
Gubre Fabrikalari TAS trades at 440.00 TRY, about 30% below its 52-week high of 625.50 TRY and 73% above the low of 254.00 TRY (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 487.85 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gubre Fabrikalari TAS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gubre Fabrikalari TAS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price 440.00 TRY, calculated fair value 487.85 TRY (+11%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GUBRF calculated?
We run Gubre Fabrikalari TAS through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 487.85 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gubre Fabrikalari TAS currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 440.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 487.85 TRY, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gubre Fabrikalari TAS right now?
A fairly wide model range (328.79 TRY to 769.61 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS
How large is the market capitalisation of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The market capitalisation of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 147B TRY (≈ $3.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 2.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Earnings per share at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS are 21.29 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The net margin of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 10.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
The operating margin of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Revenue at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is growing +23.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF)?
Earnings per share at Gubre Fabrikalari TAS are growing +278% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gubre Fabrikalari TAS (GUBRF) carry?
The net debt of Gubre Fabrikalari TAS is 5.6B TRY (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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