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Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 26, 2026: fair value of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited $1.00, price $0.58, upside +72.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited
GZITF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $1.00 · Strongly undervalued (+72.2%)
✓Quality 60/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +12.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3852 – $0.5807 · fair‑value band $0.7700 – $1.25 · the $0.5807 price screens below the $1.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, constructs, develops, operates, and manages expressways and bridges in the People's Republic of China. It also holds real estate properties. The company was formerly known as GZI Transport Limited and changed its name to Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited in May 2011.
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Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, invests in, constructs, develops, operates, and manages expressways and bridges in the People's Republic of China. It also holds real estate properties. The company was formerly known as GZI Transport Limited and changed its name to Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited in May 2011. Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) currently trades at $0.5807, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.00, implying the stock looks roughly 41.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $3.83 per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the $0.5807 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.2400, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.7700 (bear) to $1.25 (bull), the price of $0.5807 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited reported revenue of 4.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.7%/yr. Reported net income was 533M CNY in FY2025, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $972M · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 26.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 72%, GZITF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7700
Fair Value $1.00
Bull $1.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.24
$4.01
$6.58
78
Growth DCF
$2.22
$3.83
$6.04
77
Residual Income
$0.7600
$0.7400
$0.7600
76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.24
$4.01
$6.58
78
Owner Earnings
$1.67
$3.10
$5.19
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.6400
$1.11
$1.66
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.07
$3.94
$6.20
73
5Y P/E Exit
$0.7700
$1.36
$1.98
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.23
$1.84
$2.60
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.10
$3.69
$5.94
67
10Y P/E Exit
$1.32
$2.00
$2.84
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.3200
$1.31
$1.79
64
Lynch FV
$0.3300
$0.4700
$0.6100
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3300
$0.4700
$0.6100
57
EPV
$0.1100
$0.2400
$0.3500
70
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.7500
$1.00
$1.25
63
P/S Multiple
$0.5800
$0.7700
$0.9700
58
P/B Multiple
$0.6100
$0.8100
$1.01
55
EV/EBIT
$1.04
$1.66
$2.28
64
EV/EBITDA
$2.26
$3.29
$4.31
67
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.0900
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.5400
$0.7200
$1.07
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.22
$3.83
$6.04
77
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7600
$0.7400
$0.7600
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.1100
$0.2400
$0.3500
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5700
$0.8200
$1.06
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
60/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Profitability
24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
70
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−14.1% vs −1.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 38%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+29.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.5%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transurban Group TCL | A$13.00 | A$4.92 | −62% |
| China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 | ¥9.88 | ¥13.02 | +32% |
| Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 | ¥12.77 | ¥14.47 | +13% |
| Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 | ¥10.02 | ¥7.88 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 | HK$5.90 | HK$16.36 | +177% |
| Anhui Expressway Company 600012 | ¥15.54 | ¥17.09 | +10% |
| Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 | ¥12.50 | ¥13.75 | +10% |
| Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 | ¥8.06 | ¥9.51 | +18% |
| Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 | ¥6.09 | ¥6.70 | +10% |
| IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB | ₹17.49 | ₹19.95 | +14% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.00 versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $0.5807, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GZITF?
Our model-based fair value for Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is $1.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 26, 2026): $0.5807.
What is the quality score of GZITF?
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.00, about +72% upside versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $0.5807 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.7700, optimistic scenario $1.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GZITF use?
Our models discount Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited that is -7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (-7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 46.98 %: that much free cash flow Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited it is $1.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.5807. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GZITF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5807, fair value $1.00, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GZITF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5807); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.00). For Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited the two are $0.4193 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited worth?
The market values Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited at about $972M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.5807; our models calculate a fair value of $1.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GZITF?
Our models span a range for Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited: cautious scenario $0.7700, base $1.00, optimistic $1.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.5807). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GZITF from its 52-week high?
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited trades at $0.5807, at its 52-week high of $0.5807 and 3% above the low of $0.5654 (as of Jun 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.5807, calculated fair value $1.00 (+72%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GZITF calculated?
We run Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited currently trades 42 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 26, 2026 and stands at $0.5807. Our model-based fair value is $1.00, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.7700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) come from?
Earnings per share at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited grew +1.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The market capitalisation of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is $972M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 11.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Earnings per share at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The net margin of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
The operating margin of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Revenue at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF)?
Earnings per share at Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited are growing −49.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited (GZITF) carry?
The net debt of Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited is 14.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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