Harley-Davidson, Inc (H1OG34) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · BR · Market cap R$14.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +5.6% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range R$90.25 – R$162.66 · fair‑value band R$41.03 – R$68.38 · the R$138.88 price screens above the R$54.70 fair value. As of Jul 18, 2026.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc (H1OG34) currently trades at R$138.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$54.70, implying the stock looks roughly 60.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Harley-Davidson, Inc generated revenue of R$4.3B at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at R$5.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$41.03 (bear case) to R$68.38 (bull case); at R$138.88, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 51% fair-value upside, at -61%, H1OG34 screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail …
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harley-Davidson, Inc reported revenue of R$4.5B in FY2025 versus R$5.8B in FY2022, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$339M in FY2025, compounding −23.0%/yr from FY2022.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.