Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Harley-Davidson, Inc. BRL 260, price BRL 128, upside +102.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$90.25 – R$246.47 · fair‑value band R$205.04 – R$325.14 · the R$128.18 price screens below the R$260.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) currently trades at R$128.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$260.11, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$343.40 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$128.18 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$41.02, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$205.04 (bear) to R$325.14 (bull), the price of R$128.18 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2022, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $339M in FY2025, compounding −23.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$15.1B (≈ $2.9B) · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) R$10.00 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 60% fair-value upside, at 103%, H1OG34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$205.04Fair Value R$260.11Bull R$325.14
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$7.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.7% a year for the price and −2.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Recreational Vehicles · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+161.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.1% · Above median
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harley-Davidson, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/H1OG34
Frequently asked questions
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$260.11 versus a price of R$128.18, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of H1OG34?
Our model-based fair value for Harley-Davidson, Inc. is R$260.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$128.18.
What is the quality score of H1OG34?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$260.11 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$205.04, optimistic scenario R$325.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harley-Davidson, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$260.11, about +103% upside versus a price of R$128.18 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$205.04, optimistic scenario R$325.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Harley-Davidson, Inc. pay a dividend?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harley-Davidson, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H1OG34 use?
Our models discount Harley-Davidson, Inc. at 13.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harley-Davidson, Inc. that is -3.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Harley-Davidson, Inc. grew -8.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harley-Davidson, Inc. (-3.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.32 %: that much free cash flow Harley-Davidson, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harley-Davidson, Inc. it is R$260.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$128.18. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, H1OG34 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$128.18, fair value R$260.11, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H1OG34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$128.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$260.11). For Harley-Davidson, Inc. the two are R$131.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harley-Davidson, Inc. worth?
The market values Harley-Davidson, Inc. at about R$15.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$128.18; our models calculate a fair value of R$260.11 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H1OG34?
Our models span a range for Harley-Davidson, Inc.: cautious scenario R$205.04, base R$260.11, optimistic R$325.14 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$128.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of H1OG34?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$260.11 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
What is the PEG ratio of H1OG34?
The PEG ratio of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 11.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harley-Davidson, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H1OG34 from its 52-week high?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. trades at R$128.18, about 14% below its 52-week high of R$148.32 and 42% above the low of R$90.25 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$260.11 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harley-Davidson, Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co, Brunswick Corporation, BRP Inc, THOR Industries, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harley-Davidson, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$128.18, calculated fair value R$260.11 (+103%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H1OG34 calculated?
We run Harley-Davidson, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$260.11, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Harley-Davidson, Inc. currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$128.18. Our model-based fair value is R$260.11, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harley-Davidson, Inc. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$205.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Harley-Davidson, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is R$15.1B (≈ $2.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 0.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson, Inc. are R$10.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The dividend yield of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 0.6% (payout 7.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The net margin of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 5.7% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
The operating margin of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Revenue at Harley-Davidson, Inc. is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson, Inc. are growing −79.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Harley-Davidson, Inc. (H1OG34) carry?
The net debt of Harley-Davidson, Inc. is $5.4B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 12.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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