Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited stock ₹1,542, price ₹4,836, that is 68.1% below the price, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Hindustan Aeronautics Limited engages in the design, development, manufacture, repair, overhaul, upgrade, and servicing of aircraft, helicopters, aero-engines, avionics, accessories, and aerospace structures in India and internationally.
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The company provides basic trainer and light combat aircraft, light transport aircraft, intermediate jet trainer aircraft, light utility and combat helicopters, maritime utility helicopters, and turbofan and turboshaft engines, as well as aerospace products, which include aluminum alloy riveted structures, propellant tanks, and cryogenic engines.
It also offers avionics, accessories, and materials comprising flight data recorders, laser range systems, head up displays, auto stabilizers, inertial navigation systems, hydraulic pumps, fuel management systems, oxygen systems, gyroscopic/barometric instruments, panel instruments, ejector release units, flight control systems, wheels and brake systems, ground radars, radar computers, missile inertial navigation solutions, air borne secondary radars, radio navigation equipment, communication equipment, rolled rings, rubber products, powder metallurgy, forgings, and castings.
In addition, the company provides air data computer that measures pressure altitude, calibrated airspeed, true airspeed, Mach number, vertical speed, and temperature in the atmosphere.
Further, it offers various services in the areas of aircraft and helicopters MRO, and power plants, as well as systems, accessories, and avionics. The company also exports its products. It serves space, defense, and civil industries.
The company was incorporated in 1940 and is based in Bengaluru, India.
Stock analysis
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) currently trades at ₹4,836, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,542, 68.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹2,166 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹4,836 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹365.81, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹1,181 (bear) to ₹2,079 (bull), the price of ₹4,836 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited reported revenue of ₹318B in FY2025 versus ₹2.0T in FY2021, a compound −36.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹91.2B in FY2025, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.2T (≈ $34.1B) Large · P/E ratio 34.7 · P/S ratio 9.92 · EPS (TTM) ₹139.38 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 27.6% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −68%, HAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹1,181Fair Value ₹1,542Bull₹2,079
Price ₹4,836 · Downside -68.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹116.85 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−86.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−47.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+55.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+54.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.51.8% vs 31.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 27%
2025 sits 200% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.4% a year for the price and +9.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Hindustan Aeronautics Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 239 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−67.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)27.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)34.7× · Pricier than median
P/B8.16× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.92× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow0.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA41.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)75· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)66· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)38· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,542 versus a price of ₹4,836, about 68% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAL?
Our model-based fair value for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is ₹1,542 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹4,836.
What is the quality score of HAL?
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,542 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹1,181, optimistic scenario ₹2,079. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,542, about 68% lower versus a price of ₹4,836 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹1,181, optimistic scenario ₹2,079. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹338B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Hindustan Aeronautics Limited pay a dividend?
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +22.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -24.8 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HAL use?
Our models discount Hindustan Aeronautics Limited at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hindustan Aeronautics Limited that is +22.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited grew -24.8 % a year. The price currently implies +22.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (+22.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.58 %: that much free cash flow Hindustan Aeronautics Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hindustan Aeronautics Limited it is ₹1,542 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of ₹4,836. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hindustan Aeronautics Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, HAL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹4,836, fair value ₹1,542, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹4,836); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,542). For Hindustan Aeronautics Limited the two are ₹3,294 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hindustan Aeronautics Limited worth?
The market values Hindustan Aeronautics Limited at about ₹3.2T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is ₹4,836; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,542 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAL?
Our models span a range for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited: cautious scenario ₹1,181, base ₹1,542, optimistic ₹2,079 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price ₹4,836). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAL?
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.7 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,542 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.2, P/S 9.9, EV/EBITDA 41.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 24.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAL from its 52-week high?
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited trades at ₹4,836, about 5% below its 52-week high of ₹5,099 and 39% above the low of ₹3,479 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,542 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hindustan Aeronautics Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price ₹4,836, calculated fair value ₹1,542 (−68%), Quality Score 73/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAL calculated?
We run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,542, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was ₹4,836. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,542, about 68% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,079). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (73/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The market capitalisation of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is ₹3.2T (≈ $34.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 9.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Earnings per share at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited are ₹139.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The dividend yield of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 1.0% (payout 34.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The net margin of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 27.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
The operating margin of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Revenue at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is growing +14.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −47.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL)?
Earnings per share at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited are growing +14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) carry?
The net debt of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is ₹55.0B (fiscal year 2019, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026