Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Happy Forgings Limited ₹433, price ₹2,004, upside -78.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
33‑month range ₹751.87 – ₹2,420 · fair‑value band ₹193.79 – ₹781.11 · the ₹2,004 price screens above the ₹432.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Happy Forgings Limited manufactures and sells forgings and related components in India and internationally.
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Happy Forgings Limited manufactures and sells forgings and related components in India and internationally. The company offers crankshafts; differential cases; front axle beams and steering knuckles; railway parts, including camshafts, connecting rods, piston pins, spacers, and others; brake flanges and suspension brackets; transmission parts, such as shafts and spindles, crown wheels and pinions, rings, and connecting rods. It also offers windmill application products, including planet carrier, pinion shaft, and housing; oil and gas component, such as valve body; and bicycle pedals. It serves the original equipment manufacturers, manufacturers of commercial and passenger vehicles, farm equipment, and off highway and industrial equipment, as well as machinery for oil and gas, aerospace, power generation, railways, and wind turbine industries. Happy Forgings Limited was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Ludhiana, India.
Stock analysis
Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE) currently trades at ₹2,004, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹432.93, 78.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹834.72 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹2,004 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹151.08, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹193.79 (bear) to ₹781.11 (bull), the price of ₹2,004 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Happy Forgings Limited reported revenue of ₹15.5B in FY2025 versus ₹7.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.0B in FY2025, compounding +20.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹189B (≈ $2.0B) · P/E ratio 62.9 · P/S ratio 12.3 · EPS (TTM) ₹31.87 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 15.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −57% fair-value upside, at −78%, HAPPYFORGE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹24.16 to ₹1,434). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹193.79Fair Value ₹432.93Bull ₹781.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹27.87 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 25%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−78.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)62.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.24× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA40.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)61· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹432.93 versus a price of ₹2,004, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HAPPYFORGE?
Our model-based fair value for Happy Forgings Limited is ₹432.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹2,004.
What is the quality score of HAPPYFORGE?
Happy Forgings Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹432.93 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹193.79, optimistic scenario ₹781.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Happy Forgings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹432.93, about −78% upside versus a price of ₹2,004 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹193.79, optimistic scenario ₹781.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Happy Forgings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹15.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Happy Forgings Limited pay a dividend?
Happy Forgings Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Happy Forgings Limited it is ₹432.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹2,004. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Happy Forgings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HAPPYFORGE trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹2,004, fair value ₹432.93, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HAPPYFORGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹2,004); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹432.93). For Happy Forgings Limited the two are ₹1,571 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Happy Forgings Limited worth?
The market values Happy Forgings Limited at about ₹189B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹2,004; our models calculate a fair value of ₹432.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HAPPYFORGE?
Our models span a range for Happy Forgings Limited: cautious scenario ₹193.79, base ₹432.93, optimistic ₹781.11 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹2,004). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HAPPYFORGE?
Happy Forgings Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 62.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹432.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.9, P/S 12.2, EV/EBITDA 40.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Happy Forgings Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HAPPYFORGE from its 52-week high?
Happy Forgings Limited trades at ₹2,004, about 17% below its 52-week high of ₹2,420 and 123% above the low of ₹899.34 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹432.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Happy Forgings Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Happy Forgings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹2,004, calculated fair value ₹432.93 (−78%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HAPPYFORGE calculated?
We run Happy Forgings Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹432.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Happy Forgings Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹2,004. Our model-based fair value is ₹432.93, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Happy Forgings Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹781.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹193.79 to ₹781.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Happy Forgings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The market capitalisation of Happy Forgings Limited is ₹189B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Happy Forgings Limited is 12.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Earnings per share at Happy Forgings Limited are ₹31.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 62.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The dividend yield of Happy Forgings Limited is 0.2% (payout 12.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The net margin of Happy Forgings Limited is 19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Happy Forgings Limited is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Happy Forgings Limited is 17.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
The operating margin of Happy Forgings Limited is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Revenue at Happy Forgings Limited is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE)?
Earnings per share at Happy Forgings Limited are growing +23.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE) generate?
The free cash flow of Happy Forgings Limited is ₹10.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Happy Forgings Limited (HAPPYFORGE) carry?
The net debt of Happy Forgings Limited is ₹2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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