HBT Financial, Inc (HBT) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.1B
HBT Financial, Inc
HBT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +14.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.16 – $36.51 · fair‑value band $20.64 – $34.40 · the $36.35 price screens above the $27.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
HBT Financial, Inc (HBT) currently trades at $36.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.52, implying the stock looks roughly 24.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, HBT Financial, Inc generated revenue of $244M at a net margin of 28.3%. Revenue grew 17.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at $40.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.64 (bear case) to $34.40 (bull case); at $36.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -24%, HBT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($23.69) versus Dividend Discount ($9.35). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
HBT Financial, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Heartland Bank and Trust Company that provides financial products and services to consumers, businesses, and municipal entities in Illinois and Eastern Iowa.
Full company description
HBT Financial, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Heartland Bank and Trust Company that provides financial products and services to consumers, businesses, and municipal entities in Illinois and Eastern Iowa. The company offers deposit account services, such as noninterest-bearing demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, HSA, and IRA accounts. It also provides lending products, including non-owner occupied regulatory commercial real estate (CRE), construction and land development and multi-family; commercial and industrial and owner-occupied CRE; agricultural and farmland; one-to-four family residential loans; municipal, consumer, and other loans; residential mortgage origination and servicing; and traditional trust and investment services. In addition, the company offers digital banking services comprising online banking, mobile banking, digital payments, and personal financial management tools; small business and commercial checking accounts, and treasury management services; financial planning to consumers, trusts, and estates; and trustee and custodial services. Further, it provides investment management services; corporate retirement plan consulting and administration; retail brokerage services; farm management services, broker farmland sale, and crop insurance. The company was formerly known as Heartland Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to HBT Financial, Inc. in September 2019. HBT Financial, Inc. was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Bloomington, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HBT Financial, Inc reported revenue of $293M in FY2025 versus $164M in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $77.0M in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.
HBT screens 24% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HBT Financial beats second-quarter earnings and revenue forecasts
- HBT Financial (HBT) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- HBT Financial, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Pre-Market Earnings Report for July 27, 2026 : AZN, BOH, ARLP, KOF, HOPE, LKFN, HBT, NBN, BMRC, PERF
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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