HFCL Limited (HFCL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of HFCL Limited ₹25.53, price ₹227, upside -88.8%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value ₹25.53 · Strongly overvalued (−88.8%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!0.1% dividend yield · Token dividend
!Trails peers(5/13)
!Moderate moat47/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹52.14 – ₹251.24 · fair‑value band ₹22.84 – ₹43.07 · the ₹227.02 price screens above the ₹25.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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HFCL Limited manufactures and sells telecom products in India and internationally.
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HFCL Limited manufactures and sells telecom products in India and internationally. The company offers optical fiber cables, such as underground, aerial, microduct, FTTH, and micromodule cables; telecommunication products, including unlicensed band backhaul radios, Wi-Fi access points, routers, managed switches, antennas, network management solutions, and 5g product portfolio; defence product comprising electronic fuzes, electro optics, high capacity radio relay, software defined radios, and ground surveillance radars; and passive networking components, such as high density cabinets, joint closures, optical splitters, aerial cable accessories, fiber optic cable assemblies, and copper cable assemblies. It also provides network solutions for public telecommunications, defence and railway communications, and system integration services. The company was formerly known as Himachal Futuristic Communications Limited and changed its name to HFCL Limited in October 2019. HFCL Limited was incorporated in 1987 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
HFCL Limited (HFCL) currently trades at ₹227.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹25.53, 88.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹77.27 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹227.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹21.41, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹22.84 (bear) to ₹43.07 (bull), the price of ₹227.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HFCL Limited reported revenue of ₹49.5B in FY2026 versus ₹47.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹3.1B in FY2026, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹332B (≈ $3.5B) · P/E ratio 59.3 · P/S ratio 3.73 · EPS (TTM) ₹3.83 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 273% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −62% fair-value upside, at −89%, HFCL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (₹1.43 to ₹95.26). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear ₹22.84Fair Value ₹25.53Bull ₹43.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.83 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.7% vs 5.4%, steady
Profit margin 2004 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 12%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Communication Equipment · 302 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−88.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth119.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)59.3× · Pricier than median
P/B6.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.54× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA28.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)29· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HFCL Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HFCL
Frequently asked questions
Is HFCL Limited (HFCL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹25.53 versus a price of ₹227.02, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HFCL?
Our model-based fair value for HFCL Limited is ₹25.53 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹227.02.
What is the quality score of HFCL?
HFCL Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹25.53 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹22.84, optimistic scenario ₹43.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HFCL Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹25.53, about −89% upside versus a price of ₹227.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹22.84, optimistic scenario ₹43.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
HFCL Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹59.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does HFCL Limited pay a dividend?
HFCL Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HFCL Limited it is ₹25.53 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of ₹227.02. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HFCL Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, HFCL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹227.02, fair value ₹25.53, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HFCL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹227.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹25.53). For HFCL Limited the two are ₹201.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HFCL Limited worth?
The market values HFCL Limited at about ₹332B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is ₹227.02; our models calculate a fair value of ₹25.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HFCL?
Our models span a range for HFCL Limited: cautious scenario ₹22.84, base ₹25.53, optimistic ₹43.07 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price ₹227.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HFCL?
HFCL Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.3 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹25.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.8, P/S 5.5, EV/EBITDA 28.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Balance-sheet figures for HFCL Limited (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HFCL from its 52-week high?
HFCL Limited trades at ₹227.02, about 10% below its 52-week high of ₹251.24 and 273% above the low of ₹60.89 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹25.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HFCL Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Cisco Systems, Inc, Foxconn Industrial Internet Co, Zhongji Innolight Co, Eoptolink Technology Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HFCL Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price ₹227.02, calculated fair value ₹25.53 (−89%), Quality Score 43/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HFCL calculated?
We run HFCL Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹25.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. HFCL Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ₹227.02. Our model-based fair value is ₹25.53, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HFCL Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹43.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (₹22.84 to ₹43.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of HFCL Limited (HFCL) come from?
Earnings per share at HFCL Limited grew +1.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −3.9 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HFCL Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The market capitalisation of HFCL Limited is ₹332B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HFCL Limited is 3.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Earnings per share at HFCL Limited are ₹3.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The dividend yield of HFCL Limited is 0.1% (payout 5.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The net margin of HFCL Limited is 6.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HFCL Limited is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HFCL Limited is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
The operating margin of HFCL Limited is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Revenue at HFCL Limited is growing +120% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HFCL Limited (HFCL)?
Earnings per share at HFCL Limited are growing +31.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HFCL Limited (HFCL) generate?
The free cash flow of HFCL Limited is −₹8.2B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HFCL Limited (HFCL) carry?
The net debt of HFCL Limited is ₹12.8B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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