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Data-driven stock valuation

HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $9.9B · ISIN US42333L1035

At a glance

HG HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR logo HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR HLLGY · US
Price$40.21
Fair Value$18.19
Upside−54.8%
Quality58/100

A solid business, but trading 121% above our fair value of $18.19.

As of Aug 19, 2026, the fair value of HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR is $18.19 per share against a price of $40.21, so the fair value sits 55% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +3.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.55% dividend yield
!Trails peers (2/14)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 11 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $13.64 to $22.73

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 19, 2026, revised from $9.14 to $18.19 (+99.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −6.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$51.30 $10.24 Fair Value $18.19 Dec 2016 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.24 – $51.30 · fair‑value band $13.64 – $22.73 · the $40.21 price screens above the $18.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY) currently trades at $40.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.19, implying the stock looks roughly 121.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $30.93 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $40.21 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.11, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR generated revenue of $7.8B at a net margin of 1.2%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $269M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Scenario range: $13.64 (bear) to $22.73 (bull), the price of $40.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −55%, HLLGY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1849 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $27.25 $36.30 $48.37 81
Growth DCF $27.96 $36.46 $47.39 80
Owner Earnings $15.52 $20.11 $26.22 78
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $27.25 $36.30 $48.37 81
Owner Earnings $15.52 $20.11 $26.22 78
5Y Revenue Exit $22.45 $30.54 $40.27 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $33.31 $49.51 $67.34 75
5Y P/E Exit $15.74 $18.81 $21.69 72
10Y Revenue Exit $23.66 $31.03 $39.71 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $30.72 $43.45 $58.68 69
10Y P/E Exit $20.05 $23.36 $26.68 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.45 $5.11 $6.47 66
PEG = 1.0 $0.7600 $1.08 $1.41 57
EPV $14.15 $15.84 $17.29 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.22 $6.19 $8.20 69
DDM Multi-Stage $4.22 $5.92 $7.78 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $5.94 $7.92 $9.90 63
P/S Multiple $4.59 $6.12 $7.65 58
P/B Multiple $4.59 $6.12 $7.65 55
EV/EBIT $28.97 $37.47 $45.97 66
EV/EBITDA $42.06 $54.93 $67.80 67
EV/Revenue $20.66 $28.02 $35.39 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.93 $9.29 $13.86 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $27.96 $36.46 $47.39 80
Rev-Margin DCF $22.45 $30.93 $39.86 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.86 $9.59 $7.86 76
ROIC Compounder $14.18 $16.30 $18.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.34 $6.21 $8.07 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($30.93) versus Earnings-Based ($5.11). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 87.6 as of Jun 21, 2026
P/S ratio 0.93 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.4900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.6
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 44.9%
Net margin 1.1% FY2025
Return on equity 3.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $7.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −2.9% 3y avg −0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +52.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $532M FY2025
Net cash $269M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 31
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells lighting technology and electronic components for automotive industry. It operates through three segments: Lighting, Electronics, and Lifecycle Solutions.

Full company description

HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells lighting technology and electronic components for automotive industry. It operates through three segments: Lighting, Electronics, and Lifecycle Solutions. The Lighting segment offers headlamps, com-bination rear lamps, and body and interior lighting, as well as car body lighting including radomes, illuminated logos, and front phygital shields. The Electronics segment provides automated driving products, sensors and actuators, energy management products; and body electronics, including lighting electronics and access systems. The Lifecycle Solutions segment offers vehicle diagnostics, emissions testing, battery testing, light adjustment, and calibration service, as well as data-based services; and sells vehicle wear parts, spare parts, and accessories to dealers and independent workshops. This segment develops, manufactures, and distributes lighting and electronic products for special vehicles comprising construction vehicles and agricultural, buses, trucks, and trailers, motor homes, as well as marine sectors. The company was formerly known as HELLA KGaA Hueck & Co. and changed its name to HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA in October 2017. HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Lippstadt, Germany. HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA operates as a subsidiary of Forvia Germany Gmbh.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR reported revenue of €7.5B in FY2025 versus €6.3B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was €80.0M in FY2025, compounding −18.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$7.5B
Latest YoY
−6.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+32.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+32.4%
Dividend yield0.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −9.9% vs 10Y −6.1%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4.9% (2020) → 5.6% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop168% (2019) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +4.5%/yr
FY21 €6.3B
FY22 €7.6B
FY23 €8.0B
FY24 €8.0B
FY25 €7.5B
Net income −18.5%/yr
FY21 €181M
FY22 €601M
FY23 €264M
FY24 €353M
FY25 €80.0M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.6 %

of which total revenue +2.5 % · buybacks/dilution +7.8 %

EBIT margin −3.1 %
Tax rate −0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

HLLGY screens 121% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLLGY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Parts · 640 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside −55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 87.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 3.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.27× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 18.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 10.2× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+1.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+3.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.6 %
FCF yield on price5.96 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands roughly the growth the company recently delivered. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 16
FUTURE0 · sector 21
PAST13 · sector 28
HEALTH90 · sector 95
DIVIDEND11 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $87.89 $47.50 −46%
AutoZone, Inc AZO $2,983 $2,287 −23%
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 432,000 KRW 643,909 KRW +49%
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥57.67 ¥84.47 +46%
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹165.30 ₹80.63 −51%
Magna International Inc MGA $65.57 $68.17 +4%
Genuine Parts Company GPC $138.08 $58.07 −58%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹48,700 ₹11,534 −76%
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.82 ¥28.28 −38%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,063 ₹393.20 −81%

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Frequently asked questions

Is HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.19 versus a price of $40.21, about −55% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLLGY?
Our model-based fair value for HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR is $18.19 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.21.
What is the quality score of HLLGY?
HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.19 (as of Aug 19, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.64, optimistic scenario $22.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.19, about −55% upside versus a price of $40.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.64, optimistic scenario $22.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY)?
HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.8B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HLLGY?
The net profit margin of HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR is about 1.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR pay a dividend?
HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.55% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR (HLLGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +1.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.4 % per year. As of Aug 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLLGY use?
Our models discount HELLA GmbH & Co KgaA ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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