Hulamin (HLM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hulamin stock ZAR 6.55, price ZAR 2.21, upside +196.4%, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R1.58 – R5.23 · fair‑value band R3.56 – R6.55 · the R2.21 price screens below the R6.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Hulamin Limited engages in the manufacture and supply of fabricated and rolled semi-finished aluminum products in South Africa, North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Australasia, South America, and rest of Africa.
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It offers aluminum products, including can stocks, foil, plates, smelter busbar plates and flexes, flat rolled sheets, coils, and tread sheets, as well as aluminum foil containers and aluminum for automotive heat exchange products. The company is also involved in property rental activities.
It serves automotive, building, electrical, general engineering, packaging, renewable energy, and transport industries. The company was formerly known as Hulett Aluminium (Pty) Limited and changed its name to Hulamin Limited in 2007.
Hulamin Limited was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Hulamin (HLM) currently trades at R2.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R6.55, implying the stock looks roughly 66.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R3.56 (bear) to R6.55 (bull), the price of R2.21 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hulamin reported revenue of 13.0B ZAR in FY2025 versus 13.0B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −148M ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 721M ZAR Micro · P/E ratio 5.4 · P/S ratio 0.06 · EPS (TTM) R0.4100 · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0% · Operating margin 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at 196%, HLM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR3.56Fair Value R6.55BullR6.55
Price R2.21 · Upside +196.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.3302 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.0% (2019) → 0.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+196.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets−2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hulamin Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLM
Frequently asked questions
Is Hulamin (HLM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R6.55 versus a price of R2.21, about +196% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HLM?
Our model-based fair value for Hulamin is R6.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R2.21.
What is the quality score of HLM?
Hulamin has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hulamin (HLM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R6.55 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario R3.56, optimistic scenario R6.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hulamin stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R6.55, about +196% upside versus a price of R2.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R3.56, optimistic scenario R6.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hulamin (HLM)?
Hulamin reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hulamin (HLM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hulamin it is R6.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R2.21. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hulamin stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HLM trades below its calculated fair value: price R2.21, fair value R6.55, a gap of about +196% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R2.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R6.55). For Hulamin the two are R4.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hulamin worth?
The market values Hulamin at about 721M ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R2.21; our models calculate a fair value of R6.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLM?
Our models span a range for Hulamin: cautious scenario R3.56, base R6.55, optimistic R6.55 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R2.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLM?
Hulamin trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R6.55 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 230.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HLM?
The PEG ratio of Hulamin is 230.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hulamin (HLM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hulamin (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLM from its 52-week high?
Hulamin trades at R2.21, about 17% below its 52-week high of R2.65 and 40% above the low of R1.58 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R6.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hulamin?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ATI Inc, Carpenter Technology Corporation, Mueller Industries, Inc, Bharat Forge Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hulamin stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R2.21, calculated fair value R6.55 (+196%), Quality Score 36/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLM calculated?
We run Hulamin through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R6.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Hulamin currently trades 66 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hulamin (HLM)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was R2.21. Our model-based fair value is R6.55, about +196% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hulamin right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R3.56). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R3.56 to R6.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hulamin (HLM) come from?
Earnings per share at Hulamin grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hulamin
How large is the market capitalisation of Hulamin (HLM)?
The market capitalisation of Hulamin is 721M ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hulamin (HLM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hulamin is 0.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hulamin (HLM)?
Earnings per share at Hulamin are R0.4100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hulamin (HLM)?
The net margin of Hulamin is 0.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hulamin (HLM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hulamin is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hulamin (HLM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hulamin is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hulamin (HLM)?
The operating margin of Hulamin is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hulamin (HLM)?
Revenue at Hulamin is growing +1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hulamin (HLM)?
Earnings per share at Hulamin are growing −12.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hulamin (HLM) generate?
The free cash flow of Hulamin is −287M ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hulamin (HLM) carry?
The net debt of Hulamin is 1.7B ZAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026