Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hongli Group Inc. $0.35, price $2.55, upside -86.3%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.3500 · Strongly overvalued (−86.3%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers(6/9)
!Narrow moat38/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range $0.4290 – $5.30 · fair‑value band $0.2100 – $0.4900 · the $2.55 price screens above the $0.3500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Hongli Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells customized steel profiles in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Hongli Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells customized steel profiles in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It provides cold roll formed steel profile products in various forms and shapes, such as angles, bows, beams, brackets, channels, cross-members, flanges, hats, panels, plates, posts, rails, stakes, and tracks. The company serves mining and excavation, construction, agriculture, and transportation industries. Hongli Group Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Weifang, the People's Republic of China. Hongli Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Hongli Development Limited.
Stock analysis
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares (HLP) currently trades at $2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3500, 86.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $0.5200 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $2.55 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1300, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2100 (bear) to $0.4900 (bull), the price of $2.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares reported revenue of $19.6M in FY2025 versus $21.7M in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $32.8M · P/E ratio 14.6 · P/S ratio 1.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.0300 · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 3.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 494% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −86%, HLP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2100Fair Value $0.3500Bull $0.4900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0227 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−33.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−33.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+60.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.8% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (17 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 405 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/9 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth40.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.6× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HLP
Frequently asked questions
Is Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3500 versus a price of $2.55, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HLP?
Our model-based fair value for Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is $0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.55.
What is the quality score of HLP?
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3500 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.4900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3500, about −86% upside versus a price of $2.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2100, optimistic scenario $0.4900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $19.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares would have to grow free cash flow by +60.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HLP use?
Our models discount Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares that is +60.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +60.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares (+60.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.35 %: that much free cash flow Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares it is $0.3500 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $2.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HLP trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.55, fair value $0.3500, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HLP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3500). For Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares the two are $2.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares worth?
The market values Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares at about $32.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $2.55; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HLP?
Our models span a range for Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares: cautious scenario $0.2100, base $0.3500, optimistic $0.4900 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $2.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HLP?
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.3500 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HLP from its 52-week high?
Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares trades at $2.55, at its 52-week high of $2.55 and 494% above the low of $0.4290 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $2.55, calculated fair value $0.3500 (−86%), Quality Score 44/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HLP calculated?
We run Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.55. Our model-based fair value is $0.3500, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2100 to $0.4900) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The market capitalisation of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is $32.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is 1.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Earnings per share at Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares are $0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The net margin of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
The operating margin of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Revenue at Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is growing +40.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hongli Group Inc. (HLP)?
Earnings per share at Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares are growing +13.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hongli Group Inc. (HLP) carry?
The net debt of Hongli Group Inc. Ordinary Shares is $9.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026