Hongli Group (HLP) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $32.8M
Hongli Group
HLP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +39.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range $0.4290 – $5.30 · fair‑value band $0.2700 – $0.4600 · the $1.30 price screens above the $0.3300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Hongli Group (HLP) currently trades at $1.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3300, implying the stock looks roughly 74.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hongli Group generated revenue of $19.6M at a net margin of 9.9%. Revenue grew 40.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.5%. Net debt stands at $9.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.2700 (bear case) to $0.4600 (bull case); at $1.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 280% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -75%, HLP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($0.5200) versus Growth DCF ($0.0700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hongli Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells customized steel profiles in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Full company description
Hongli Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells customized steel profiles in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It provides cold roll formed steel profile products in various forms and shapes, such as angles, bows, beams, brackets, channels, cross-members, flanges, hats, panels, plates, posts, rails, stakes, and tracks. The company serves mining and excavation, construction, agriculture, and transportation industries. Hongli Group Inc. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Weifang, the People's Republic of China. Hongli Group Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Hongli Development Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hongli Group reported revenue of $19.6M in FY2025 versus $21.7M in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9M in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
HLP screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
| Ternium S.A TXR | 17,780 ARS | 27,210 ARS | +53% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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