HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of HMC Capital Limited $2.59, price $2.30, upside +12.6%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch HMC Capital Limited for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range $1.92 – $7.76 · fair‑value band $2.49 – $2.65 · the $2.30 price screens below the $2.59 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow HMC Capital in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether HMC Capital is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
HMC Capital Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages real estate focused funds in Australia. The company invests in high-conviction global megatrends and scalable real assets on behalf of individuals, large institutions, and super funds. The company was formerly known as Home Consortium Limited.
Show more
HMC Capital Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and manages real estate focused funds in Australia. The company invests in high-conviction global megatrends and scalable real assets on behalf of individuals, large institutions, and super funds. The company was formerly known as Home Consortium Limited. HMC Capital Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF) currently trades at $2.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.59, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $2.58 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $2.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.13, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.49 (bear) to $2.65 (bull), the price of $2.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
HMC Capital Limited reported revenue of A$234M in FY2025 versus A$69.4M in FY2021, a compound +35.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$147M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $949M · P/S ratio 3.73 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2300 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 62.9% · Return on equity −0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 39.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 13%, HMCLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.49Fair Value $2.59Bull $2.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+188.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 30%
2025 sits 102% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−30.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−1.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−21.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HMC Capital Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMCLF
Frequently asked questions
Is HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.59 versus a price of $2.30, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HMCLF?
Our model-based fair value for HMC Capital Limited is $2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.30.
What is the quality score of HMCLF?
HMC Capital Limited has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.59 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.49, optimistic scenario $2.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HMC Capital Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.59, about +13% upside versus a price of $2.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.49, optimistic scenario $2.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
HMC Capital Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$213M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does HMC Capital Limited pay a dividend?
HMC Capital Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HMC Capital Limited it is $2.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HMC Capital Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HMCLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.30, fair value $2.59, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMCLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.59). For HMC Capital Limited the two are $0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HMC Capital Limited worth?
The market values HMC Capital Limited at about $949M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.30; our models calculate a fair value of $2.59 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMCLF?
Our models span a range for HMC Capital Limited: cautious scenario $2.49, base $2.59, optimistic $2.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for HMC Capital Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.2%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMCLF from its 52-week high?
HMC Capital Limited trades at $2.30, about 22% below its 52-week high of $2.96 and 20% above the low of $1.92 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.59 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HMC Capital Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, Stockland, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HMC Capital Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.30, calculated fair value $2.59 (+13%), Quality Score 27/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMCLF calculated?
We run HMC Capital Limited through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.59, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HMC Capital Limited currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $2.30. Our model-based fair value is $2.59, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HMC Capital Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band ($2.49 to $2.65), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of HMC Capital Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The market capitalisation of HMC Capital Limited is $949M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HMC Capital Limited is 3.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Earnings per share at HMC Capital Limited are $−0.2300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The dividend yield of HMC Capital Limited is 7.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The net margin of HMC Capital Limited is 62.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HMC Capital Limited is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HMC Capital Limited is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
The operating margin of HMC Capital Limited is 39.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Revenue at HMC Capital Limited is growing −21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF)?
Earnings per share at HMC Capital Limited are growing −90.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF) generate?
The free cash flow of HMC Capital Limited is −A$15.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HMC Capital Limited (HMCLF) carry?
The net debt of HMC Capital Limited is A$8.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch HMC Capital Limited in the live analysis
One click puts HMC Capital Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026