Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock $162, price $101, upside +60.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.56 – $238.30 · fair‑value band $121.75 – $202.92 · the $101.46 price screens below the $162.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes in the United States.
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It offers single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes with amenities, such as clubhouses, swimming pools, tennis courts, tot lots, and open areas.
The company markets and builds homes for first-time buyers, move-up buyers, luxury buyers, active lifestyle buyers, and empty nesters. It also provides mortgage loans and title services. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is based in Matawan, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) currently trades at $101.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $162.34, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $232.41 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $101.46 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.06, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $121.75 (bear) to $202.92 (bull), the price of $101.46 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $63.9M in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $651M Small · P/E ratio 97.6 · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) $1.04 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 60%, HOV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$121.75Fair Value $162.34Bull$202.92
Price $101.46 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$146.46$232.61$332.2280
Growth DCF$147.28$222.83$305.6679
Residual Income$117.57$118.42$125.2176
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$146.46$232.61$332.2280
Owner Earnings$43.05$96.78$158.9174
5Y Revenue Exit$63.41$127.42$203.2770
5Y EBITDA Exit$69.87$139.19$214.8073
5Y P/E Exit$96.15$187.08$277.9869
10Y Revenue Exit$98.11$157.41$227.5766
10Y EBITDA Exit$103.87$163.94$234.5268
10Y P/E Exit$117.33$190.49$272.6163
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$84.78$233.58$306.6465
Lynch FV$46.52$66.46$86.3961
PEG = 1.0$46.52$66.46$86.3957
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$13.38$21.39$26.8469
DDM Multi-Stage$13.38$18.73$23.0367
Multiples
P/E Multiple$205.72$274.30$342.8763
P/S Multiple$158.97$211.96$264.9558
P/B Multiple$113.51$151.35$189.1955
EV/EBIT$58.33$120.56$182.7962
EV/EBITDA$20.46$70.07$119.6761
EV/Revenuen/a$51.42$105.3550
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$81.11$108.69$162.2254
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$147.28$222.83$305.6679
Rev-Margin DCF$63.41$132.88$212.2970
Economic Profit
Residual Income$117.57$118.42$125.2176
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$162.69$232.41$302.1467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.8M and none bought.
SaleJ Larry SorsbyDirector1,032 shares at $142.57$147,144Jun 25, 2026
SaleAra K HovnanianChairman of the Board & CEO, Director, 10% owner12,880 shares at $125.78$1.6MJun 22, 2026
Plus 20 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−28.1% vs −14.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−11.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $162.34 versus a price of $101.46, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HOV?
Our model-based fair value for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is $162.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $101.46.
What is the quality score of HOV?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $162.34 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $121.75, optimistic scenario $202.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $162.34, about +60% upside versus a price of $101.46 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $121.75, optimistic scenario $202.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Hovnanian Enterprises Inc pay a dividend?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.77% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc has a dividend yield of 1.8%.
What growth is priced into Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOV use?
Our models discount Hovnanian Enterprises Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hovnanian Enterprises Inc that is +0.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc grew +4.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +0.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (+0.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.54 %: that much free cash flow Hovnanian Enterprises Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hovnanian Enterprises Inc it is $162.34 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $101.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HOV trades below its calculated fair value: price $101.46, fair value $162.34, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($101.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($162.34). For Hovnanian Enterprises Inc the two are $60.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc worth?
The market values Hovnanian Enterprises Inc at about $651M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $101.46; our models calculate a fair value of $162.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOV?
Our models span a range for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc: cautious scenario $121.75, base $162.34, optimistic $202.92 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $101.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOV?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $162.34 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.7 (reported for FY2025: 10.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2020 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 3.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HOV?
The PEG ratio of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 2.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 1.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOV from its 52-week high?
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc trades at $101.46, about 31% below its 52-week high of $147.55 and 12% above the low of $90.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $162.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hovnanian Enterprises Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hovnanian Enterprises Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $101.46, calculated fair value $162.34 (+60%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOV calculated?
We run Hovnanian Enterprises Inc through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $162.34 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hovnanian Enterprises Inc currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $101.46. Our model-based fair value is $162.34, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hovnanian Enterprises Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (47/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($121.75). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The market capitalisation of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is $651M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Earnings per share at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc are $1.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The dividend yield of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 1.8% (payout 172%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The net margin of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
The operating margin of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Revenue at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV)?
Earnings per share at Hovnanian Enterprises Inc are growing −26.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hovnanian Enterprises Inc (HOV) carry?
The net debt of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc is $657M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026