Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc (HOV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $772M
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc
HOV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $141.97 to $200.88 (+41.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +12.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 46% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($166.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($166.57 to $299.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.56 – $238.30 · fair‑value band $166.57 – $299.97 · the $137.78 price screens below the $200.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc (HOV) currently trades at $137.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $200.88, implying the stock looks roughly 45.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 1.3%. Revenue declined 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.4%. Net debt stands at $657M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $166.57 (bear case) to $299.97 (bull case); at $137.78, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at 46%, HOV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($234.73) versus Dividend Discount ($24.20). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes in the United States. It offers single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes with amenities, such as clubhouses, swimming pools, tennis courts, tot lots, and open areas.
Full company description
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, markets, and sells residential homes in the United States. It offers single-family detached homes, attached townhomes and condominiums, urban infill, and active lifestyle homes with amenities, such as clubhouses, swimming pools, tennis courts, tot lots, and open areas. The company markets and builds homes for first-time buyers, move-up buyers, luxury buyers, active lifestyle buyers, and empty nesters. It also provides mortgage loans and title services. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is based in Matawan, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $63.9M in FY2025, compounding −43.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $149.39 | $214.93 | +44% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $124.75 | $193.56 | +55% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $83.89 | $146.58 | +75% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,479 | $7,821 | +21% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $150.76 | $225.76 | +50% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.13 | $144.47 | +100% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $228.65 | $209.51 | -8% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $73.83 | $104.26 | +41% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $82.70 | $75.12 | -9% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $569.16 | $421.10 | -26% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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