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Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hoa Phat Group JSC VND 26,745, price VND 21,050, upside +27.1%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · VN · ISIN VN000000HPG4

HP Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Hoa Phat Group JSC

HPG · VN

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value 26,745 VND · Undervalued (+27%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·2.16% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (8/13)
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

29,542 VND 8,184 VND Fair Value 26,745 VND Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8,184 VND – 29,542 VND · fair‑value band 18,722 VND – 34,769 VND · the 21,050 VND price screens below the 26,745 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company produces and sells steel products in Vietnam.

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Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company produces and sells steel products in Vietnam. It engages in financial investments; integrated investment in construction; exploration and exploitation of minerals, metal ores, sand, stones, and gravel; production of cast iron, steel, structural metal products, tanks, reservoirs, containers, plated and non-plated steel pipes, inox pipes, rolled steel, roofing sheets, galvanized steel sheets, color coated steel sheets, and galvalum steel sheets; production and trading of non-ferrous metals and metal scraps; trading and import-export of steel, iron, metals, metal ores, and steel-making supplies; mechanical processing, metal treatment, and coating; production, trading, and assembly of construction and mining machinery; leasing machines, equipment, and motor vehicles; dealing in automobiles, motorcycles, transport vehicles, and parts for transport and mining sectors; production, trading, assembly, installation, repair, and maintenance of electrical, electronic, optical, medical, household, and civil electrical appliances; manufacturing and trading of air-conditioners, refrigeration products, freezers, and refrigerators; production and trading of plastic products; civil and industrial construction; and construction of railway works. it is also involved in domestic and foreign investment advisory; advertising; general support services; raising livestock; provision of livestock raising services; processing and preserving of meat and meat products; production of animal feeds for cattle, poultry, and aquaculture; production of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds; trading agricultural equipment, machinery, and accessories; restaurants and mobile food service activities; provision of catering services; beverage serving services; coastal, inland waterway, and ocean transportation; and entrusted export-import activities. Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Hung Yen, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) currently trades at 21,050 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 26,745 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 21.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 40,248 VND per share, and 10 of the 16 models we run sit above the 21,050 VND price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10,251 VND, and 6 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 18,722 VND (bear) to 34,769 VND (bull), the price of 21,050 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hoa Phat Group JSC reported revenue of 156T VND in FY2025 versus 150T VND in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 15.5T VND in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 178T VND · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.85 · EPS (TTM) 2,463 VND · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 27%, HPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 18,722 VND Fair Value 26,745 VND Bull 34,769 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,469 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV 19,504 VND 23,346 VND 26,762 VND 74
ROIC Compounder 21,442 VND 30,802 VND 43,955 VND 71
Residual Income 14,343 VND 17,750 VND 46,696 VND 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12,446 VND 56,122 VND 76,945 VND 64
Lynch FV 14,644 VND 20,920 VND 27,196 VND 61
PEG = 1.0 14,644 VND 20,920 VND 27,196 VND 57
EPV 19,504 VND 23,346 VND 26,762 VND 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 41.63 VND 90.88 VND 152.91 VND 65
DDM Multi-Stage 41.63 VND 74.45 VND 94.71 VND 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 38,436 VND 51,248 VND 64,060 VND 63
P/S Multiple 23,336 VND 31,115 VND 38,894 VND 58
P/B Multiple 23,336 VND 31,115 VND 38,894 VND 55
EV/EBIT 41,279 VND 55,796 VND 70,313 VND 66
EV/EBITDA 43,936 VND 59,338 VND 74,740 VND 67
EV/Revenue 19,746 VND 29,182 VND 38,618 VND 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7,650 VND 10,251 VND 15,300 VND 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 14,343 VND 17,750 VND 46,696 VND 68
ROIC Compounder 21,442 VND 30,802 VND 43,955 VND 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 28,174 VND 40,248 VND 52,322 VND 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 13%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +27% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 41% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.5× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.38× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.04× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)69 · sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)66 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)43 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.66 $116.05 −53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $233.99 $127.14 −46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,267 ₹1,127 −11%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹184.97 ₹147.13 −20%
Reliance, Inc RS $386.95 $211.57 −45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.73 ¥8.07 +41%
POSCO Holdings PKX $59.05 $68.58 +16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.12 ¥0.5500 −74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,141 ₹516.27 −55%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,857 ₹771.10 −58%

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26,745 VND +21%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoa Phat Group JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPG

Frequently asked questions

Is Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 26,745 VND versus a price of 21,050 VND, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HPG?
Our model-based fair value for Hoa Phat Group JSC is 26,745 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21,050 VND.
What is the quality score of HPG?
Hoa Phat Group JSC has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 26,745 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 18,722 VND, optimistic scenario 34,769 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoa Phat Group JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 26,745 VND, about +27% upside versus a price of 21,050 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 18,722 VND, optimistic scenario 34,769 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Hoa Phat Group JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 171T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hoa Phat Group JSC pay a dividend?
Hoa Phat Group JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoa Phat Group JSC it is 26,745 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 21,050 VND. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoa Phat Group JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HPG trades below its calculated fair value: price 21,050 VND, fair value 26,745 VND, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21,050 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (26,745 VND). For Hoa Phat Group JSC the two are 5,695 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoa Phat Group JSC worth?
The market values Hoa Phat Group JSC at about 178T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 21,050 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 26,745 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPG?
Our models span a range for Hoa Phat Group JSC: cautious scenario 18,722 VND, base 26,745 VND, optimistic 34,769 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 21,050 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HPG?
Hoa Phat Group JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 26,745 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoa Phat Group JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPG from its 52-week high?
Hoa Phat Group JSC trades at 21,050 VND, about 20% below its 52-week high of 26,426 VND and 3% above the low of 20,350 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 26,745 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoa Phat Group JSC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoa Phat Group JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 21,050 VND, calculated fair value 26,745 VND (+27%), Quality Score 31/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPG calculated?
We run Hoa Phat Group JSC through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 26,745 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hoa Phat Group JSC currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 21,050 VND. Our model-based fair value is 26,745 VND, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoa Phat Group JSC right now?
A fairly wide model range (18,722 VND to 34,769 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Hoa Phat Group JSC

How large is the market capitalisation of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The market capitalisation of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 178T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 0.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Earnings per share at Hoa Phat Group JSC are 2,463 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The dividend yield of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 2.2% (payout 18.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The net margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The operating margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Revenue at Hoa Phat Group JSC is growing +40.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Earnings per share at Hoa Phat Group JSC are growing +169% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) generate?
The free cash flow of Hoa Phat Group JSC is −8.4T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) carry?
The net debt of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 83.9T VND (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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