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Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hoa Phat Group JSC stock VND 23,576, price VND 21,200, upside +11.2%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials VN · ISIN VN000000HPG4

HP Hoa Phat Group JSC logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Hoa Phat Group JSC

HPG · VN
Speculative

The stock costs 10% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value 23,576 VND · Undervalued (10%)
Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (8/13)
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +71%, profit +106%.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.6 %/yr in VND)
2.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Moderate moat 59/100 · thin data
Quality 35/100
Negative free cash flow
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩VinMetal could erode market share in HRC and special steel🚩EU CBAM could impose carbon costs on exports
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

29,542 VND 8,184 VND Fair Value 23,576 VND Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8,184 VND – 29,542 VND · fair‑value band 17,682 VND – 29,470 VND · the 21,200 VND price screens below the 23,576 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company produces and sells steel products in Vietnam.

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It engages in financial investments; integrated investment in construction; exploration and exploitation of minerals, metal ores, sand, stones, and gravel; production of cast iron, steel, structural metal products, tanks, reservoirs, containers, plated and non-plated steel pipes, inox pipes, rolled steel, roofing sheets, galvanized steel sheets, color coated steel sheets, and galvalum steel sheets; production and trading of non-ferrous metals and metal scraps; trading and import-export of steel, iron, metals, metal ores, and steel-making supplies; mechanical processing, metal treatment, and coating; production, trading, and assembly of construction and mining machinery; leasing machines, equipment, and motor vehicles; dealing in automobiles, motorcycles, transport vehicles, and parts for transport and mining sectors; production, trading, assembly, installation, repair, and maintenance of electrical, electronic, optical, medical, household, and civil electrical appliances; manufacturing and trading of air-conditioners, refrigeration products, freezers, and refrigerators; production and trading of plastic products; civil and industrial construction; and construction of railway works. it is also involved in domestic and foreign investment advisory; advertising; general support services; raising livestock; provision of livestock raising services; processing and preserving of meat and meat products; production of animal feeds for cattle, poultry, and aquaculture; production of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds; trading agricultural equipment, machinery, and accessories; restaurants and mobile food service activities; provision of catering services; beverage serving services; coastal, inland waterway, and ocean transportation; and entrusted export-import activities.

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Hung Yen, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) currently trades at 21,200 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 23,576 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 10% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 30,354 VND per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the 21,200 VND price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10,232 VND, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 17,682 VND (bear) to 29,470 VND (bull), the price of 21,200 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hoa Phat Group JSC reported revenue of 156T VND in FY2025 versus 150T VND in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 15.5T VND in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 179T VND (≈ $7.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) 3,176 VND · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 11%, HPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 17,682 VND Fair Value 23,576 VND Bull 29,470 VND
Price 21,200 VND · Upside +11.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,326 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 12,654 VND 13,743 VND 16,805 VND 76
EPV 12,938 VND 14,718 VND 16,155 VND 74
ROIC Compounder 12,938 VND 14,718 VND 17,187 VND 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12,446 VND 56,123 VND 76,946 VND 64
Lynch FV 14,644 VND 20,920 VND 27,196 VND 61
PEG = 1.0 14,644 VND 20,920 VND 27,196 VND 57
EPV 12,938 VND 14,718 VND 16,155 VND 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 29.50 VND 48.77 VND 62.69 VND 68
DDM Multi-Stage 29.50 VND 46.56 VND 52.53 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 23,336 VND 31,115 VND 38,894 VND 63
P/S Multiple 20,802 VND 27,736 VND 34,670 VND 58
P/B Multiple 34,362 VND 45,816 VND 57,271 VND 55
EV/EBIT 15,470 VND 23,939 VND 32,407 VND 65
EV/EBITDA 15,737 VND 24,294 VND 32,850 VND 66
EV/Revenue 9,481 VND 17,802 VND 26,123 VND 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7,636 VND 10,232 VND 15,272 VND 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 12,654 VND 13,743 VND 16,805 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 12,938 VND 14,718 VND 17,187 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 21,248 VND 30,354 VND 39,460 VND 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 40
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 22
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 48
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 31
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 75
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 27
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 20
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 13%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +11.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 20.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 12.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 15.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 70.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 6.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.39× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.83× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)48 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 38
PAST (return on equity)80 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)43 · sector 51

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥6.11 ¥8.07 +32% vs HPG
POSCO Holdings PKX $48.90 $44.09 −10% vs HPG
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.30 ₹148.06 −21% vs HPG
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,357 ₹1,029 −24% vs HPG
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €54.82 €36.10 −34% vs HPG
Reliance, Inc RS $417.00 $211.54 −49% vs HPG
Nucor Corporation NUE $244.97 $116.49 −52% vs HPG
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,165 ₹516.03 −56% vs HPG
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $222.90 $89.54 −60% vs HPG
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥1.99 ¥0.5400 −73% vs HPG

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Hoa Phat Group JSC: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoa Phat Group JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPG

Frequently asked questions

Is Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 23,576 VND versus a price of 21,200 VND, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HPG?
Our model-based fair value for Hoa Phat Group JSC is 23,576 VND (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 21,200 VND.
What is the quality score of HPG?
Hoa Phat Group JSC has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 23,576 VND (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 17,682 VND, optimistic scenario 29,470 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoa Phat Group JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 23,576 VND, about +11% upside versus a price of 21,200 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 17,682 VND, optimistic scenario 29,470 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Hoa Phat Group JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 216T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Hoa Phat Group JSC pay a dividend?
Hoa Phat Group JSC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hoa Phat Group JSC pays a dividend of 454.55 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.1%. The last ex-dividend date was May 11, 2026. The payout ratio is 14.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoa Phat Group JSC it is 23,576 VND per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 21,200 VND. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hoa Phat Group JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, HPG trades below its calculated fair value: price 21,200 VND, fair value 23,576 VND, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (21,200 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (23,576 VND). For Hoa Phat Group JSC the two are 2,376 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoa Phat Group JSC worth?
The market values Hoa Phat Group JSC at about 179T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 21,200 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 23,576 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPG?
Our models span a range for Hoa Phat Group JSC: cautious scenario 17,682 VND, base 23,576 VND, optimistic 29,470 VND per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 21,200 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HPG?
Hoa Phat Group JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 23,576 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoa Phat Group JSC (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 20.0%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPG from its 52-week high?
Hoa Phat Group JSC trades at 21,200 VND, about 19% below its 52-week high of 26,247 VND and 6% above the low of 20,050 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 23,576 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoa Phat Group JSC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoa Phat Group JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 21,200 VND, calculated fair value 23,576 VND (+11%), Quality Score 35/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPG calculated?
We run Hoa Phat Group JSC through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 23,576 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hoa Phat Group JSC currently trades 10% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 21,200 VND. Our model-based fair value is 23,576 VND, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoa Phat Group JSC right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Hoa Phat Group JSC

How large is the market capitalisation of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The market capitalisation of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 179T VND (≈ $7.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Earnings per share at Hoa Phat Group JSC are 3,176 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The dividend yield of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 2.1% (payout 14.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The net margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 12.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
The operating margin of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Revenue at Hoa Phat Group JSC is growing +70.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG)?
Earnings per share at Hoa Phat Group JSC are growing +106% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) generate?
The free cash flow of Hoa Phat Group JSC is −8.4T VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hoa Phat Group JSC (HPG) carry?
The net debt of Hoa Phat Group JSC is 83.9T VND (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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