Hoa Phat Group (HPG) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · VN · Market cap 184T VND

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• A fairly wide model range (15,375 VND to 29,574 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8,184 VND – 29,542 VND · fair‑value band 15,375 VND – 29,574 VND · the 22,000 VND price screens above the 21,964 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Hoa Phat Group (HPG) currently trades at 22,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 21,964 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 0.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Hoa Phat Group generated revenue of 171T VND at a net margin of 12.3%. Revenue grew 40.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at 83.9T VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 15,375 VND (bear case) to 29,574 VND (bull case); at 22,000 VND, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 0%, HPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (33,052 VND) versus Dividend Discount (74.45 VND). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company produces and sells steel products in Vietnam. It engages in financial investments; integrated investment in construction; exploration and exploitation of minerals, metal ores, sand, stones, and gravel; production of cast iron, steel, structural metal products, tanks, reservoirs, containers, plated and non-plated steel …

Full company description

Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company produces and sells steel products in Vietnam. It engages in financial investments; integrated investment in construction; exploration and exploitation of minerals, metal ores, sand, stones, and gravel; production of cast iron, steel, structural metal products, tanks, reservoirs, containers, plated and non-plated steel pipes, inox pipes, rolled steel, roofing sheets, galvanized steel sheets, color coated steel sheets, and galvalum steel sheets; production and trading of non-ferrous metals and metal scraps; trading and import-export of steel, iron, metals, metal ores, and steel-making supplies; mechanical processing, metal treatment, and coating; production, trading, and assembly of construction and mining machinery; leasing machines, equipment, and motor vehicles; dealing in automobiles, motorcycles, transport vehicles, and parts for transport and mining sectors; production, trading, assembly, installation, repair, and maintenance of electrical, electronic, optical, medical, household, and civil electrical appliances; manufacturing and trading of air-conditioners, refrigeration products, freezers, and refrigerators; production and trading of plastic products; civil and industrial construction; and construction of railway works. it is also involved in domestic and foreign investment advisory; advertising; general support services; raising livestock; provision of livestock raising services; processing and preserving of meat and meat products; production of animal feeds for cattle, poultry, and aquaculture; production of fertilizers and nitrogen compounds; trading agricultural equipment, machinery, and accessories; restaurants and mobile food service activities; provision of catering services; beverage serving services; coastal, inland waterway, and ocean transportation; and entrusted export-import activities. Hoa Phat Group Joint Stock Company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Hung Yen, Vietnam.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hoa Phat Group reported revenue of 156T VND in FY2025 versus 150T VND in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 15.5T VND in FY2025, compounding −18.2%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.