Hoasen Group (HSG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hoasen Group VND 10,042, price VND 10,000, upside +0.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 5,196 VND – 29,370 VND · fair‑value band 8,493 VND – 13,055 VND · the 10,000 VND price screens below the 10,042 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hoa Sen Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and trading steel sheet in Vietnam and internationally.
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Hoa Sen Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and trading steel sheet in Vietnam and internationally. The company is involved in the production of galvanized, pre-painted galvanized, aluminum-zinc alloy coated, and other alloy coated steel sheets, as well as steel and galvanized purlins; black, galvanized, and other alloy coated steel pipes; and galvanized meshes, wires, and other wires. It engages in the production and trading of plastic building materials; trading of building materials, production materials, and consumer goods; leasing warehouses, and freight transport; construction of industrial and civil facilities; production of cold rolled coil; and leasing of machinery, equipment, and other tangible goods. The company was incorporated in 2001 is headquartered in Di An, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Hoasen Group (HSG) currently trades at 10,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10,042 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 0.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 15,905 VND per share, and 17 of the 23 models we run sit above the 10,000 VND price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 3,338 VND, and 6 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 8,493 VND (bear) to 13,055 VND (bull), the price of 10,000 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Hoasen Group reported revenue of 36.5T VND in FY2025 versus 48.7T VND in FY2021, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was 735B VND in FY2025, compounding −35.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 9.2T VND · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) 634.52 VND · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 2.0% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 0%, HSG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8,493 VNDFair Value 10,042 VNDBull 13,055 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (625.83 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ −18.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 123% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 411 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoasen Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSG
Frequently asked questions
Is Hoasen Group (HSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10,042 VND versus a price of 10,000 VND, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HSG?
Our model-based fair value for Hoasen Group is 10,042 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 10,000 VND.
What is the quality score of HSG?
Hoasen Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10,042 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8,493 VND, optimistic scenario 13,055 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoasen Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10,042 VND, about +0% upside versus a price of 10,000 VND (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 8,493 VND, optimistic scenario 13,055 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Hoasen Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.2T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hoasen Group pay a dividend?
Hoasen Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.37% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hoasen Group (HSG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hoasen Group would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HSG use?
Our models discount Hoasen Group at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hoasen Group that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hoasen Group (HSG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hoasen Group grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hoasen Group (HSG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hoasen Group (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.16 %: that much free cash flow Hoasen Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoasen Group it is 10,042 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 10,000 VND. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hoasen Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HSG trades below its calculated fair value: price 10,000 VND, fair value 10,042 VND, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (10,000 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10,042 VND). For Hoasen Group the two are 42.36 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoasen Group worth?
The market values Hoasen Group at about 9.2T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 10,000 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 10,042 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSG?
Our models span a range for Hoasen Group: cautious scenario 8,493 VND, base 10,042 VND, optimistic 13,055 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 10,000 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HSG?
Hoasen Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10,042 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoasen Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSG from its 52-week high?
Hoasen Group trades at 10,000 VND, about 33% below its 52-week high of 14,923 VND and at the low of 10,000 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10,042 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoasen Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoasen Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 10,000 VND, calculated fair value 10,042 VND (+0%), Quality Score 41/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSG calculated?
We run Hoasen Group through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10,042 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hoasen Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 10,000 VND. Our model-based fair value is 10,042 VND, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoasen Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Hoasen Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The market capitalisation of Hoasen Group is 9.2T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoasen Group is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Earnings per share at Hoasen Group are 634.52 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The dividend yield of Hoasen Group is 3.4% (payout 53.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The net margin of Hoasen Group is 2.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoasen Group is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoasen Group is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoasen Group (HSG)?
The operating margin of Hoasen Group is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Revenue at Hoasen Group is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoasen Group (HSG)?
Earnings per share at Hoasen Group are growing −42.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hoasen Group (HSG) carry?
The net debt of Hoasen Group is 4.0T VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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