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Hoa Sen Group (HSG) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · VN · Market cap 9.2T VND

HS Hoa Sen Group HSG · VN
Price10,900 VND
Fair Value13,157 VND
Upside+20.7%
Quality41/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: High Range 9,867 VND – 16,446 VND Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −4.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 21% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from 9,867 VND (bear) to 16,446 VND (bull), base 13,157 VND. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 41/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

29,370 VND 5,196 VND Fair Value 13,157 VND Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 5,196 VND – 29,370 VND · fair‑value band 9,867 VND – 16,446 VND · the 10,900 VND price screens below the 13,157 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Hoa Sen Group (HSG) currently trades at 10,900 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13,157 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hoa Sen Group generated revenue of 35.2T VND at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 4.0T VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 9,867 VND (bear case) to 16,446 VND (bull case); at 10,900 VND, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 21%, HSG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 14,925 VND 20,257 VND 30,189 VND 80
Residual Income 11,417 VND 11,989 VND 12,728 VND 76
Rev-Margin DCF 10,466 VND 14,561 VND 19,775 VND 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 14,274 VND 19,684 VND 30,653 VND 38
5Y Revenue Exit 10,466 VND 14,256 VND 19,899 VND 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 13,909 VND 20,138 VND 28,590 VND 41
5Y P/E Exit 11,887 VND 16,684 VND 22,577 VND 38
10Y Revenue Exit 11,540 VND 14,890 VND 18,539 VND 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 13,928 VND 18,764 VND 24,083 VND 37
10Y P/E Exit 12,665 VND 16,489 VND 20,247 VND 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 6,191 VND 9,152 VND 10,831 VND 54
EPV 8,156 VND 9,502 VND 10,698 VND 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3,695 VND 4,254 VND 4,954 VND 70
DDM Multi-Stage 3,695 VND 4,900 VND 6,520 VND 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 11,609 VND 15,478 VND 19,348 VND 63
P/S Multiple 11,609 VND 15,478 VND 19,348 VND 58
P/B Multiple 11,609 VND 15,478 VND 19,348 VND 55
EV/EBIT 10,226 VND 13,458 VND 16,690 VND 53
EV/EBITDA 15,845 VND 20,951 VND 26,056 VND 54
EV/Revenue 8,933 VND 12,534 VND 16,136 VND 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7,013 VND 9,397 VND 14,026 VND 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 14,925 VND 20,257 VND 30,189 VND 80
Rev-Margin DCF 10,466 VND 14,561 VND 19,775 VND 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 11,417 VND 11,989 VND 12,728 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 8,156 VND 9,502 VND 10,698 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 8,270 VND 11,815 VND 15,359 VND 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (16,684 VND) versus Dividend Discount (4,254 VND). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 35.2T VND
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.1%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 4.8%
Free cash flow 1.1T VND FY2025
P/E ratio 18.5
More key figures
Operating margin 2.6%
EPS (TTM) 636.85 VND
EPS growth (YoY) -42.2%
Net debt 4.0T VND FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hoa Sen Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and trading steel sheet in Vietnam and internationally.

Full company description

Hoa Sen Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacturing and trading steel sheet in Vietnam and internationally. The company is involved in the production of galvanized, pre-painted galvanized, aluminum-zinc alloy coated, and other alloy coated steel sheets, as well as steel and galvanized purlins; black, galvanized, and other alloy coated steel pipes; and galvanized meshes, wires, and other wires. It engages in the production and trading of plastic building materials; trading of building materials, production materials, and consumer goods; leasing warehouses, and freight transport; construction of industrial and civil facilities; production of cold rolled coil; and leasing of machinery, equipment, and other tangible goods. The company was incorporated in 2001 is headquartered in Di An, Vietnam.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hoa Sen Group reported revenue of 36.5T VND in FY2025 versus 48.7T VND in FY2021, a compound −6.9%/yr. Reported net income was 735B VND in FY2025, compounding −35.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
36.5T VND
Latest YoY
−7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Avg. growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Revenue −6.9%/yr
FY21 48.7T VND
FY22 49.7T VND
FY23 31.7T VND
FY24 39.3T VND
FY25 36.5T VND
Net income −35.8%/yr
FY21 4.3T VND
FY22 251B VND
FY23 30.0B VND
FY24 515B VND
FY25 735B VND

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoa Sen Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSG

Peer Group

Steel · 378 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +21% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 6% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.26× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.4× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 61 · sector 19
FUTURE 31 · sector 4
PAST 19 · sector 15
HEALTH 100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tata Steel Limited TTST $0.2010 $0.2000 -0%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,227 ₹1,140 -7%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.89 ¥8.07 +37%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 38.55 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 313,500 KRW 155,270 KRW -50%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,940 ARS +17%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,028 ₹545.12 -47%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,844 ₹1,098 -40%
SSAB AB SSABA kr 96.04 kr 72.43 -25%
Gerdau S.A GGBN 83.50 MXN 42.64 MXN -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hoa Sen Group (HSG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13,157 VND versus a price of 10,900 VND, about +21% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HSG?
Our model-based fair value for Hoa Sen Group is 13,157 VND (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 10,900 VND.
What is the quality score of HSG?
Hoa Sen Group has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hoa Sen Group (HSG)?
Hoa Sen Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.2T VND (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HSG?
The net profit margin of Hoa Sen Group is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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