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Høland og Setskog Sparebank (HSPG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · NO · Market cap 103M NOK

HO Høland og Setskog Sparebank HSPG · OL
Pricekr 152.00
Fair Valuekr 300.00
Upside+97.4%
Quality48/100
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Mixed Growth
Highly profitable · 25.8% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
3.18% dividend yield
Trails peers (3/11)
Moderate moat 55/100
Evidence: High Range kr 225.00 – kr 375.00 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 29 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from kr 314.00 to kr 300.00 (−4.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 97% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 225.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

kr 169.53 kr 94.81 Fair Value kr 300.00 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 94.81 – kr 169.53 · fair‑value band kr 225.00 – kr 375.00 · the kr 152.00 price screens below the kr 300.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Høland og Setskog Sparebank (HSPG) currently trades at kr 152.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 300.00, implying the stock looks roughly 97.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Høland og Setskog Sparebank generated revenue of 162M NOK at a net margin of 25.8%. Revenue declined 2.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at 2.4B NOK. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 225.00 (bear case) to kr 375.00 (bull case); at kr 152.00, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 97%, HSPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income kr 1,117 kr 1,053 kr 819.62 76
Gordon GGM kr 62.69 kr 105.00 kr 136.28 70
P/E Multiple kr 672.32 kr 896.43 kr 1,121 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM kr 62.69 kr 105.00 kr 136.28 70
DDM Multi-Stage kr 62.69 kr 99.59 kr 112.96 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 672.32 kr 896.43 kr 1,121 63
P/B Multiple kr 879.19 kr 1,172 kr 1,465 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 837.09 kr 1,122 kr 1,674 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 1,117 kr 1,053 kr 819.62 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (kr 1,122) versus Dividend Discount (kr 99.59). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 162M NOK
Revenue growth (YoY) -2.3%
Net margin 25.8%
Return on equity 3.9%
Free cash flow 81.5M NOK FY2025
P/E ratio 28.2
More key figures
Operating margin 21.6%
EPS (TTM) kr 5.32
Dividend yield 3.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -82.0%
Net debt 2.4B NOK FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 39
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Høland og Setskog Sparebank provides banking services for the retail and corporate markets in Norway. The company offers current, deposit, and savings accounts; business, investment, agricultural, and client accounts; bank and credit cards; eInvoice; mobile payments; and mobile and online banking.

Full company description

Høland og Setskog Sparebank provides banking services for the retail and corporate markets in Norway. The company offers current, deposit, and savings accounts; business, investment, agricultural, and client accounts; bank and credit cards; eInvoice; mobile payments; and mobile and online banking. It also provides insurance products for cars, electric scooters, boats, motorcycles, mopeds, jet skis, caravans, motorhomes, ATVs, tractors, snowmobiles, trailers, and veteran cars; houses, household items, travel, cottages, valuable items, and drones; health, child, disability, critical illness, life, and accident; dogs, cats, and horses; and company, employees, and agriculture applications. In addition, the company offers bank, BSU, mutual fund, micro, and retirement savings; pension products; car loans, mortgages, senior loans for apartments, green mortgages, energy-saving loans, framework loans, consumer loans, cottage loans, fixed-rate loans, and refinancing of mortgages, as well as loans for boats, motorcycles, caravans, motorhomes, ATVs, and snowmobiles; refinancing of consumer debt; bank guarantees, business and construction loans, factoring and invoice management, overdraft, and leasing; and consulting and accounting services. The company was formerly known as Holand Sparebank and changed its name to Høland og Setskog Sparebank in July 2010. Høland og Setskog Sparebank was incorporated in 1849 and is headquartered in Bjørkelangen, Norway.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Høland og Setskog Sparebank reported revenue of kr 196M in FY2025 versus kr 170M in FY2021, a compound +3.6%/yr. Reported net income was kr 47.4M in FY2025, compounding −2.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
196M NOK
Latest YoY
+0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Revenue +3.6%/yr
FY21 kr 170M
FY22 kr 181M
FY23 kr 195M
FY24 kr 195M
FY25 kr 196M
Net income −2.7%/yr
FY21 kr 53.0M
FY22 kr 46.8M
FY23 kr 50.8M
FY24 kr 55.0M
FY25 kr 47.4M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2008-2019) +11.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.2 pp

of which total revenue +11.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −6.6 pp

EBIT margin −17.4 pp
Tax rate +0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +22.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Høland og Setskog Sparebank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSPG

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +97% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 22% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 2.65× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 39
FUTURE 0 · sector 44
PAST 16 · sector 41
HEALTH 0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 64 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Høland og Setskog Sparebank (HSPG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 300.00 versus a price of kr 152.00, about +97% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HSPG?
Our model-based fair value for Høland og Setskog Sparebank is kr 300.00 (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is kr 152.00.
What is the quality score of HSPG?
Høland og Setskog Sparebank has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Høland og Setskog Sparebank (HSPG)?
Høland og Setskog Sparebank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 162M NOK (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HSPG?
The net profit margin of Høland og Setskog Sparebank is about 25.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Høland og Setskog Sparebank pay a dividend?
Høland og Setskog Sparebank currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 12, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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