Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HTCMY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.0B
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co
HTCMY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $102.79 to $95.00 (−7.6%) since Jun 24, 2026.
A solid business, screening 44% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($70.89). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.38 – $85.44 · fair‑value band $70.89 – $118.74 · the $65.82 price screens below the $95.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co (HTCMY) currently trades at $65.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $95.00, implying the stock looks roughly 44.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hitachi Construction Machinery Co generated revenue of $1.4T at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue grew 12.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. Net debt stands at $429B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.89 (bear case) to $118.74 (bull case); at $65.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 44%, HTCMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($111.63) versus Earnings-Based ($25.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction machineries in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Russia, CIS, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and China. The company operates in two segments, Construction Machinery Business and Specialized Parts and Service Business.
Full company description
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction machineries in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Russia, CIS, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and China. The company operates in two segments, Construction Machinery Business and Specialized Parts and Service Business. It offers excavators and wheel loaders, hydraulic excavators, compaction equipment, and rigid dump trucks. The company also provides ICT construction solutions; ConSite that monitors machines' operational status and alarms by sending monthly operational reports, as well as notifies emergency alarms; Fleet Management System, which offers real-time monitoring of dump truck for optimizing vehicle operations; and Autonomous Haulage System for mining operations. In addition, it provides parts and services; used equipment under the PREMIUM USED brand; machinery rental services under the PREMIUM RENTAL and REC brand names; and parts remanufacturing services. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co reported revenue of $1.5T in FY2026 versus $1.0T in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $77.6B in FY2026, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2022.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Pronto and Hitachi Construction Machinery Enter Strategic Partnership to Advance Open Mine Automation Solutions
- A Look At Hitachi Construction Machinery (TSE:6305) Valuation After Mixed Full Year 2026 Earnings Results
- Australia Construction Equipment Industry Research Report 2025-2030 Featuring Market Leaders - Caterpillar, Komatsu, Volvo CE, Hitachi Const
- Netherlands Construction Equipment Industry Research Report 2026-2031 Featuring Market Front-Runners - Caterpillar, Komatsu, Hitachi Constru
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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