Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd $96.53, price $72.60, upside +33.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.38 – $85.44 · fair‑value band $72.40 – $120.66 · the $72.60 price screens below the $96.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction machineries in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Russia, CIS, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and China. The company operates in two segments, Construction Machinery Business and Specialized Parts and Service Business.
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Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells construction machineries in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Russia, CIS, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and China. The company operates in two segments, Construction Machinery Business and Specialized Parts and Service Business. It offers excavators and wheel loaders, hydraulic excavators, compaction equipment, and rigid dump trucks. The company also provides ICT construction solutions; ConSite that monitors machines' operational status and alarms by sending monthly operational reports, as well as notifies emergency alarms; Fleet Management System, which offers real-time monitoring of dump truck for optimizing vehicle operations; and Autonomous Haulage System for mining operations. In addition, it provides parts and services; used equipment under the PREMIUM USED brand; machinery rental services under the PREMIUM RENTAL and REC brand names; and parts remanufacturing services. The company was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR (HTCMY) currently trades at $72.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $96.53, implying the stock looks roughly 24.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $116.53 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $72.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $26.11, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $72.40 (bear) to $120.66 (bull), the price of $72.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.5T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥77.6B in FY2026, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B · P/E ratio 16.9 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) $4.29 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 33%, HTCMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $72.40Fair Value $96.53Bull $120.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 24%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 10%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (27 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+33% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HTCMY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $96.53 versus a price of $72.60, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTCMY?
Our model-based fair value for Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is $96.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.60.
What is the quality score of HTCMY?
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $96.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.40, optimistic scenario $120.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $96.53, about +33% upside versus a price of $72.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $72.40, optimistic scenario $120.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HTCMY use?
Our models discount Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR that is +0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies +0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR (+0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.68 %: that much free cash flow Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR it is $96.53 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $72.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HTCMY trades below its calculated fair value: price $72.60, fair value $96.53, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTCMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($72.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($96.53). For Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR the two are $23.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $72.60; our models calculate a fair value of $96.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTCMY?
Our models span a range for Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $72.40, base $96.53, optimistic $120.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $72.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTCMY?
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $96.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of HTCMY?
The PEG ratio of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTCMY from its 52-week high?
Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR trades at $72.60, about 15% below its 52-week high of $85.44 and 34% above the low of $54.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $96.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $72.60, calculated fair value $96.53 (+33%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTCMY calculated?
We run Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $96.53, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $72.60. Our model-based fair value is $96.53, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR grew +21.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate +4.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The market capitalisation of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR are $4.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The dividend yield of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 3.4% (payout 57.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The net margin of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 5.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
The operating margin of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Revenue at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is growing +12.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY)?
Earnings per share at Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR are growing −13.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd (HTCMY) carry?
The net debt of Hitachi Construction Machinery Co Ltd ADR is ¥429B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026