Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$6.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +5.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.49 to A$6.47) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.76 – A$7.36 · fair‑value band A$3.49 – A$6.47 · the A$5.05 price screens above the A$4.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) currently trades at A$5.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.24, implying the stock looks roughly 16.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Harvey Norman Holdings generated revenue of A$3.1B at a net margin of 18.1%. Revenue grew 11.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.8%. Net debt stands at A$2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.49 (bear case) to A$6.47 (bull case); at A$5.05, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -16%, HVN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$7.81) versus Economic Profit (A$1.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. The company franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings.
Full company description
Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. The company franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings. It operates complexes under the Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne brands. The company is also involved in the property investment and media placement activities; acts as a lessor of premises to Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne franchisees and other third parties, as well as retail properties; development and sale of properties; and provision of consumer finance and other commercial loans and advances. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Homebush West, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Harvey Norman Holdings reported revenue of A$4.1B in FY2025 versus A$4.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$518M in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.
HVN screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ASX Penny Stocks: Harvey Norman Holdings And 2 Other Promising Picks
- Despite recent sales, Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX:HVN) insiders still hold the largest share with a 40% interest
- Harvey Norman Holdings Full Year 2025 Earnings: Beats Expectations
- Investors in Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX:HVN) have seen notable returns of 70% over the past three years
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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