Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Intercontinental Exchange Inc stock $123, price $174, that is 29.4% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Intercontinental Exchange Inc
ICE · USOur calculation puts a fair price 29% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $85.36 – $185.45 · fair‑value band $57.64 – $219.11 · the $174.00 price screens above the $122.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Company profile
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East.
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It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology.
The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses.
The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology.
The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market.
The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock analysis
Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE) currently trades at $174.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.85, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $122.85 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the $174.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.42, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $57.64 (bear) to $219.11 (bull), the price of $174.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc reported revenue of $12.6B in FY2025 versus $9.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $3.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $98.5B Large · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 9.03 · EPS (TTM) $7.34 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 38.1% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −29%, ICE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
All 11 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 11 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.2M and none bought.
- SaleJames W NamkungChief Accounting Officer2,430 shares at $165.00$400,950Oct 29, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleDouglas FoleySVP, HR & Administration5× since Dec 12, 2025: 13,700 shares, avg. $155.03$2.1MSep 14, 2026
- SaleBenjamin JacksonPresident4× since Feb 10, 2026: 33,453 shares, avg. $161.81$5.4MSep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleChristopher Scott EdmondsPresident, Fixed Income & Data2× since Feb 19, 2026: 16,303 shares, avg. $155.90$2.5MSep 1, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleAndrew J SurdykowskiGeneral Counsel5× since Nov 11, 2025: 17,569 shares, avg. $156.96$2.8MAug 26, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleMartha A TirinnanziDirector2× since Aug 13, 2026: 1,481 shares, avg. $160.57$237,809Aug 26, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleWarren GardinerChief Financial Officer4× since Nov 20, 2025: 9,043 shares, avg. $155.30$1.4MAug 19, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleMayur KapaniChief Technology Officer4× since Dec 8, 2025: 29,100 shares, avg. $154.82$4.5MAug 12, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleLynn C MartinPresident, NYSE Group2× since Feb 20, 2026: 29,338 shares, avg. $146.98$4.3MJul 16, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleWilliam Jefferson HagueDirector2× since Jun 9, 2026: 1,424 shares, avg. $139.40$198,504Jun 12, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
ICE screens overvalued: fair value 29% below the price. Compare with S&P Global Inc →
Compare Intercontinental Exchange Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 49 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Financials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- PEG ratio by industry
- Revenue growth by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Global, Inc COIN | $136.82 | $184.32 | +35% | vs ICE |
| Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited 0388 | HK$394.60 | HK$306.61 | −22% | vs ICE |
| Cboe Global Markets, Inc CBOE | $353.07 | $247.78 | −30% | vs ICE |
| Deutsche Börse AG DB1 | €327.50 | €229.53 | −30% | vs ICE |
| CME Group CME | $307.24 | $200.80 | −35% | vs ICE |
| Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co 300033 | ¥209.10 | ¥113.78 | −46% | vs ICE |
| S&P Global Inc SPGI | $472.41 | $207.66 | −56% | vs ICE |
| MSCI Inc MSCI | $655.91 | $261.33 | −60% | vs ICE |
| Nasdaq, Inc NDAQ | $106.83 | $41.61 | −61% | vs ICE |
| Moody's Corporation MCO | $515.34 | $198.89 | −61% | vs ICE |
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