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Data-driven stock valuation

Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · US · Market cap $9.5B · ISIN US45166E1047

At a glance

IK Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR logo Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR IDKOY · US
Price$18.82
Fair Value$17.28
Upside−8.2%
Quality59/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $17.28.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is $17.28 per share against a price of $18.82, so the fair value sits 8% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.89% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 22 out of 100
!Weak on past: 8 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $12.96 to $21.61

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $26.72 to $17.28 (−35.3%) since Aug 20, 2026. Share price +17.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$20.74 $3.28 Fair Value $17.28 Jul 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.28 – $20.74 · fair‑value band $12.96 – $21.61 · the $18.82 price screens above the $17.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY) currently trades at $18.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.28, implying the stock looks roughly 8.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $32.02 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.82 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.44, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥8.1T at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue declined 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at ¥1.2T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $12.96 (bear) to $21.61 (bull), the price of $18.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −8%, IDKOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $24.44 $39.27 $60.96 79
Growth DCF $24.84 $37.90 $55.82 78
Owner Earnings $10.61 $18.23 $29.37 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $24.44 $39.27 $60.96 79
Owner Earnings $10.61 $18.23 $29.37 75
5Y Revenue Exit $19.32 $31.84 $47.60 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $15.28 $24.30 $34.51 75
5Y P/E Exit $17.66 $28.74 $40.17 70
10Y Revenue Exit $20.34 $32.04 $47.40 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $18.45 $26.93 $37.64 68
10Y P/E Exit $19.93 $29.94 $41.87 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.98 $40.20 $53.43 65
Lynch FV $8.71 $12.44 $16.18 61
PEG = 1.0 $8.71 $12.44 $16.18 57
EPV $11.67 $14.15 $16.28 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $20.04 $26.72 $33.40 63
P/S Multiple $24.33 $32.45 $40.56 58
P/B Multiple $24.33 $32.45 $40.56 55
EV/EBIT $13.68 $19.57 $25.46 65
EV/EBITDA $11.86 $17.14 $22.42 67
EV/Revenue $17.45 $26.64 $35.83 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.09 $13.51 $20.17 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $24.84 $37.90 $55.82 78
Rev-Margin DCF $19.32 $32.02 $46.66 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.21 $18.84 $25.47 71
ROIC Compounder $11.67 $14.15 $16.28 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $17.41 $24.88 $32.34 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($32.02) versus Earnings-Based ($12.44). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 10.8
P/S ratio 0.23 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.75 price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8
Dividend yield 2.9% payout 31.1%
Net margin 2.1% FY2026
Return on equity 2.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 8.1% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥8.1T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −9.8% 3y avg −3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −36.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥252B FY2026
Net debt ¥1.2T FY2026 · ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. engages in the fuel oil, basic chemicals, functional materials, power and renewable energy, and resources businesses in Japan, Singapore, Asia, Oceania, North America, and internationally.

Full company description

Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. engages in the fuel oil, basic chemicals, functional materials, power and renewable energy, and resources businesses in Japan, Singapore, Asia, Oceania, North America, and internationally. The Fuel Oil segment engages in the production, sale, import, export, and trading in petroleum refined products comprising sustainable aviation fuel, synthetic fuel, biofuels, and carbon offset fuel; and operation of service stations that provide refueling, car wash, vehicle inspection, and maintenance services. Its Basic Chemicals segment produces and sells olefin and aromatic products, which include ethylene, propylene, linealene/alpha olefin, paraxylene, cyclohexane, and styrene monomer. The Functional Materials segment offers lubricants, functional chemicals, electronic materials, and bitumen/functional paving materials, as well as agri-bio products, pesticides and functional feed products. Its Renewable Energy segment engages in power generation from thermal, solar, and wind power; sale of electricity; and solar business. The Resources segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and coal; and geothermal power generation. It is also involved in insurance businesses. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥8.6T in FY2026 versus ¥6.7T in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥182B in FY2026, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$8.6T
Latest YoY
−6.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+7.1%
Dividend yield2.9%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 7.1% vs 10Y 8.9%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3.1% (2021) → 2.6% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop375% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
Revenue +6.5%/yr
FY22 ¥6.7T
FY23 ¥9.5T
FY24 ¥8.7T
FY25 ¥9.2T
FY26 ¥8.6T
Net income −10.1%/yr
FY22 ¥279B
FY23 ¥254B
FY24 ¥229B
FY25 ¥104B
FY26 ¥182B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IDKOY

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 112 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside −8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −10% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-2.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+13.5 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.4 %
FCF yield on price14.23 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE22 · sector 16
FUTURE0 · sector 15
PAST8 · sector 34
HEALTH85 · sector 85
DIVIDEND58 · sector 55

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE ₹1,314 ₹835.66 −36%
Valero Energy Corporation VLO $352.36 $127.32 −64%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC $368.83 $133.18 −64%
Phillips 66 PSX $246.58 $99.41 −60%
Neste Oyj NESTE €32.68 €3.83 −88%
Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 75.80 TWD 15.32 TWD −80%
HF Sinclair Corporation DINO $105.41 $44.96 −57%
Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL ₹315.70 ₹846.81 +168%
SK Innovation Co 096770 131,500 KRW 53,541 KRW −59%
Sunoco LP, SUN $75.55 $53.36 −29%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.28 versus a price of $18.82, about −8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of IDKOY?
Our model-based fair value for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is $17.28 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.82.
What is the quality score of IDKOY?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.28 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.96, optimistic scenario $21.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.28, about −8% upside versus a price of $18.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.96, optimistic scenario $21.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY)?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥8.1T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of IDKOY?
The net profit margin of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (IDKOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -2.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IDKOY use?
Our models discount Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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