Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd stock $17.46, price $19.74, upside -11.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.28 – $21.59 · fair‑value band $13.10 – $21.83 · the $19.74 price screens above the $17.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. engages in the fuel oil, basic chemicals, functional materials, power and renewable energy, and resources businesses in Japan, Singapore, Asia, Oceania, North America, and internationally.
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The Fuel Oil segment engages in the production, sale, import, export, and trading in petroleum refined products comprising sustainable aviation fuel, synthetic fuel, biofuels, and carbon offset fuel; and operation of service stations that provide refueling, car wash, vehicle inspection, and maintenance services.
Its Basic Chemicals segment produces and sells olefin and aromatic products, which include ethylene, propylene, linealene/alpha olefin, paraxylene, cyclohexane, and styrene monomer.
The Functional Materials segment offers lubricants, functional chemicals, electronic materials, and bitumen/functional paving materials, as well as agri-bio products, pesticides and functional feed products.
Its Renewable Energy segment engages in power generation from thermal, solar, and wind power; sale of electricity; and solar business. The Resources segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and coal; and geothermal power generation.
It is also involved in insurance businesses. Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) currently trades at $19.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.46, 11.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $35.36 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the $19.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.56, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.10 (bear) to $21.83 (bull), the price of $19.74 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥8.6T in FY2026 versus ¥6.7T in FY2022, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥182B in FY2026, compounding −10.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $12.1B Large · P/E ratio 4.8 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) $4.09 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −68% fair-value upside, at −12%, IDKOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$13.10Fair Value $17.46Bull$21.83
Price $19.74 · Upside -11.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.1% vs 8.9%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price and −4.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The main strength is the in-house loop pairing plastic waste with conventional refining at existing units, while the main weak point remains thin margins and few durable advantages in a commoditized business.
Main risk: Commodity exposure means surging feedstock costs can quickly compress downstream spreads and hit margins across the refining operations.
Idemitsu turns chemically recycled oil from used plastics into naphtha at its Chiba refinery by feeding it through existing units. This closes an in-house loop that pairs plastic waste with conventional refining. Does this extend the life of core operations or pull resources toward a circular model that competes with fossil volumes?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−11.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IDKOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.46 versus a price of $19.74, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IDKOY?
Our model-based fair value for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is $17.46 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.74.
What is the quality score of IDKOY?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.46 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.10, optimistic scenario $21.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.46, about −12% upside versus a price of $19.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.10, optimistic scenario $21.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥8.5T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IDKOY use?
Our models discount Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR that is -3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies -3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (-3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.29 %: that much free cash flow Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR it is $17.46 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $19.74. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, IDKOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.74, fair value $17.46, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IDKOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.46). For Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR the two are $2.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR at about $12.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $19.74; our models calculate a fair value of $17.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IDKOY?
Our models span a range for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $13.10, base $17.46, optimistic $21.83 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $19.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IDKOY?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 22.5%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IDKOY from its 52-week high?
Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR trades at $19.74, about 9% below its 52-week high of $21.59 and 46% above the low of $13.48 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Marathon Petroleum Corporation, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $19.74, calculated fair value $17.46 (−12%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IDKOY calculated?
We run Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $19.74. Our model-based fair value is $17.46, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The market capitalisation of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is $12.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Earnings per share at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR are $4.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The dividend yield of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 2.3% (payout 11.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The net margin of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 2.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
The operating margin of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Revenue at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is growing +23.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY)?
Earnings per share at Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR are growing +41.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd (IDKOY) carry?
The net debt of Idemitsu Kosan Co Ltd ADR is ¥1.2T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026