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Iren SpA (IRE) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €3.5B

IS Iren SpA IRE · MI
Price€2.55
Fair Value€2.72
Upside+6.6%
Quality49/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.13% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range €2.30 – €4.63 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −0.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (€2.30 to €4.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€2.84 €1.08 Fair Value €2.72 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.08 – €2.84 · fair‑value band €2.30 – €4.63 · the €2.55 price screens below the €2.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Iren SpA (IRE) currently trades at €2.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.72, implying the stock looks roughly 6.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Iren SpA generated revenue of €6.2B at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue declined 13.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.2%. Net debt stands at €271M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.30 (bear case) to €4.63 (bull case); at €2.55, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 7%, IRE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.7100 80
Residual Income €2.27 €2.45 €2.87 76
Rev-Margin DCF €0.3300 €2.55 €5.19 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.7900 38
5Y Revenue Exit €0.3300 €2.62 €5.64 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €2.21 €6.23 €11.10 41
5Y P/E Exit €1.53 €3.45 38
10Y Revenue Exit €1.56 €4.35 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €0.9300 €4.06 €8.54 37
10Y P/E Exit €0.8200 €2.67 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1.59 €5.69 €7.66 54
Lynch FV €1.34 €1.91 €2.49 50
PEG = 1.0 €1.34 €1.91 €2.49 46
EPV €0.6200 €1.12 €1.55 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1.22 €2.43 €3.68 70
DDM Multi-Stage €1.22 €2.10 €2.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €3.16 €4.22 €5.27 63
P/S Multiple €2.99 €3.98 €4.98 58
P/B Multiple €2.99 €3.98 €4.98 55
EV/EBIT €2.23 €3.82 €5.40 53
EV/EBITDA €4.82 €7.28 €9.73 54
EV/Revenue €1.32 €2.97 €4.62 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.35 €1.81 €2.70 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.7100 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.3300 €2.55 €5.19 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €2.27 €2.45 €2.87 76
ROIC Compounder €0.6200 €1.12 €1.55 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €2.34 €3.34 €4.34 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€3.98) versus Economic Profit (€1.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €6.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) -13.3%
Net margin 4.7%
Return on equity 8.2%
Free cash flow €152M FY2025
P/E ratio 12.0
More key figures
Operating margin 11.7%
EPS (TTM) €0.2300
Dividend yield 5.1%
EPS growth (YoY) -5.1%
Net debt €271M FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Iren SpA, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. It operates through Networks, Waste Management, Energy, Market, and Other Services segments. The company produces and distributes electricity primarily from hydroelectric, thermoelectric, cogeneration, and other renewables, as well as distributes natural gas.

Full company description

Iren SpA, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-utility company in Italy. It operates through Networks, Waste Management, Energy, Market, and Other Services segments. The company produces and distributes electricity primarily from hydroelectric, thermoelectric, cogeneration, and other renewables, as well as distributes natural gas. It distributes electrical energy through 7,872 kilometers of medium and low voltage networks to approximately 729,000 connected users; and natural gas through its network of approximately 8,160 kilometers of high, medium, and low-pressure pipes to approximately 738,000 customers. The company also operates integrated water cycle, which includes 20,358 kilometers of pipeline networks that serve 2.9 million residents; 11,279 kilometers of sewerage networks; and operates treatment plants. In addition, it is involved in the provision of services related to street lighting systems, traffic light systems, heating systems, and electrical and special systems; collection and disposal of waste; snow clearing services; and analysis laboratories, telecommunications, and other services. It operates 35 hydroelectric plants, 7 thermoelectric cogeneration systems, and 1 thermoelectric plant, as well as 105 photovoltaic production plants with an installed capacity of 142 MW. Iren SpA is based in Reggio Emilia, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Iren SpA reported revenue of €6.4B in FY2025 versus €4.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €301M in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€6.4B
Latest YoY
+8.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−6.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.8%
Avg. growth/yr (22Y)
+10.4%
Revenue +7.0%/yr
FY21 €4.9B
FY22 €7.8B
FY23 €6.3B
FY24 €5.9B
FY25 €6.4B
Net income −0.2%/yr
FY21 €303M
FY22 €226M
FY23 €255M
FY24 €268M
FY25 €301M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Iren SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IRE

Peer Group

Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside +7% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Below median
Revenue growth -13% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.00× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 26.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.49× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 42 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 33 · sector 33
HEALTH 50 · sector 49
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 80

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Iberdrola, S.A IBE €21.25 €9.34 -56%
Enel SpA ENEL €10.28 €5.83 -43%
Engie SA 1ENGI €26.59 €17.39 -35%
Sempra SRE $93.15 $47.77 -49%
E.ON SE EOAN €19.34 €11.71 -39%
RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE €56.52 €29.64 -48%
ACWA Power Company 2082 198.20 SAR 25.38 SAR -87%
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN C$55.05 C$17.66 -68%
EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK €69.00 €21.11 -69%
EDP, S.A EDP €4.41 €3.81 -14%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Iren SpA (IRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.72 versus a price of €2.55, about +7% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of IRE?
Our model-based fair value for Iren SpA is €2.72 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €2.55.
What is the quality score of IRE?
Iren SpA has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Iren SpA (IRE)?
Iren SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of IRE?
The net profit margin of Iren SpA is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Iren SpA pay a dividend?
Iren SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.13% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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