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ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCY) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $82.3B

IC ITOCHU Corporation logo ITOCHU Corporation ITOCY · US
Price$12.78
Fair Value$14.16
Upside+10.8%
Quality59/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.24% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/15)
Moderate moat 49/100
Evidence: High Range $10.62 – $17.70 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 12 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 26, 2026, revised from $14.39 to $14.16 (−1.6%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +9.8% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 11% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from $10.62 (bear) to $17.70 (bull), base $14.16. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$14.42 $3.75 Fair Value $14.16 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.75 – $14.42 · fair‑value band $10.62 – $17.70 · the $12.78 price screens below the $14.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCY) currently trades at $12.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.16, implying the stock looks roughly 10.8% undervalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, ITOCHU Corporation generated revenue of $14.8T at a net margin of 6.1%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.9%. Net debt stands at $4.2T. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $10.62 (bear case) to $17.70 (bull case); at $12.78, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 11%, ITOCY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $10.74 $23.31 $43.91 80
Residual Income $5.69 $7.41 $20.48 76
Rev-Margin DCF $7.31 $14.05 $28.20 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $11.54 $19.33 $44.12 38
Owner Earnings $13.93 $34.29 $77.03 31
5Y Revenue Exit $6.47 $12.02 $23.58 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $9.59 $18.33 $35.47 41
5Y P/E Exit $11.12 $27.30 $49.33 38
10Y Revenue Exit $7.82 $18.07 $24.11 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $10.37 $24.80 $49.70 37
10Y P/E Exit $11.49 $28.09 $55.37 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.66 $39.50 $55.43 54
Lynch FV $20.41 $29.15 $37.90 50
PEG = 1.0 $20.41 $29.15 $37.90 46
EPV $1.84 $2.49 $3.05 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.40 $4.99 $7.92 70
DDM Multi-Stage $2.40 $4.21 $5.24 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.49 $16.66 $20.82 63
P/S Multiple $10.62 $14.16 $17.70 58
P/B Multiple $10.62 $14.16 $17.70 55
EV/EBIT $6.73 $9.66 $12.58 53
EV/EBITDA $8.44 $11.93 $15.42 54
EV/Revenue $3.88 $6.41 $8.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.89 $3.87 $5.78 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $10.74 $23.31 $43.91 80
Rev-Margin DCF $7.31 $14.05 $28.20 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.69 $7.41 $20.48 76
ROIC Compounder $1.84 $2.49 $3.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $26.30 $37.57 $48.84 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($37.57) versus Economic Profit ($2.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $14.8T
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.1%
Net margin 6.1%
Return on equity 13.9%
Free cash flow $924B FY2026
P/E ratio 14.7
More key figures
Operating margin 4.6%
EPS (TTM) $0.8000
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -3.0%
Net debt $4.2T FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th.

Full company description

ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th. The company produces and sells raw materials, threads, and textiles; and garments, home furnishings, and industrial materials. It also engages in the plants, bridges, railways, and other infrastructure; power generation, transmission, transformation, and electricity sale; water, environment and waste-related; trading of ships, aircraft, automobiles, construction and industrial machinery, machine tools, environmental equipment, electronic devices, and related equipment; renewable and alternative energy; and waste recycling businesses. In addition, the company develops metal and mineral resource; processes steel products; trades iron ore, coal, pig iron and ferrous raw materials, non-ferrous and light metals, steel products, nuclear fuels, and greenhouse gas emissions; and waste treatment activities. Further, it trades in energy, chemical, and power including renewable energy; produces and distributes food; and develops new business fields and cultivates new partners. The company also engages in pulp and paper, natural rubber, building products and materials, tire and automotive aftermarket related, and logistics business; development, sales, lease, and operation of real estate; IT solutions, internet-related services, business process outsourcing, medical and healthcare, satellite, content, and distribution of mobile phone devices and after-sales services; and financial and insurance services. The company was founded in 1858 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

ITOCHU Corporation reported revenue of ¥15.7T in FY2026 versus ¥12.3T in FY2022, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥955B in FY2026, compounding +3.9%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$15.7T
Latest YoY
+6.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (30Y)
+0.5%
Revenue +6.3%/yr
FY22 ¥12.3T
FY23 ¥13.9T
FY24 ¥14.0T
FY25 ¥14.7T
FY26 ¥15.7T
Net income +3.9%/yr
FY22 ¥820B
FY23 ¥801B
FY24 ¥802B
FY25 ¥880B
FY26 ¥955B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ITOCHU Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITOCY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 371 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.44× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.97× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 17.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.27× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 48 · sector 19
FUTURE 21 · sector 16
PAST 56 · sector 20
HEALTH 78 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 45 · sector 40

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.16 versus a price of $12.78, about +11% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITOCY?
Our model-based fair value for ITOCHU Corporation is $14.16 (as of Jul 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $12.78.
What is the quality score of ITOCY?
ITOCHU Corporation has a Quality Score of 59/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCY)?
ITOCHU Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $14.8T (latest available figure, as of Jul 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ITOCY?
The net profit margin of ITOCHU Corporation is about 6.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ITOCHU Corporation pay a dividend?
ITOCHU Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 26, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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