Itochu Corp (ITOCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Itochu Corp $29.03, price $14.80, upside +96.2%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.77 – $15.34 · fair‑value band $12.35 – $57.60 · the $14.80 price screens below the $29.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th.
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ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th. The company produces and sells raw materials, threads, and textiles; and garments, home furnishings, and industrial materials. It also engages in the plants, bridges, railways, and other infrastructure; power generation, transmission, transformation, and electricity sale; water, environment and waste-related; trading of ships, aircraft, automobiles, construction and industrial machinery, machine tools, environmental equipment, electronic devices, and related equipment; renewable and alternative energy; and waste recycling businesses. In addition, the company develops metal and mineral resource; processes steel products; trades iron ore, coal, pig iron and ferrous raw materials, non-ferrous and light metals, steel products, nuclear fuels, and greenhouse gas emissions; and waste treatment activities. Further, it trades in energy, chemical, and power including renewable energy; produces and distributes food; and develops new business fields and cultivates new partners. The company also engages in pulp and paper, natural rubber, building products and materials, tire and automotive aftermarket related, and logistics business; development, sales, lease, and operation of real estate; IT solutions, internet-related services, business process outsourcing, medical and healthcare, satellite, content, and distribution of mobile phone devices and after-sales services; and financial and insurance services. The company was founded in 1858 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Itochu Corp ADR (ITOCY) currently trades at $14.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.03, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $12.35 (bear) to $57.60 (bull), the price of $14.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Itochu Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥15.7T in FY2026 versus ¥12.3T in FY2022, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥955B in FY2026, compounding +3.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $104B · P/E ratio 18.3 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at 96%, ITOCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.35Fair Value $29.03Bull $57.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+27.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32% vs 22%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
2026 sits 145% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 382 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+96% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.03 versus a price of $14.80, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITOCY?
Our model-based fair value for Itochu Corp ADR is $29.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.80.
What is the quality score of ITOCY?
Itochu Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $57.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Itochu Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.03, about +96% upside versus a price of $14.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.35, optimistic scenario $57.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Itochu Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥14.8T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Itochu Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Itochu Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Itochu Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITOCY use?
Our models discount Itochu Corp ADR at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Itochu Corp ADR that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Itochu Corp (ITOCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Itochu Corp ADR grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Itochu Corp (ITOCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Itochu Corp ADR (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.16 %: that much free cash flow Itochu Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Itochu Corp ADR it is $29.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $14.80. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Itochu Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ITOCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.80, fair value $29.03, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITOCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.03). For Itochu Corp ADR the two are $14.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Itochu Corp ADR worth?
The market values Itochu Corp ADR at about $104B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.80; our models calculate a fair value of $29.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITOCY?
Our models span a range for Itochu Corp ADR: cautious scenario $12.35, base $29.03, optimistic $57.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $14.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITOCY?
Itochu Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 20.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ITOCY?
The PEG ratio of Itochu Corp ADR is 2.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Itochu Corp ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.1%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITOCY from its 52-week high?
Itochu Corp ADR trades at $14.80, about 0% below its 52-week high of $14.85 and 52% above the low of $9.73 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Itochu Corp ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Itochu Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $14.80, calculated fair value $29.03 (+96%), Quality Score 57/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITOCY calculated?
We run Itochu Corp ADR through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Itochu Corp ADR currently trades 96 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $14.80. Our model-based fair value is $29.03, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Itochu Corp ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($12.35 to $57.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Itochu Corp (ITOCY) come from?
Earnings per share at Itochu Corp ADR grew +16.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.0 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Itochu Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The market capitalisation of Itochu Corp ADR is $104B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Itochu Corp ADR is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Earnings per share at Itochu Corp ADR are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The dividend yield of Itochu Corp ADR is 2.2% (payout 40.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The net margin of Itochu Corp ADR is 6.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Itochu Corp ADR is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Itochu Corp ADR is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
The operating margin of Itochu Corp ADR is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Revenue at Itochu Corp ADR is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Itochu Corp (ITOCY)?
Earnings per share at Itochu Corp ADR are growing +4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Itochu Corp (ITOCY) carry?
The net debt of Itochu Corp ADR is ¥4.2T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026