Japan Airlines Co (JAPSY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.4B
Japan Airlines Co
JAPSY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $22.10 to $21.74 (−1.6%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +4.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 124% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.31). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.75 – $10.63 · fair‑value band $16.31 – $27.18 · the $9.70 price screens below the $21.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Japan Airlines Co (JAPSY) currently trades at $9.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.74, implying the stock looks roughly 124.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Japan Airlines Co generated revenue of $2.0T at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $135B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.31 (bear case) to $27.18 (bull case); at $9.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 124%, JAPSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($22.34) versus Asset-Based ($6.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services in Japan, Asia, Oceania, the Americas, and internationally.
Full company description
Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services in Japan, Asia, Oceania, the Americas, and internationally. The company engages in full-service and low-cost carrier, and cargo and mail; air transport-related businesses, such as airport passenger service, ground handling, maintenance, cargo, and passenger sales; and airport peripheral businesses, including mileage, lifestyle, and infrastructure. It also engages in the air mobility; contract; travel and regional revitalization; and other businesses. As of March 31, 2025, it operated a fleet of 232 aircraft. The company was formerly known as Japan Airlines International Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. in April 2011. Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Japan Airlines Co reported revenue of ¥2.1T in FY2026 versus ¥705B in FY2022, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥146B in FY2026.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- FLY TO HIGHER STATUS: NEW MARRIOTT BONVOY® AND JAPAN AIRLINES STRATEGIC TRAVEL LOYALTY PARTNERSHIP UNLOCKS UNPRECEDENTED ACCELERATED ACCESS
- Japan Airlines wants humanoid robots hauling your luggage — and the rest of the industry is watching
- Japan Airlines reports FY results
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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