Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd A$1.03, price A$0.96, upside +7.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range A$0.8000 – A$2.48 · the A$0.9600 price screens below the A$1.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Judo Capital Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of various banking products and services for small and medium businesses in Australia. The company provides personal, self-managed super fund (SMSF), and business term deposits.
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Judo Capital Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of various banking products and services for small and medium businesses in Australia. The company provides personal, self-managed super fund (SMSF), and business term deposits. It also offers line of credit, business, equipment, home, and agribusiness loans, as well as healthcare and asset financing. In addition, it provides residential mortgages, and bank guarantees. Further, it offers acquisition, wholesale, expansion, and working capital funding, as well as judo business, and warehouse lending. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) currently trades at A$0.9600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.03, implying the stock looks roughly 6.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of A$1.08 per share, and 4 of the 4 models we run sit above the A$0.9600 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$1.00, and 0 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$1.1B in FY2025 versus A$132M in FY2021, a compound +68.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$86.4M in FY2025, compounding +31.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.1B (≈ $800M) · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0900 · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin 45.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 7%, JDO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.03Fair Value A$1.03Bull A$1.03
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−97% → 12%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−20.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.3% a year for the price and −23.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Judo Capital Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)28% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)46% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth20% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.16× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Judo Capital Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JDO
Frequently asked questions
Is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.03 versus a price of A$0.9600, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JDO?
Our model-based fair value for Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is A$1.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.9600.
What is the quality score of JDO?
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Judo Capital Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.03, about +7% upside versus a price of A$0.9600 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$381M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Judo Capital Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +82.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JDO use?
Our models discount Judo Capital Holdings Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Judo Capital Holdings Ltd that is +22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd grew +82.4 % a year. The price currently implies +22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (+22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.05 %: that much free cash flow Judo Capital Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Judo Capital Holdings Ltd it is A$1.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.9600. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JDO trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.9600, fair value A$1.03, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.9600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.03). For Judo Capital Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Judo Capital Holdings Ltd at about A$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.9600; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.03 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of JDO?
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.3%, debt of 1.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JDO from its 52-week high?
Judo Capital Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.9600, about 50% below its 52-week high of A$1.92 and 9% above the low of A$0.8800 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Judo Capital Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Judo Capital Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.9600, calculated fair value A$1.03 (+7%), Quality Score 45/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JDO calculated?
We run Judo Capital Holdings Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Judo Capital Holdings Ltd currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.9600. Our model-based fair value is A$1.03, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Judo Capital Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.03). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The market capitalisation of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is A$1.1B (≈ $800M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Earnings per share at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd are A$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The net margin of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is 8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
The operating margin of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is 45.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Revenue at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is growing +19.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +89.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO)?
Earnings per share at Judo Capital Holdings Ltd are growing +42.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (JDO) carry?
The net debt of Judo Capital Holdings Ltd is A$2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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