Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.07, upside -64.1%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0220 – A$0.1200 · the A$0.0740 price screens above the A$0.0266 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Jade Gas Holdings Limited engages in the exploration and appraisal of coal bed methane projects in Mongolia. The company's flagship property is the Tavan Tolgoi coal bed methane project, which is located in the South Gobi region of Mongolia. Jade Gas Holdings Limited is based in Kent Town, Australia.
Stock analysis
Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH) currently trades at A$0.0740, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0266, implying the stock looks roughly 178.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 90/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Jade Gas Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$17.8K in FY2024 versus A$650 in FY2020, a compound +128.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$217M (≈ $152M) · Return on equity −22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.8% · Operating margin −1,449% · Revenue growth (YoY) +157% · Free cash flow −A$2.6M · Net debt A$10.1M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 236% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −64%, JGH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0266Fair Value A$0.0266Bull A$0.0266
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−72.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.8%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−95,334.7% (2019) → −30,528.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 288 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−64.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth157.1% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/B7.22× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 46
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 73
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Jade Gas Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JGH
Frequently asked questions
Is Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0266 versus a price of A$0.0740, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JGH?
Our model-based fair value for Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is A$0.0266 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0740.
What is the quality score of JGH?
Jade Gas Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0266 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Jade Gas Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0266, about −64% upside versus a price of A$0.0740 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Jade Gas Holdings Ltd it is A$0.0266 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.0740. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Jade Gas Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, JGH trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0740, fair value A$0.0266, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0740); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0266). For Jade Gas Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.0474 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Jade Gas Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Jade Gas Holdings Ltd at about A$217M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0740; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0266 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −22.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JGH from its 52-week high?
Jade Gas Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.0740, about 38% below its 52-week high of A$0.1200 and 236% above the low of A$0.0220 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0266 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Jade Gas Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Jade Gas Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.0740, calculated fair value A$0.0266 (−64%), Quality Score 12/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JGH calculated?
We run Jade Gas Holdings Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0266, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Jade Gas Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$0.0740. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0266, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Jade Gas Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0266). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
The market capitalisation of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is A$217M (≈ $152M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is −22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is −19.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
The operating margin of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is −1,449% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH)?
Revenue at Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is growing +157% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH) generate?
The free cash flow of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is −A$2.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Jade Gas Holdings Ltd (JGH) carry?
The net debt of Jade Gas Holdings Ltd is A$10.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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