Jade Gas Holdings (JGH) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$217M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$0.0100 to A$0.0270 (+170.0%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −32.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0270). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0220 – A$0.1200 · the A$0.0710 price screens above the A$0.0270 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Jade Gas Holdings (JGH) currently trades at A$0.0710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0270, implying the stock looks roughly 62.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$155K. Revenue grew 157.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -22.8%. Net debt stands at A$10.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 223% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -62%, JGH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Jade Gas Holdings Limited engages in the exploration and appraisal of coal bed methane projects in Mongolia. The company's flagship property is the Tavan Tolgoi coal bed methane project, which is located in the South Gobi region of Mongolia. Jade Gas Holdings Limited is based in Kent Town, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Jade Gas Holdings reported revenue of A$17.8K in FY2024 versus A$650 in FY2020, a compound +128.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.5M in FY2025.
JGH screens 62% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 314 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $125.92 | $90.15 | -28% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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