Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $487M
Johnson Outdoors Inc
JOUT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $69.48 to $19.52 (−71.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.03 – $126.82 · fair‑value band $18.09 – $20.96 · the $48.22 price screens above the $19.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT) currently trades at $48.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.52, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Johnson Outdoors Inc generated revenue of $652M at a net margin of -2.3%. Revenue grew 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $128M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.09 (bear case) to $20.96 (bull case); at $48.22, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -60%, JOUT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($66.60) versus Dividend Discount ($14.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Johnson Outdoors Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets seasonal and outdoor recreation products for fishing worldwide. It operates through Fishing; Camping & Watercraft Recreation; and Diving segments.
Full company description
Johnson Outdoors Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets seasonal and outdoor recreation products for fishing worldwide. It operates through Fishing; Camping & Watercraft Recreation; and Diving segments. The Fishing segment offers electric motors for quiet trolling or primary propulsion, marine battery chargers, and shallow water anchors; sonar and GPS equipment for fish finding, navigation and marine cartography; and downriggers for controlled-depth fishing. This segment sells its products under the Minn Kota, Humminbird, and Cannon brands through outdoor specialty retailers, retail store chains, internet dealers, original equipment manufacturers, and distributors. The Camping & Watercraft Recreation segment provides portable outdoor cooking systems, single burner and two burner stoves, and accessories under the Jetboil brand to camping and backpacking specialty stores, sporting goods stores, internet retailers, and direct customer through website and distributors; and kayaks, canoes, personal watercraft equipment and products, and paddles for family recreation, touring, and angling through independent specialty and outdoor retailers under Old Town and Carlisle brands. The Diving segment manufactures and markets underwater diving and snorkeling equipment, such as regulators, buoyancy compensators, dive computers and gauges, wetsuits, masks, fins, snorkels, and accessories through independent specialty dive stores and diving magazines under the SCUBAPRO brand. This segment also provides regular maintenance, product repair, diving education, and travel program services; and sells diving gear to dive training centers, resorts, and public safety units through websites and internet retailers. The company was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Johnson Outdoors Inc reported revenue of $592M in FY2025 versus $752M in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$34.3M in FY2025.
JOUT screens 60% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Johnson Outdoors Announces Cash Dividend
- Johnson Outdoors outlines $4M-$5M full-year tax expense amid component cost pressure monitoring
- Johnson Outdoors Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Johnson Outdoors Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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