Journey Energy Inc (JOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Journey Energy Inc stock C$3.28, price C$4.74, that is 30.8% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.08 – C$7.71 · fair‑value band C$2.30 – C$4.27 · the C$4.74 price screens above the C$3.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Journey Energy Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company develops and operates power generation properties. It also sells condensates and natural gas liquids.
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The company was formerly known as Sword Energy Inc. and changed its name to Journey Energy Inc. in July 2012. Journey Energy Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Journey Energy Inc (JOY) currently trades at C$4.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$3.28, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$4.88 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the C$4.74 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at C$1.69, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$2.30 (bear) to C$4.27 (bull), the price of C$4.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Journey Energy Inc reported revenue of C$172M in FY2025 versus C$124M in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$25.9M in FY2025, compounding −28.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$333M (≈ $234M) Micro · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.93 · EPS (TTM) C$0.3700 · Net margin 15.1% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% (5-year average) · Operating margin 16.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −31%, JOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$2.30Fair Value C$3.28BullC$4.27
Price C$4.74 · Downside -30.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.3213 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−27.7% vs −10.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−43% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 60% above its own trend.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 287 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Above median
Fair Value upside−30.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.7% · Above median
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)23.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−11.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)12.8× · Pricier than median
P/B0.94× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.97× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Journey Energy Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Journey Energy Inc (JOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$3.28 versus a price of C$4.74, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JOY?
Our model-based fair value for Journey Energy Inc is C$3.28 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$4.74.
What is the quality score of JOY?
Journey Energy Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$3.28 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$2.30, optimistic scenario C$4.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Journey Energy Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$3.28, about 31% lower versus a price of C$4.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$2.30, optimistic scenario C$4.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Journey Energy Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$169M (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Journey Energy Inc it is C$3.28 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of C$4.74. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Journey Energy Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, JOY trades above its calculated fair value: price C$4.74, fair value C$3.28, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$4.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$3.28). For Journey Energy Inc the two are C$1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Journey Energy Inc worth?
The market values Journey Energy Inc at about C$333M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is C$4.74; our models calculate a fair value of C$3.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JOY?
Our models span a range for Journey Energy Inc: cautious scenario C$2.30, base C$3.28, optimistic C$4.27 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price C$4.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JOY?
Journey Energy Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$3.28 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.3. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Journey Energy Inc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JOY from its 52-week high?
Journey Energy Inc trades at C$4.74, about 29% below its 52-week high of C$6.63 and 56% above the low of C$3.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$3.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Journey Energy Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Diamondback Energy, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Journey Energy Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price C$4.74, calculated fair value C$3.28 (−31%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JOY calculated?
We run Journey Energy Inc through 15 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$3.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Journey Energy Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was C$4.74. Our model-based fair value is C$3.28, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Journey Energy Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$4.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (47/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$2.30 to C$4.27) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Journey Energy Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The market capitalisation of Journey Energy Inc is C$333M (≈ $234M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Journey Energy Inc is 1.93 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Earnings per share at Journey Energy Inc are C$0.3700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The net margin of Journey Energy Inc is 15.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Journey Energy Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Journey Energy Inc is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
The operating margin of Journey Energy Inc is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Revenue at Journey Energy Inc is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Journey Energy Inc (JOY)?
Earnings per share at Journey Energy Inc are growing +300% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Journey Energy Inc (JOY) generate?
The free cash flow of Journey Energy Inc is −C$5.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Journey Energy Inc (JOY) carry?
The net debt of Journey Energy Inc is C$49.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 12, 2026