Joyce Corporation (JYC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$176M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +10.2% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- Our model range runs from A$4.10 (bear) to A$6.83 (bull), base A$5.47. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 75/100 (high quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.69 – A$6.75 · fair‑value band A$4.10 – A$6.83 · the A$6.50 price screens above the A$5.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Joyce Corporation (JYC) currently trades at A$6.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.47, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Joyce Corporation generated revenue of A$156M at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 11.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$10.4M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.10 (bear case) to A$6.83 (bull case); at A$6.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -24% fair-value upside, at -16%, JYC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$9.91) versus Asset-Based (A$0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Joyce Corporation Ltd retails kitchen and wardrobe products in Australia. It owns and operates Bedshed retail stores; and franchises Bedshed retail bedding stores. The company also operates kitchen and wardrobe showrooms under the Kitchen Connection and Wallspan brand names. Joyce Corporation Ltd was founded in 1886 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Joyce Corporation reported revenue of A$148M in FY2025 versus A$111M in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.3M in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JYC screens 16% overvalued. Compare with Casey's General Stores, Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $827.04 | $405.44 | -51% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $222.84 | $164.16 | -26% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $479.57 | $488.39 | +2% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $208.89 | $181.10 | -13% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.98 | $109.12 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥52.90 | ¥40.40 | -24% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $31.01 | $35.52 | +15% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $618.57 | $423.35 | -32% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $197.71 | $117.29 | -41% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 110.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -27% |
Compare Joyce Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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