Karnell Group (KARNEL-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 5.1B SEK (≈ $530M) · ISIN SE0017832173
What is Karnell Group really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 53% above our fair value of kr 62.91.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from kr 50.92 to kr 62.91 (+23.5%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +5.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 78.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range kr 38.00 – kr 97.70 · fair‑value band kr 47.18 – kr 78.63 · the kr 96.50 price screens above the kr 62.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Karnell Group (KARNEL-B) currently trades at kr 96.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 62.91, implying the stock looks roughly 53.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 108.22 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the kr 96.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 17.51, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Karnell Group generated revenue of 1.8B SEK at a net margin of 8.3%. Revenue grew 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. Net debt stands at 458M SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 47.18 (bear case) to kr 78.63 (bull case); at kr 96.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −35%, KARNEL-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 1.84 per share, which is 2.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 108.22) versus Asset-Based (kr 17.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (71).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Karnell Group AB (publ) is a private equity firm specializing investments in add-on acquisitions, expansion and small and medium-sized companies. The firm seeks to invest in B2B industrial technology companies. The firm does not invest in general distributors or systems that are dependent on third-party suppliers.
Full company description
Karnell Group AB (publ) is a private equity firm specializing investments in add-on acquisitions, expansion and small and medium-sized companies. The firm seeks to invest in B2B industrial technology companies. The firm does not invest in general distributors or systems that are dependent on third-party suppliers. The firm focuses on companies based in the Nordic region. The firm seeks to invest between SEK50 million ($4.71 million) and SEK150 million ($14.14 million) in companies with a turnover between SEK50 million ($4.71 million) and SEK350 million ($33.01 million). The firm seeks to invest in companies having EBITA more than SEK10 million ($1.05 million) and an EBITA margin above 10 percent. The firm prefers to make majority investments and take clear ownership in its portfolio companies. The firm prefers to invest from its own balance sheet with an evergreen ownership horizon. Karnell Group AB (publ) is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Karnell Group reported revenue of 1.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 422M SEK in FY2021, a compound +41.6%/yr. Reported net income was 142M SEK in FY2025, compounding +95.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
KARNEL-B screens 53% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 375 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| 3M Company MMM | $178.83 | $76.87 | −57% |
| Honeywell International Inc HON | $217.43 | $218.95 | +1% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$13.02 | HK$26.04 | +100% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €26.90 | €7.65 | −72% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$106.30 | HK$36.88 | −65% |
| CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 | HK$69.85 | HK$100.46 | +44% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,800 IDR | 9,600 IDR | +100% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $59.10 | $79.11 | +34% |
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