Karnell (KARNEL-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Karnell stock SEK 86.32, price SEK 100, upside -13.7%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range kr 38.00 – kr 109.00 · fair‑value band kr 47.90 – kr 157.11 · the kr 100.00 price screens above the kr 86.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Karnell Group AB (publ) is a private equity firm specializing investments in add-on acquisitions, expansion and small and medium-sized companies. The firm seeks to invest in B2B industrial technology companies.
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The firm does not invest in general distributors or systems that are dependent on third-party suppliers. The firm focuses on companies based in the Nordic region.
The firm seeks to invest between SEK50 million ($4.71 million) and SEK150 million ($14.14 million) in companies with a turnover between SEK50 million ($4.71 million) and SEK350 million ($33.01 million).
The firm seeks to invest in companies having EBITA more than SEK10 million ($1.05 million) and an EBITA margin above 10 percent. The firm prefers to make majority investments and take clear ownership in its portfolio companies.
The firm prefers to invest from its own balance sheet with an evergreen ownership horizon. Karnell Group AB (publ) is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Karnell (KARNEL-B) currently trades at kr 100.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 86.32, 13.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 128.79 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the kr 100.00 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at kr 13.63, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 47.90 (bear) to kr 157.11 (bull), the price of kr 100.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Karnell reported revenue of 1.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 422M SEK in FY2021, a compound +41.6%/yr. Reported net income was 142M SEK in FY2025, compounding +95.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 5.5B SEK (≈ $556M) Small · P/E ratio 34.4 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.04 · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 13.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% · Operating margin 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −14%, KARNEL-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 47.90Fair Value kr 86.32Bullkr 157.11
Price kr 100.00 · Upside -13.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 2.44 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+65.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+65.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 12%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)15.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Karnell Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KARNEL-B
Frequently asked questions
Is Karnell (KARNEL-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 86.32 versus a price of kr 100.00, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KARNEL-B?
Our model-based fair value for Karnell is kr 86.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 100.00.
What is the quality score of KARNEL-B?
Karnell has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 86.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 47.90, optimistic scenario kr 157.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karnell stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 86.32, about −14% upside versus a price of kr 100.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 47.90, optimistic scenario kr 157.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Karnell reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Karnell would have to grow free cash flow by +22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +41.6 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KARNEL-B use?
Our models discount Karnell at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Karnell that is +22.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Karnell (KARNEL-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Karnell grew +41.6 % a year. The price currently implies +22.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Karnell (KARNEL-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Karnell (+22.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.96 %: that much free cash flow Karnell produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karnell it is kr 86.32 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of kr 100.00. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Karnell stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, KARNEL-B trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 100.00, fair value kr 86.32, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KARNEL-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 100.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 86.32). For Karnell the two are kr 13.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karnell worth?
The market values Karnell at about 5.5B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 100.00; our models calculate a fair value of kr 86.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KARNEL-B?
Our models span a range for Karnell: cautious scenario kr 47.90, base kr 86.32, optimistic kr 157.11 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price kr 100.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KARNEL-B?
Karnell trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.4 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 86.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.5, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 16.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karnell (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 13.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KARNEL-B from its 52-week high?
Karnell trades at kr 100.00, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 109.00 and 74% above the low of kr 57.60 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 86.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karnell?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, CK Hutchison Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karnell stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price kr 100.00, calculated fair value kr 86.32 (−14%), Quality Score 58/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KARNEL-B calculated?
We run Karnell through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 86.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Karnell itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was kr 100.00. Our model-based fair value is kr 86.32, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Karnell right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 47.90 to kr 157.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Karnell
How large is the market capitalisation of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The market capitalisation of Karnell is 5.5B SEK (≈ $556M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Karnell is 2.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Earnings per share at Karnell are kr 3.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The net margin of Karnell is 8.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Karnell is 13.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Karnell is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
The operating margin of Karnell is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Revenue at Karnell is growing +35.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Karnell (KARNEL-B)?
Earnings per share at Karnell are growing +47.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Karnell (KARNEL-B) carry?
The net debt of Karnell is 458M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026