Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kobe Steel Ltd stock $14.41, price $12.77, upside +12.8%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.18 – $14.88 · fair‑value band $8.59 – $20.39 · the $12.77 price screens below the $14.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Kobe Steel, Ltd. engages in the materials, machinery, and electric power businesses worldwide.
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The company offers steel sheet products, including high-tensile strength, hot and cold rolled, electro-galvanized, and hot-dipped galvanized steel sheets; steel wire rods and bars; and aluminum and steel plates.
It also provides steel casting and forging products, such as crankshafts, marine parts, chemical processing equipment, and rolls; materials for plastic molding; and titanium products, copper sheets and strips, and steel powders.
In addition, the company offers robots and electric power sources, and welding materials; and machinery products, including standard compressors, tire and rubber machinery products, rotating machinery products, plastic processing machinery products, advanced technology equipment, rolling mill products, and ultra-high-pressure equipment, as well as LNG vaporizers, pressure vessels, brazed aluminum heat exchangers, and micro channel heat exchangers and reactors.
Further, it provides signaling, communication, power supply, automatic fare collection, and platform screen door systems; hydraulic and mini hydraulic excavators, mini wheel loaders, and road machinery; construction, metal, forestry, and industrial waste recycling machinery; and crawler and wheel cranes.
Additionally, the company generates and supplies electric power; offers material and structural analysis, testing, physical analysis, and other services; manufactures and sells target materials and test equipment; sells and rents detached homes; and provides brokerage, renovation, insurance, and other services, as well as operational management services of public facilities.
It also provides services in the field of iron units; and water treatment, waste incineration, PCB detoxification, and soil remediation services. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Kobe, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) currently trades at $12.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.41, implying the stock looks roughly 11% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $25.59 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.77 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.05, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.59 (bear) to $20.39 (bull), the price of $12.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kobe Steel Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥94.3B in FY2026, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.5B Mid · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) $1.10 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 13%, KBSTF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.59Fair Value $14.41Bull$20.39
Price $12.77 · Upside +12.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3619 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$9.17$15.34$25.3278
Growth DCF$9.75$15.69$24.8077
Residual Income$16.96$18.08$20.0176
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$9.17$15.34$25.3278
Owner Earnings$8.52$14.42$23.9774
5Y Revenue Exit$10.79$19.42$30.6971
5Y EBITDA Exit$16.47$29.25$44.3674
5Y P/E Exit$10.15$18.32$26.9270
10Y Revenue Exit$9.51$17.10$26.1465
10Y EBITDA Exit$13.62$23.75$35.7967
10Y P/E Exit$9.65$16.36$23.4963
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$10.24$19.90$24.8866
EPV$10.92$13.84$16.4274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$5.70$8.05$10.5269
DDM Multi-Stage$5.70$8.05$10.8767
Multiples
P/E Multiple$19.19$25.59$31.9963
P/S Multiple$19.19$25.59$31.9958
P/B Multiple$43.50$58.00$72.5055
EV/EBIT$12.58$19.88$27.1864
EV/EBITDA$21.25$31.44$41.6466
EV/Revenue$9.66$17.79$25.9352
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$9.67$12.95$19.3354
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$9.75$15.69$24.8077
Rev-Margin DCF$10.79$19.61$29.4271
Economic Profit
Residual Income$16.96$18.08$20.0176
ROIC Compounder$10.92$13.84$16.4272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$13.96$19.95$25.9367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.3% vs 0.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (18 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business draws limited strength from compressor applications in shipping emission cuts, yet its main weakness remains thin margins and low returns in the core steel commodity operations.
Main risk: Cyclical demand together with decarbonization requirements would hit margins in the steel operations on which the company continues to rely.
Kobe Steel continues to rely on its steel operations even as cyclical demand and decarbonization demands weigh on margins. At the same time the company is applying its compressor know-how to cut emissions across shipping routes by joining the Blue Visby Consortium as the first steelmaker. Will these machinery-led initiatives grow into a meaningful buffer or stay marginal next to the core materials business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside+12.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.63× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.33× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)10.3× · Cheaper than median
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Is Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.41 versus a price of $12.77, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KBSTF?
Our model-based fair value for Kobe Steel Ltd is $14.41 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.77.
What is the quality score of KBSTF?
Kobe Steel Ltd has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.41 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.59, optimistic scenario $20.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kobe Steel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.41, about +13% upside versus a price of $12.77 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.59, optimistic scenario $20.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Kobe Steel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.4T (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Kobe Steel Ltd pay a dividend?
Kobe Steel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kobe Steel Ltd pays a dividend of $0.505 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since 2021. The payout ratio is 33.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.46 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kobe Steel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KBSTF use?
Our models discount Kobe Steel Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kobe Steel Ltd that is +4.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kobe Steel Ltd grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kobe Steel Ltd (+4.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.72 %: that much free cash flow Kobe Steel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kobe Steel Ltd it is $14.41 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $12.77. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kobe Steel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, KBSTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $12.77, fair value $14.41, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KBSTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.41). For Kobe Steel Ltd the two are $1.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kobe Steel Ltd worth?
The market values Kobe Steel Ltd at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $12.77; our models calculate a fair value of $14.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KBSTF?
Our models span a range for Kobe Steel Ltd: cautious scenario $8.59, base $14.41, optimistic $20.39 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $12.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KBSTF?
Kobe Steel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kobe Steel Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.7%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KBSTF from its 52-week high?
Kobe Steel Ltd trades at $12.77, about 21% below its 52-week high of $16.13 and 16% above the low of $11.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kobe Steel Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kobe Steel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $12.77, calculated fair value $14.41 (+13%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KBSTF calculated?
We run Kobe Steel Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Kobe Steel Ltd currently trades 11% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was $12.77. Our model-based fair value is $14.41, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kobe Steel Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.59 to $20.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Kobe Steel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The market capitalisation of Kobe Steel Ltd is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kobe Steel Ltd is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Earnings per share at Kobe Steel Ltd are $1.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The dividend yield of Kobe Steel Ltd is 4.0% (payout 45.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The net margin of Kobe Steel Ltd is 3.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kobe Steel Ltd is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kobe Steel Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
The operating margin of Kobe Steel Ltd is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Revenue at Kobe Steel Ltd is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?
Earnings per share at Kobe Steel Ltd are growing −46.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) carry?
The net debt of Kobe Steel Ltd is ¥584B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026