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Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kobe Steel Ltd $18.26, price $13.85, upside +31.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · US

Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Kobe Steel Ltd

KBSTF · US

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value $18.26 · Undervalued (+32%)

!Quality 51/100

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.5 %/yr)

!Thin margins · 3.9% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

·4.15% dividend yield

✓Ranks above peers (12/14)

!Narrow moat 30/100

26 models, one by oneBear $10.87 to bull $25.88 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 51/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.42 – $16.47 · fair‑value band $10.87 – $25.88 · the $13.85 price screens below the $18.26 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Kobe Steel, Ltd. engages in the materials, machinery, and electric power businesses worldwide. The company offers steel sheet products, including high-tensile strength, hot and cold rolled, electro-galvanized, and hot-dipped galvanized steel sheets; steel wire rods and bars; and aluminum and steel plates. It also provides steel casting and forging products, such as crankshafts, marine parts, chemical processing equipment, and rolls; materials for plastic molding; and titanium products, copper sheets and strips, and steel powders. In addition, the company offers robots and electric power sources, and welding materials; and machinery products, including standard compressors, tire and rubber machinery products, rotating machinery products, plastic processing machinery products, advanced technology equipment, rolling mill products, and ultra-high-pressure equipment, as well as LNG vaporizers, pressure vessels, brazed aluminum heat exchangers, and micro channel heat exchangers and reactors. Further, it provides signaling, communication, power supply, automatic fare collection, and platform screen door systems; hydraulic and mini hydraulic excavators, mini wheel loaders, and road machinery; construction, metal, forestry, and industrial waste recycling machinery; and crawler and wheel cranes. Additionally, the company generates and supplies electric power; offers material and structural analysis, testing, physical analysis, and other services; manufactures and sells target materials and test equipment; sells and rents detached homes; and provides brokerage, renovation, insurance, and other services, as well as operational management services of public facilities. It also provides services in the field of iron units; and water treatment, waste incineration, PCB detoxification, and soil remediation services. The company was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Kobe, Japan.

Stock analysis

Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) currently trades at $13.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.26, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.70 per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the $13.85 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.64, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $10.87 (bear) to $25.88 (bull), the price of $13.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Kobe Steel Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.5T in FY2026 versus ¥2.1T in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥94.3B in FY2026, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $5.5B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 0.36 · EPS (TTM) $1.48 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 3.8% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 32%, KBSTF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.87 Fair Value $18.26 Bull $25.88

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $8.31 $13.56 $21.49 79

Growth DCF $8.77 $13.75 $20.89 78

Owner Earnings $10.94 $17.13 $26.51 75

All 22 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $8.31 $13.56 $21.49 79

Owner Earnings $10.94 $17.13 $26.51 75

5Y Revenue Exit $10.70 $19.37 $30.68 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $16.41 $29.24 $44.41 74

5Y P/E Exit $10.07 $18.26 $26.89 70

10Y Revenue Exit $9.10 $16.46 $25.20 65

10Y EBITDA Exit $13.08 $22.89 $34.52 67

10Y P/E Exit $9.24 $15.74 $22.64 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $10.68 $20.76 $25.96 66

EPV $10.07 $12.64 $14.85 74

Multiples

P/E Multiple $20.02 $26.70 $33.37 63

P/S Multiple $20.02 $26.70 $33.37 58

P/B Multiple $20.02 $26.70 $33.37 55

EV/EBIT $16.64 $24.26 $31.88 65

EV/EBITDA $25.69 $36.33 $46.96 67

EV/Revenue $13.60 $22.08 $30.57 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $10.57 $14.16 $21.14 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $8.77 $13.75 $20.89 78

Rev-Margin DCF $10.70 $19.56 $29.41 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $17.07 $17.99 $19.35 71

ROIC Compounder $10.07 $12.64 $14.85 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $14.57 $20.81 $27.05 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 37

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 35

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 43

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 48

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 75

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 47

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 82

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 91

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 83

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 64/100

Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Revenue growth 1 year

−4.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.3%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.5%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year

Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.6%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+20.6%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+16.4%

Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 0%, picking up

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%

Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+5.2%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+1.7%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.0% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.0%

Forecast 2028 (sales)+1.5%

Projected 2029 (sales)+1.6%

Projected 2030 (sales)+1.6%

Projected 2031 (sales)+1.7%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks

Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 51 · Above median

Fair Value upside +32% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −2% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.4× · Cheapest 25%

P/B 0.68× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.36× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%

EV/EBITDA 5.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)76 · sector 18

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 2

PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 15

HEALTH (low debt)78 · sector 95

DIVIDEND (yield)83 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE	$245.66	$116.05	−53%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD	$233.99	$127.14	−46%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL	₹1,267	₹1,127	−11%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL	₹184.97	₹147.13	−20%
Reliance, Inc RS	$386.95	$211.57	−45%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019	¥5.73	¥8.07	+41%
POSCO Holdings PKX	$59.05	$68.58	+16%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010	¥2.12	¥0.5500	−74%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL	₹1,141	₹516.27	−55%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME	₹1,857	₹771.10	−58%

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Kobe Steel Ltd · Fair Value
$18.26 +24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kobe Steel Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KBSTF

Frequently asked questions

Is Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.26 versus a price of $13.85, about +32% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of KBSTF?

Our model-based fair value for Kobe Steel Ltd is $18.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.85.

What is the quality score of KBSTF?

Kobe Steel Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.87, optimistic scenario $25.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Kobe Steel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $18.26, about +32% upside versus a price of $13.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.87, optimistic scenario $25.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Kobe Steel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.4T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

Does Kobe Steel Ltd pay a dividend?

Kobe Steel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).

What growth is priced into Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kobe Steel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KBSTF use?

Our models discount Kobe Steel Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kobe Steel Ltd that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Kobe Steel Ltd grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kobe Steel Ltd (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.99 %: that much free cash flow Kobe Steel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kobe Steel Ltd it is $18.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $13.85. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Kobe Steel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, KBSTF trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.85, fair value $18.26, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of KBSTF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.26). For Kobe Steel Ltd the two are $4.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Kobe Steel Ltd worth?

The market values Kobe Steel Ltd at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $13.85; our models calculate a fair value of $18.26 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KBSTF?

Our models span a range for Kobe Steel Ltd: cautious scenario $10.87, base $18.26, optimistic $25.88 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $13.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of KBSTF?

Kobe Steel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 5.1.

How solid is the balance sheet of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Kobe Steel Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is KBSTF from its 52-week high?

Kobe Steel Ltd trades at $13.85, about 16% below its 52-week high of $16.47 and 30% above the low of $10.69 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.26 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Kobe Steel Ltd?

From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Kobe Steel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $13.85, calculated fair value $18.26 (+32%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of KBSTF calculated?

We run Kobe Steel Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kobe Steel Ltd currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $13.85. Our model-based fair value is $18.26, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Kobe Steel Ltd right now?

Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($10.87 to $25.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Kobe Steel Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The market capitalisation of Kobe Steel Ltd is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Kobe Steel Ltd is 0.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Earnings per share at Kobe Steel Ltd are $1.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The dividend yield of Kobe Steel Ltd is 4.2% (payout 38.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The net margin of Kobe Steel Ltd is 3.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Kobe Steel Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kobe Steel Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

The operating margin of Kobe Steel Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Revenue at Kobe Steel Ltd is growing −1.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF)?

Earnings per share at Kobe Steel Ltd are growing −46.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Kobe Steel Ltd (KBSTF) carry?

The net debt of Kobe Steel Ltd is ¥584B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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