Keisei Electric Railway Co (KELRF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $3.3B

Below-average quality, screening 37% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.71 – $14.62 · fair‑value band $6.45 – $11.39 · the $6.27 price screens below the $8.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Keisei Electric Railway Co (KELRF) currently trades at $6.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.60, implying the stock looks roughly 37.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Keisei Electric Railway Co generated revenue of $332B at a net margin of 14.5%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.1%. Net debt stands at $90.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.45 (bear case) to $11.39 (bull case); at $6.27, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at 37%, KELRF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($10.35) versus Economic Profit ($0.8758). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of public railway transportation services for local communities in Japan. It operates through the Transportation, Distribution, Real Estate, Leisure and Service, and Construction segments. The Transportation segment is involved in the railway, bus, and taxi businesses.

Full company description

Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the provision of public railway transportation services for local communities in Japan. It operates through the Transportation, Distribution, Real Estate, Leisure and Service, and Construction segments. The Transportation segment is involved in the railway, bus, and taxi businesses. Its Distribution segment consists of stores, department stores, and other retail businesses. The Real Estate segment engages in the leasing of residential properties and an office building, as well as the sale of units in apartment buildings, a mixed-use development project, and commercial facilities. Its Leisure and Service segment develops restaurants, movies, hotels, advertising agencies, and travel agencies. The Construction segment is involved in engineering projects and construction of commercial facilities. The company also engages in the rail car maintenance, insurance agency, and driving school businesses. As of April 1, 2025, it operates 762 passenger cars and 91 stations covering 178.8 kilometers of railway. Keisei Electric Railway Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Ichikawa, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Keisei Electric Railway Co reported revenue of $335B in FY2026 versus $214B in FY2022, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was $48.3B in FY2026.

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Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.