Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Koc Holdings AS $21.00, price $21.90, upside -4.1%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.82 – $37.65 · fair‑value band $15.20 – $25.34 · the $21.90 price screens above the $21.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Koç Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, automotive, consumer durables, finance, and other businesses in Turkey and internationally.
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Koç Holding A.S., through its subsidiaries, engages in the energy, automotive, consumer durables, finance, and other businesses in Turkey and internationally. The company's energy business produces and trades in petroleum products; operates petroleum refineries; cylinder gas, auto gas, and distributes fuel and liquefied petroleum gases, as well as water products; ships petroleum; generates electricity through hydroelectric, natural gas, coal, wind, thermal, solar power and other renewable plants; air, sea, road, and railway transportation; mooring and tug services; and technology and venture investments. Its automotive business provides light commercial vehicles, passenger cars, tractors, buses, and trucks, as well as automotive retailing, car rental and trading, and insurance services. The company's consumer durables business offers white goods, televisions, and air conditioners; and distributes information and communication technologies, as well as treasury services. Its finance business provides various banking and financial products and services that include private banking, leasing, factoring, investment, asset and portfolio management, corporate and commercial loans, and credit cards; and consumer finance, custody, special purpose, brokerage, and financial consulting services. The company's other business offers fast moving consumer goods, purchasing and supply chain management services, technology integrated solutions and services, home improvement retailing, electric vehicle charging station solutions, food, retail, tourism, ship construction, healthcare, trading, technology, marina operation, digital marketing, duty free store management, payment services, and information technologies, as well as operates hotels, restaurants, pubs, cafeterias, patisseries, banquet units, bakeries, stadiums, residences, and production facilities; and manufactures and exports electric motors. Koç Holding A.S. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY) currently trades at $21.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.00, implying the stock looks roughly 4.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 16 models at a data quality of 83/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $15.20 (bear) to $25.34 (bull), the price of $21.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Koc Holdings AS reported revenue of 3.0T TRY in FY2025 versus 347B TRY in FY2021, a compound +71.4%/yr. Reported net income was 23.9B TRY in FY2025, compounding −2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.1B · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) $1.04 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 0.8% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −4%, KHOLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.20Fair Value $21.00Bull $25.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7608 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +45.7% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+50.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 21%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 4%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 380 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Koc Holdings AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KHOLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.00 versus a price of $21.90, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KHOLY?
Our model-based fair value for Koc Holdings AS is $21.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.90.
What is the quality score of KHOLY?
Koc Holdings AS has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.20, optimistic scenario $25.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Koc Holdings AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.00, about −4% upside versus a price of $21.90 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.20, optimistic scenario $25.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Koc Holdings AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.1T TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Koc Holdings AS pay a dividend?
Koc Holdings AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Koc Holdings AS it is $21.00 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $21.90. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Koc Holdings AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KHOLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.90, fair value $21.00, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KHOLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.00). For Koc Holdings AS the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Koc Holdings AS worth?
The market values Koc Holdings AS at about $11.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $21.90; our models calculate a fair value of $21.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KHOLY?
Our models span a range for Koc Holdings AS: cautious scenario $15.20, base $21.00, optimistic $25.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $21.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KHOLY?
Koc Holdings AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 1.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Koc Holdings AS (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KHOLY from its 52-week high?
Koc Holdings AS trades at $21.90, about 11% below its 52-week high of $24.61 and 25% above the low of $17.53 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Koc Holdings AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Koc Holdings AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $21.90, calculated fair value $21.00 (−4%), Quality Score 33/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KHOLY calculated?
We run Koc Holdings AS through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Koc Holdings AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $21.90. Our model-based fair value is $21.00, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Koc Holdings AS right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Koc Holdings AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The market capitalisation of Koc Holdings AS is $11.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Koc Holdings AS is 0.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Earnings per share at Koc Holdings AS are $1.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The dividend yield of Koc Holdings AS is 3.8% (payout 80.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The net margin of Koc Holdings AS is 0.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Koc Holdings AS is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Koc Holdings AS is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Revenue at Koc Holdings AS is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +49.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY)?
Earnings per share at Koc Holdings AS are growing +138% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Koc Holdings AS is −213B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Koc Holdings AS (KHOLY) carry?
The net debt of Koc Holdings AS is 689B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026