KOMEDA Holdings (KMDHF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $873M
KOMEDA Holdings
KMDHF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $13.20 (bear) to $22.01 (bull), base $17.60. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
28‑month range $16.31 – $19.19 · fair‑value band $13.20 – $22.01 · the $19.19 price screens above the $17.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
KOMEDA Holdings (KMDHF) currently trades at $19.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.60, implying the stock looks roughly 8.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, KOMEDA Holdings generated revenue of $57.2B at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue grew 19.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.20 (bear case) to $22.01 (bull case); at $19.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -8%, KMDHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($24.22) versus Asset-Based ($4.55). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. operates a coffee shop franchise business under the Komeda Coffee and Okagean brand names in Japan. It also involved in the real estate rental activities. KOMEDA Holdings Co., Ltd. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nagoya, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
KOMEDA Holdings reported revenue of $57.2B in FY2026 versus $33.3B in FY2022, a compound +14.5%/yr. Reported net income was $6.5B in FY2026, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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