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KME Group (KME) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what KME Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · IT · ISIN IT0004552359

KG Thin data Aug 13, 2026

KME Group

KME · MI

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €0.3000 · Strongly overvalued (−69%)
!Quality 36/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +172.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -5.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€1.16 €0.3330 Fair Value €0.3000 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.3330 – €1.16 · fair‑value band €0.2200 – €0.4400 · the €0.9550 price screens above the €0.3000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Company profile

KME Group S.p.A. engages in the production and sale of copper and copper alloy semifinished products in Europe. It is also involved in the renewable energy, private equity, and other services. The company was formerly known as Intek Group S.p.A. and changed its name to KME Group S.p.A. in September 2022. KME Group S.p.A.

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KME Group S.p.A. engages in the production and sale of copper and copper alloy semifinished products in Europe. It is also involved in the renewable energy, private equity, and other services. The company was formerly known as Intek Group S.p.A. and changed its name to KME Group S.p.A. in September 2022. KME Group S.p.A. was founded in 1886 and is based in Milan, Italy.

Stock analysis

KME Group (KME) currently trades at €0.9550, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.3000, implying the stock looks roughly 218.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: €0.2200 (bear) to €0.4400 (bull), the price of €0.9550 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

KME Group reported revenue of €1.9B in FY2025 versus €1.0M in FY2021, a compound +561.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€103M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €272M · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) €−475.70 · Net margin −5.3% · Return on equity −53.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.8% · Operating margin −4.7% · Revenue (TTM) €1.9B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −69%, KME screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.2200 Fair Value €0.3000 Bull €0.4400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) €0.2200 €0.3000 €0.4400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.2200 €0.3000 €0.4400 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+172.0%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+91.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
43.1% (2020) → −5.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

KME screens 218% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $193.49 $158.72 −18%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $71.07 $21.18 −70%
First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM C$43.94 C$14.24 −68%
Lundin Mining Corporation LUN C$33.45 C$36.80 +10%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥45.78 ¥20.40 −55%
KGHM Polska Miedz S.A KGH 351.90 PLN 156.67 PLN −55%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥6.17 ¥3.06 −50%
MMG Limited 1208 HK$9.07 HK$9.98 +10%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$36.73 C$23.40 −36%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥19.65 ¥6.39 −67%

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KME Group · Fair Value
€0.3000 −218%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KME Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KME.MI

Frequently asked questions

Is KME Group (KME) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.3000 versus a price of €0.9550, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KME?
Our model-based fair value for KME Group is €0.3000 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €0.9550.
What is the quality score of KME?
KME Group has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KME Group (KME)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.3000 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.2200, optimistic scenario €0.4400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KME Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.3000, about −69% upside versus a price of €0.9550 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.2200, optimistic scenario €0.4400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KME Group (KME)?
KME Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.9B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of KME Group (KME)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KME Group it is €0.3000 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of €0.9550. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KME Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, KME trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.9550, fair value €0.3000, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KME?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.9550); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.3000). For KME Group the two are €0.6550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KME Group worth?
The market values KME Group at about €272M (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is €0.9550; our models calculate a fair value of €0.3000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KME?
Our models span a range for KME Group: cautious scenario €0.2200, base €0.3000, optimistic €0.4400 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price €0.9550). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KME from its 52-week high?
KME Group trades at €0.9550, about 1% below its 52-week high of €0.9450 and 19% above the low of €0.8020 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.3000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KME Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Lundin Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KME Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price €0.9550, calculated fair value €0.3000 (−69%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KME calculated?
We run KME Group through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.3000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. KME Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with KME Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.4400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€0.2200 to €0.4400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of KME Group

How large is the market capitalisation of KME Group (KME)?
The market capitalisation of KME Group is €272M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KME Group (KME)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KME Group is 0.14 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KME Group (KME)?
Earnings per share at KME Group are €−475.70. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of KME Group (KME)?
The net margin of KME Group is −5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KME Group (KME)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KME Group is −53.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KME Group (KME)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KME Group is −0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KME Group (KME)?
The operating margin of KME Group is −4.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KME Group (KME)?
Revenue at KME Group is growing +29.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KME Group (KME)?
Earnings per share at KME Group are growing +273% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does KME Group (KME) generate?
The free cash flow of KME Group is −€8.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does KME Group (KME) carry?
The net debt of KME Group is €414M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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