K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited stock ₹82.00, price ₹33.15, upside +147.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹23.30 – ₹48.26 · fair‑value band ₹52.94 – ₹118.73 · the ₹33.15 price screens below the ₹82.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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K.M. Sugar Mills Limited engages in manufacturing and sells of sugar in India. The company operates through Sugar and Distillery segments. It also produces and sells various grades of sugar in jute bags and PP bags; and rectified spirit, ethanol, and extra neutral alcohol.
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In addition, it offers molasses, bagasse, and industrial alcohol. The Company operates a 25 MW bagasse-based co-generation power plant at Motinagar, Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh. K.M. Sugar Mills Limited was founded in 1942 and is based in Faizabad, India.
Stock analysis
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) currently trades at ₹33.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹82.00, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹100.95 per share, and 21 of the 23 models we run sit above the ₹33.15 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹45.23, and 2 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹52.94 (bear) to ₹118.73 (bull), the price of ₹33.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited reported revenue of ₹6.6B in FY2026 versus ₹5.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹534M in FY2026, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.0B (≈ $32.3M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) ₹5.23 · Net margin 7.5% · Return on equity 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% · Operating margin 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 147%, KMSUGAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹52.94Fair Value ₹82.00Bull₹118.73
Price ₹33.15 · Upside +147.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹3.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +6.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.3% vs 9.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 90% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price.
Compare K.M.Sugar Mills Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+147.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.48× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.8× · Cheaper than median
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Is K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹82.00 versus a price of ₹33.15, about +147% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KMSUGAR?
Our model-based fair value for K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is ₹82.00 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹33.15.
What is the quality score of KMSUGAR?
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹82.00 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹52.94, optimistic scenario ₹118.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the K.M.Sugar Mills Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹82.00, about +147% upside versus a price of ₹33.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹52.94, optimistic scenario ₹118.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹6.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, K.M.Sugar Mills Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +9.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KMSUGAR use?
Our models discount K.M.Sugar Mills Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For K.M.Sugar Mills Limited that is +9.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies +9.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (+9.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.24 %: that much free cash flow K.M.Sugar Mills Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For K.M.Sugar Mills Limited it is ₹82.00 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ₹33.15. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is K.M.Sugar Mills Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, KMSUGAR trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹33.15, fair value ₹82.00, a gap of about +147% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KMSUGAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹33.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹82.00). For K.M.Sugar Mills Limited the two are ₹48.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is K.M.Sugar Mills Limited worth?
The market values K.M.Sugar Mills Limited at about ₹3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹33.15; our models calculate a fair value of ₹82.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KMSUGAR?
Our models span a range for K.M.Sugar Mills Limited: cautious scenario ₹52.94, base ₹82.00, optimistic ₹118.73 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ₹33.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KMSUGAR?
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹82.00 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 5.6. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 14.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KMSUGAR from its 52-week high?
K.M.Sugar Mills Limited trades at ₹33.15, about 6% below its 52-week high of ₹35.30 and 41% above the low of ₹23.51 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹82.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to K.M.Sugar Mills Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is K.M.Sugar Mills Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ₹33.15, calculated fair value ₹82.00 (+147%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KMSUGAR calculated?
We run K.M.Sugar Mills Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹82.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. K.M.Sugar Mills Limited currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹33.15. Our model-based fair value is ₹82.00, about +147% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with K.M.Sugar Mills Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹52.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹52.94 to ₹118.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) come from?
Earnings per share at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited grew +5.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The market capitalisation of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is ₹3.0B (≈ $32.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is 0.48 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Earnings per share at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited are ₹5.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The net margin of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is 7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
The operating margin of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Revenue at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is growing −8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Earnings per share at K.M.Sugar Mills Limited are growing −40.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does K.M.Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) carry?
The net debt of K.M.Sugar Mills Limited is ₹2.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 3, 2026