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K.M. Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹3.3B (≈ $34.9M) · ISIN INE157H01023

What is K.M. Sugar Mills Limited really worth?

KM K.M. Sugar Mills Limited KMSUGAR · BSE
Price₹30.63
Fair Value₹81.26
Upside+165.3%
Quality54/100

A solid business, trading 62% below our fair value of ₹81.26.

As of Aug 21, 2026, the fair value of K.M. Sugar Mills Limited is ₹81.26 per share against a price of ₹30.63, so the fair value sits 165% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.5% net margin
!Narrow moat 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range ₹51.70 – ₹118.41

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +7.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹51.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (₹51.70 to ₹118.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹48.04 ₹17.73 Fair Value ₹81.26 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹17.73 – ₹48.04 · fair‑value band ₹51.70 – ₹118.41 · the ₹30.63 price screens below the ₹81.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

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Analysis

K.M. Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) currently trades at ₹30.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹81.26, implying the stock looks roughly 62.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹99.71 per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the ₹30.63 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹28.54, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, K.M. Sugar Mills Limited generated revenue of ₹6.4B at a net margin of 7.5%. Revenue declined 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.6%. Net debt stands at ₹2.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹51.70 (bear case) to ₹118.41 (bull case); at ₹30.63, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 165%, KMSUGAR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹2.28 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ₹40.51 ₹57.83 ₹81.63 81
Growth DCF ₹41.51 ₹57.42 ₹78.30 79
Owner Earnings ₹25.91 ₹37.01 ₹52.29 77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ₹40.51 ₹57.83 ₹81.63 81
Owner Earnings ₹25.91 ₹37.01 ₹52.29 77
5Y Revenue Exit ₹54.61 ₹87.09 ₹127.49 72
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹67.38 ₹109.89 ₹157.79 75
5Y P/E Exit ₹65.11 ₹105.84 ₹146.73 70
10Y Revenue Exit ₹46.90 ₹74.44 ₹109.22 66
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹56.57 ₹89.55 ₹130.89 68
10Y P/E Exit ₹55.18 ₹86.86 ₹122.98 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹39.49 ₹95.50 ₹123.38 65
PEG = 1.0 ₹16.91 ₹24.16 ₹31.40 57
EPV ₹59.15 ₹68.52 ₹76.61 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹1.76 ₹3.05 ₹4.59 67
DDM Multi-Stage ₹1.76 ₹2.58 ₹3.45 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹91.46 ₹121.95 ₹152.43 63
P/S Multiple ₹74.04 ₹98.72 ₹123.40 58
P/B Multiple ₹74.04 ₹98.72 ₹123.40 55
EV/EBIT ₹94.30 ₹125.80 ₹157.31 66
EV/EBITDA ₹95.38 ₹127.25 ₹159.12 67
EV/Revenue ₹67.24 ₹96.15 ₹125.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹21.30 ₹28.54 ₹42.60 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹41.51 ₹57.42 ₹78.30 79
Rev-Margin DCF ₹54.61 ₹87.23 ₹122.21 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹40.42 ₹51.08 ₹134.31 68
ROIC Compounder ₹61.19 ₹74.76 ₹89.75 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹69.80 ₹99.71 ₹129.62 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹99.71) versus Dividend Discount (₹2.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.9
P/S ratio 0.48 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ₹5.23 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.9
Dividend yield 0.6% payout 3.3%
Net margin 8.1% FY2026
Return on equity 14.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 5.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ₹6.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −8.8% 3y avg +4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −40.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ₹367M FY2026
Net debt ₹2.5B FY2026 · ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

K.M. Sugar Mills Limited manufactures and sells sugar and industrial alcohol in India. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Distillery, and Power. It produces and sells various grades of sugar in jute bags and PP bags; and rectified spirit, fuel grade ethanol, extra neutral alcohol, and other products.

Full company description

K.M. Sugar Mills Limited manufactures and sells sugar and industrial alcohol in India. The company operates through three segments: Sugar, Distillery, and Power. It produces and sells various grades of sugar in jute bags and PP bags; and rectified spirit, fuel grade ethanol, extra neutral alcohol, and other products. The company also generates and supplies power through its baggased based co-generation power plant located in Motinagar, Uttar Pradesh, and Faizabad. K.M. Sugar Mills Limited was founded in 1942 and is based in Lucknow, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

K.M. Sugar Mills Limited reported revenue of ₹6.6B in FY2026 versus ₹5.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹534M in FY2026, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
₹6.6B
Latest YoY
+0.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in INR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +15.9% (approximate, leans on 2026) · in INR
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+15.3%
Dividend yield0.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 15.3% vs 10Y 6.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.7% (2021) → 10.4% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop44% (2023) · in INR
⚠ Rate leans on 2026: that final year sits 90% above its own trend (e.g. a one-off disposal gain) and could not be adjusted
Revenue +4.8%/yr
FY22 ₹5.5B
FY23 ₹5.8B
FY24 ₹6.6B
FY25 ₹6.6B
FY26 ₹6.6B
Net income +6.5%/yr
FY22 ₹415M
FY23 ₹232M
FY24 ₹281M
FY25 ₹356M
FY26 ₹534M

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K.M. Sugar Mills Limited · Fair Value
₹81.26 +62%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "K.M. Sugar Mills Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KMSUGAR.BSE

Peer Group

Confectioners · 80 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +165% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth −9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.84× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.52× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than median

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN CHF 90,700 CHF 9,281 −90%
Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ $62.36 $27.36 −56%
The Hershey Company HSY $179.05 $91.25 −49%
Barry Callebaut AG BARN CHF 1,115 CHF 711.91 −36%
ORION Corp 271560 124,600 KRW 203,315 KRW +63%
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB $39.00 $22.21 −43%
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 ¥20.48 ¥9.09 −56%
Cloetta AB CLAB kr 54.85 kr 59.12 +8%
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN ₹652.15 ₹318.59 −51%
PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI 1,295 IDR 1,140 IDR −12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is K.M. Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹81.26 versus a price of ₹30.63, about +165% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KMSUGAR?
Our model-based fair value for K.M. Sugar Mills Limited is ₹81.26 (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹30.63.
What is the quality score of KMSUGAR?
K.M. Sugar Mills Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for K.M. Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹81.26 (as of Aug 21, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹51.70, optimistic scenario ₹118.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the K.M. Sugar Mills Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹81.26, about +165% upside versus a price of ₹30.63 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹51.70, optimistic scenario ₹118.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of K.M. Sugar Mills Limited (KMSUGAR)?
K.M. Sugar Mills Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹6.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KMSUGAR?
The net profit margin of K.M. Sugar Mills Limited is about 7.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does K.M. Sugar Mills Limited pay a dividend?
K.M. Sugar Mills Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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