Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT IDR 264, price IDR 238, upside +11.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 180.00 IDR – 437.65 IDR · fair‑value band 227.60 IDR – 330.47 IDR · the 238.00 IDR price screens below the 264.37 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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PT Kirana Megatara Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells crumb rubber in Indonesia. The company operates through the Crumb Rubber Factory and Agro Business segments. Its products are exported to tire makers. PT Kirana Megatara Tbk was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
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PT Kirana Megatara Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells crumb rubber in Indonesia. The company operates through the Crumb Rubber Factory and Agro Business segments. Its products are exported to tire makers. PT Kirana Megatara Tbk was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Kirana Megatara Tbk is a subsidiary of HSF (S) Pte. Ltd.
Stock analysis
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) currently trades at 238.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 264.37 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 10.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1,286 IDR per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the 238.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 174.51 IDR, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 227.60 IDR (bear) to 330.47 IDR (bull), the price of 238.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT reported revenue of 12.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 12.3T IDR in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was 185B IDR in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0T IDR (≈ $109M) · P/E ratio 30.8 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) −3.88 IDR · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity −1.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 11%, KMTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 227.60 IDRFair Value 264.37 IDRBull 330.47 IDR
Price 238.00 IDR · Upside +11.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF1,378 IDR1,689 IDR2,185 IDR82
Growth DCF1,402 IDR1,695 IDR2,127 IDR80
Owner Earnings420.04 IDR505.42 IDR641.20 IDR78
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF1,378 IDR1,689 IDR2,185 IDR82
Owner Earnings420.04 IDR505.42 IDR641.20 IDR78
5Y Revenue Exit991.57 IDR1,255 IDR1,625 IDR74
5Y EBITDA Exit1,009 IDR1,285 IDR1,641 IDR77
5Y P/E Exit842.56 IDR1,000 IDR1,188 IDR72
10Y Revenue Exit1,151 IDR1,386 IDR1,639 IDR68
10Y EBITDA Exit1,173 IDR1,403 IDR1,648 IDR70
10Y P/E Exit1,085 IDR1,242 IDR1,390 IDR65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd153.22 IDR270.54 IDR332.47 IDR66
EPV486.43 IDR537.76 IDR579.42 IDR74
Multiples
P/E Multiple371.78 IDR495.70 IDR619.63 IDR63
P/S Multiple287.28 IDR383.04 IDR478.80 IDR58
P/B Multiple287.28 IDR383.04 IDR478.80 IDR55
EV/EBIT1,019 IDR1,339 IDR1,659 IDR66
EV/EBITDA790.89 IDR1,035 IDR1,279 IDR67
EV/Revenue706.00 IDR983.44 IDR1,261 IDR54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)130.23 IDR174.51 IDR260.46 IDR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF1,402 IDR1,695 IDR2,127 IDR80
Rev-Margin DCF991.57 IDR1,286 IDR1,662 IDR74
Economic Profit
Residual Income202.24 IDR212.86 IDR231.94 IDR71
ROIC Compounder492.56 IDR552.11 IDR606.89 IDR72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E262.07 IDR374.39 IDR486.71 IDR67
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.8% vs −18.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.9%/yr over ~9Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 662 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+11.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.3% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 264.37 IDR versus a price of 238.00 IDR, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KMTR?
Our model-based fair value for Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 264.37 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 238.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KMTR?
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 264.37 IDR (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 227.60 IDR, optimistic scenario 330.47 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kirana Megatara Tbk PT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 264.37 IDR, about +11% upside versus a price of 238.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 227.60 IDR, optimistic scenario 330.47 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kirana Megatara Tbk PT it is 264.37 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 238.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kirana Megatara Tbk PT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, KMTR trades below its calculated fair value: price 238.00 IDR, fair value 264.37 IDR, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KMTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (238.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (264.37 IDR). For Kirana Megatara Tbk PT the two are 26.37 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kirana Megatara Tbk PT worth?
The market values Kirana Megatara Tbk PT at about 2.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 238.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 264.37 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KMTR?
Our models span a range for Kirana Megatara Tbk PT: cautious scenario 227.60 IDR, base 264.37 IDR, optimistic 330.47 IDR per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 238.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KMTR?
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 264.37 IDR is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −1.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KMTR from its 52-week high?
Kirana Megatara Tbk PT trades at 238.00 IDR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 304.00 IDR and 10% above the low of 216.00 IDR (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 264.37 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kirana Megatara Tbk PT?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kirana Megatara Tbk PT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 238.00 IDR, calculated fair value 264.37 IDR (+11%), Quality Score 65/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KMTR calculated?
We run Kirana Megatara Tbk PT through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 264.37 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kirana Megatara Tbk PT currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was 238.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 264.37 IDR, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kirana Megatara Tbk PT right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) come from?
Earnings per share at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT grew −4.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.6 %, EBIT margin +4.7 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT
How large is the market capitalisation of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The market capitalisation of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 2.0T IDR (≈ $109M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 0.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Earnings per share at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT are −3.88 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The net margin of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is −1.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
The operating margin of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Revenue at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR)?
Earnings per share at Kirana Megatara Tbk PT are growing −96.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) generate?
The free cash flow of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 1.3T IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kirana Megatara Tbk PT (KMTR) carry?
The net debt of Kirana Megatara Tbk PT is 1.6T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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