ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $17.9B
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
ZTO · US
Strengths
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $28.52 to $28.57 (+0.2%) since Aug 11, 2026. Share price −11.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 34% undervalued on our models.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from $19.96 (bear) to $35.78 (bull), base $28.57. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.59 – $29.06 · fair‑value band $19.96 – $35.78 · the $21.37 price screens below the $28.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) currently trades at $21.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.57, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generated revenue of $51.5B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 22.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.9%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.96 (bear case) to $35.78 (bull case); at $21.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -4% fair-value upside, at 34%, ZTO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($266.18) versus Asset-Based ($54.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services.
Full company description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc reported revenue of $47.8B in FY2025 versus $30.4B in FY2021, a compound +12.0%/yr. Reported net income was $8.8B in FY2025, compounding +16.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +23.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.7 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch ZTO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ZTO Express Non-GAAP EPADS of $0.59 beats by $0.08, revenue of $2.14B misses by $20M
- ZTO Reports Second Quarter 2026 Unaudited Financial Results
- ZTO to Announce Second Quarter and Half-Year Interim Financial Results of 2026 on August 18, 2026 U.S. Eastern Time
- ZTO vs. CHRW: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
Peer Group
Integrated Freight & Logistics · 217 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service, Inc UPS | $103.91 | $103.34 | -1% |
| FedEx Corporation FDX | $326.77 | $347.68 | +6% |
| Deutsche Post AG DHL | €55.32 | €53.18 | -4% |
| DSV A/S DSV | kr 1,380 | kr 712.57 | -48% |
| Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN | CHF 209.90 | CHF 147.92 | -30% |
| J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT | $274.47 | $133.80 | -51% |
| S.F. Holding 002352 | ¥32.96 | ¥48.64 | +48% |
| C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW | $146.70 | $86.56 | -41% |
| Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD | $184.47 | $115.95 | -37% |
| Hyundai Glovis Co 086280 | 196,700 KRW | 468,982 KRW | +138% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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