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Keppel Ltd (KPELF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Keppel Ltd $3.62, price $8.52, upside -57.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Keppel Ltd
KPELF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $3.62 · Strongly overvalued (−57.5%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!4.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 47/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.88 – $9.93 · fair‑value band $2.32 – $6.32 · the $8.52 price screens above the $3.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Keppel Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the infrastructure, real estate, and connectivity businesses in Singapore, China, Hong Kong, other Far East and ASEAN countries, and internationally.
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Keppel Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the infrastructure, real estate, and connectivity businesses in Singapore, China, Hong Kong, other Far East and ASEAN countries, and internationally. The company manages private funds and listed real estate investment and business trusts in areas of infrastructure, real estate, and connectivity; provides energy and environmental solutions and services, including commercial power generation, renewables, environmental engineering and construction, and infrastructure operation and maintenance; sustainable and urban space solutions; sustainable urban renewal and senior living services; system integration solutions and services; and engages in the property development and investment, and master development activities. It also offers telecommunication services; leases, develops, operates, and manages data centres; trades and sells telecommunication and information technology equipment; and develops and operates golf club. In addition, the company engages in electricity, energy and power supply; general wholesale trading; purchase and sale of gaseous fuels; development of district heating and cooling system; environmental, technology, and engineering works and construction activities; solid waste treatment activities; design and construction of waste-to-energy and desalination plants; commercial power generation; ownership and operation of hotels; and renewable energy generation activities. The company was formerly known as Keppel Corporation and changed its name to Keppel Ltd. in January 2024. Keppel Ltd. Limited was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Keppel Ltd (KPELF) currently trades at $8.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.62, 57.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $5.81 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $8.52 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.74, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.32 (bear) to $6.32 (bull), the price of $8.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Keppel Ltd reported revenue of 6.0B SGD in FY2025 versus 6.6B SGD in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 788M SGD in FY2025, compounding −6.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.6B · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 2.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.4300 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −58%, KPELF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.32
Fair Value $3.62
Bull $6.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$3.79
$4.05
$4.44
76
Growth DCF
$0.8500
$2.28
$4.73
72
Gordon GGM
$2.46
$2.69
$3.04
69
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.0800
$1.33
$3.63
65
5Y P/E Exit
$1.20
$3.37
$5.96
67
10Y P/E Exit
$0.9600
$2.43
$3.84
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.32
$2.84
$3.20
67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.46
$2.69
$3.04
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.46
$3.08
$3.96
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.38
$7.18
$8.97
63
P/B Multiple
$4.36
$5.81
$7.26
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.27
$3.04
$4.54
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.8500
$2.28
$4.73
72
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.2100
$1.74
$3.63
65
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.79
$4.05
$4.44
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.9% vs −6.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SGD, Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.0% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.0%
KPELF screens overvalued: fair value 58% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Keppel Ltd (KPELF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong FUM Growth and Recurring Income ...
- Apollo and Singapore’s Keppel to Invest in New Offshore Energy Asset Fund
- KBR's PureSAF Technology Selected by Keppel and Aster for Licensing and FEED for Asia's First Commercial-Scale Ethanol-to-Jet Sustainable Av
- Keppel (KPELY) Forms 'Hammer Chart Pattern': Time for Bottom Fishing?
Compare Keppel Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Company MMM | $164.15 | $72.78 | −56% |
| Honeywell International Inc HON | $210.94 | $244.82 | +16% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$12.94 | HK$25.88 | +100% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$102.00 | HK$28.34 | −72% |
| CK Hutchison Holdings 0001 | HK$67.25 | HK$134.50 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 611,000 KRW | 348,688 KRW | −43% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $55.36 | $78.34 | +42% |
| Kingdom Holding 4280 | 13.08 SAR | 13.40 SAR | +2% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 216.50 TRY | 182.26 TRY | −16% |
| Aker ASA AKER | kr 1,396 | kr 1,017 | −27% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Keppel Ltd (KPELF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.62 versus a price of $8.52, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KPELF?
Our model-based fair value for Keppel Ltd is $3.62 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.52.
What is the quality score of KPELF?
Keppel Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.62 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.32, optimistic scenario $6.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keppel Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.62, about −58% upside versus a price of $8.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.32, optimistic scenario $6.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Keppel Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.0B SGD (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Keppel Ltd pay a dividend?
Keppel Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Keppel Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KPELF use?
Our models discount Keppel Ltd at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Keppel Ltd that is +21.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Keppel Ltd (KPELF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Keppel Ltd grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +21.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Keppel Ltd (KPELF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Keppel Ltd (+21.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.94 %: that much free cash flow Keppel Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keppel Ltd it is $3.62 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.52. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keppel Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, KPELF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.52, fair value $3.62, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KPELF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.62). For Keppel Ltd the two are $4.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keppel Ltd worth?
The market values Keppel Ltd at about $15.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.52; our models calculate a fair value of $3.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KPELF?
Our models span a range for Keppel Ltd: cautious scenario $2.32, base $3.62, optimistic $6.32 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KPELF?
Keppel Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 24.4.
What is the PEG ratio of KPELF?
The PEG ratio of Keppel Ltd is 1.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keppel Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 0.90 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Keppel Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keppel Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.52, calculated fair value $3.62 (−58%), Quality Score 51/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KPELF calculated?
We run Keppel Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Keppel Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.52. Our model-based fair value is $3.62, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keppel Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($2.32 to $6.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Keppel Ltd (KPELF) come from?
Earnings per share at Keppel Ltd grew +3.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.7 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Keppel Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The market capitalisation of Keppel Ltd is $15.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keppel Ltd is 2.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Earnings per share at Keppel Ltd are $0.4300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The dividend yield of Keppel Ltd is 4.0% (payout 79.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The net margin of Keppel Ltd is 13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keppel Ltd is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keppel Ltd is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
The operating margin of Keppel Ltd is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Revenue at Keppel Ltd is growing −5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Keppel Ltd (KPELF)?
Earnings per share at Keppel Ltd are growing +22.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Keppel Ltd (KPELF) carry?
The net debt of Keppel Ltd is 9.1B SGD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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