Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Kiwi Property Group Limited $0.29, price $0.51, upside -43.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2750 – $0.6241 · fair‑value band $0.2000 – $0.4300 · the $0.5100 price screens above the $0.2900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Kiwi Property Group limited is one of the largest listed property companies on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and is a member of the S&P/NZX 20 Index. We have been around for over 30 years and proudly own and manage a significant real estate portfolio comprising some of New Zealand's best mixed-use, retail and office buildings.
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Kiwi Property Group limited is one of the largest listed property companies on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and is a member of the S&P/NZX 20 Index. We have been around for over 30 years and proudly own and manage a significant real estate portfolio comprising some of New Zealand's best mixed-use, retail and office buildings. Our objective is to provide investors with a reliable investment in New Zealand property through the ownership and active management of a diversified, high-quality portfolio. Kiwi Property is licensed under the Real Estate Agents Act 2008. Kiwi Property Group Limited was established on August 21, 1992 and incorporated in 1992 in New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) currently trades at $0.5100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2900, 43.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $0.4200 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $0.5100 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.0800, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2000 (bear) to $0.4300 (bull), the price of $0.5100 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kiwi Property Group Limited reported revenue of 275M NZD in FY2026 versus 256M NZD in FY2022, a compound +1.8%/yr. Reported net income was 51.0M NZD in FY2026, compounding −31.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $974M · P/E ratio 25.5 · P/S ratio 4.73 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 11.0% · Net margin 18.6% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −43%, KWIPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2000Fair Value $0.2900Bull $0.4300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)11.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.7% vs −7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.69% → 61%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.7% a year for the price and −8.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Kiwi Property Group Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)18.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)57.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)6.41× · Pricier than median
P/FCF22.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA21.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG9.04× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)68· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kiwi Property Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KWIPF
Frequently asked questions
Is Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2900 versus a price of $0.5100, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KWIPF?
Our model-based fair value for Kiwi Property Group Limited is $0.2900 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5100.
What is the quality score of KWIPF?
Kiwi Property Group Limited has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2900 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2000, optimistic scenario $0.4300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kiwi Property Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2900, about −43% upside versus a price of $0.5100 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2000, optimistic scenario $0.4300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Kiwi Property Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 271M NZD (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Kiwi Property Group Limited pay a dividend?
Kiwi Property Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.98% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kiwi Property Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KWIPF use?
Our models discount Kiwi Property Group Limited at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kiwi Property Group Limited that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kiwi Property Group Limited grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kiwi Property Group Limited (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.12 %: that much free cash flow Kiwi Property Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kiwi Property Group Limited it is $0.2900 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $0.5100. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kiwi Property Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, KWIPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.5100, fair value $0.2900, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KWIPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5100); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2900). For Kiwi Property Group Limited the two are $0.2200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kiwi Property Group Limited worth?
The market values Kiwi Property Group Limited at about $974M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $0.5100; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KWIPF?
Our models span a range for Kiwi Property Group Limited: cautious scenario $0.2000, base $0.2900, optimistic $0.4300 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $0.5100). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KWIPF?
Kiwi Property Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.5 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2900 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 9.0, P/B 0.9, P/S 6.4, EV/EBITDA 21.7.
What is the PEG ratio of KWIPF?
The PEG ratio of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 9.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kiwi Property Group Limited (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KWIPF from its 52-week high?
Kiwi Property Group Limited trades at $0.5100, about 13% below its 52-week high of $0.5868 and 6% above the low of $0.4825 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kiwi Property Group Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, The GPT Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kiwi Property Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $0.5100, calculated fair value $0.2900 (−43%), Quality Score 65/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KWIPF calculated?
We run Kiwi Property Group Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kiwi Property Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $0.5100. Our model-based fair value is $0.2900, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kiwi Property Group Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.2000 to $0.4300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) come from?
Earnings per share at Kiwi Property Group Limited grew −11.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kiwi Property Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The market capitalisation of Kiwi Property Group Limited is $974M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 4.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Earnings per share at Kiwi Property Group Limited are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The dividend yield of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 11.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The net margin of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 18.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
The operating margin of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 57.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Revenue at Kiwi Property Group Limited is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF)?
Earnings per share at Kiwi Property Group Limited are growing +187% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kiwi Property Group Limited (KWIPF) carry?
The net debt of Kiwi Property Group Limited is 1.2B NZD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 15.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 2, 2026