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Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Li Auto Inc. $2.74, price $5.90, upside -53.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Consumer Cyclical · US

LA Li Auto Inc. logo Thin data Oct 3, 2026

Li Auto Inc.

LAAOF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.74 · Strongly overvalued (−53.6%)
!Quality 31/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +35.4 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.7% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 1.0%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 15/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.00 $5.90 Fair Value $2.74 Aug 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

49‑month range $5.90 – $22.00 · fair‑value band $1.92 – $3.56 · the $5.90 price screens above the $2.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.

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Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF) currently trades at $5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.74, 53.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.37 per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the $5.90 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.41, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.92 (bear) to $3.56 (bull), the price of $5.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Li Auto Inc. reported revenue of 112B CNY in FY2025 versus 27.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $19.1B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 0.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity −2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7% · Operating margin −13.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −54%, LAAOF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.92 Fair Value $2.74 Bull $3.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5142 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $5.88 $8.37 $13.59 71
EV/EBITDA $6.66 $7.57 $8.48 66
Residual Income $3.71 $3.48 $3.42 66
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $5.88 $8.37 $13.59 71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.5600 $3.93 $5.51 58
Lynch FV $1.47 $2.10 $2.73 56
PEG = 1.0 $1.47 $2.10 $2.73 52
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1.37 $1.82 $2.28 61
P/S Multiple $1.06 $1.41 $1.76 56
P/B Multiple $1.06 $1.41 $1.76 53
EV/EBITDA $6.66 $7.57 $8.48 66
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.67 $3.58 $5.35 52
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.71 $3.48 $3.42 66
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $1.92 $2.74 $3.56 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 35
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−54.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−54.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → −1%

LAAOF screens overvalued: fair value 54% below the price. Compare with Tesla, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −1.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −13.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.26× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.88× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Tesla, Inc TSLA $354.81 $40.97 −88%
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $183.10 $211.47 +15%
BYD Company 002594 ¥83.31 ¥61.43 −26%
General Motors Company GM $77.00 $60.53 −21%
Ferrari N.V RACE $392.85 $432.14 +10%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 353,500 KRW 362,081 KRW +2%
Ford Motor Company F $12.27 $12.59 +3%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.00 €22.09 −49%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €39.73 €106.67 +169%
Honda Motor Co HMC $31.62 $20.31 −36%

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Li Auto Inc. · Fair Value
$2.74 −54%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Auto Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LAAOF

Frequently asked questions

Is Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.74 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $5.90, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LAAOF?
Our model-based fair value for Li Auto Inc. is $2.74 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $5.90.
What is the quality score of LAAOF?
Li Auto Inc. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.74 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.92, optimistic scenario $3.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Auto Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.74, about −54% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $5.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.92, optimistic scenario $3.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Li Auto Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $109B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Auto Inc. it is $2.74 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $5.90. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Auto Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, LAAOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.90, fair value $2.74, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LAAOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.74). For Li Auto Inc. the two are $3.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Auto Inc. worth?
The market values Li Auto Inc. at about $19.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $5.90; our models calculate a fair value of $2.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LAAOF?
Our models span a range for Li Auto Inc.: cautious scenario $1.92, base $2.74, optimistic $3.56 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $5.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LAAOF?
Li Auto Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LAAOF?
The PEG ratio of Li Auto Inc. is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Auto Inc. (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LAAOF from its 52-week high?
Li Auto Inc. trades at $5.90, about 38% below its 52-week high of $9.49 and at the low of $5.90 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Auto Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Auto Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $5.90, calculated fair value $2.74 (−54%), Quality Score 31/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LAAOF calculated?
We run Li Auto Inc. through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Li Auto Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $5.90. Our model-based fair value is $2.74, about −54% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Li Auto Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.92 to $3.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Li Auto Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc. is $19.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Li Auto Inc. is 0.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Earnings per share at Li Auto Inc. are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The net margin of Li Auto Inc. is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Li Auto Inc. is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Li Auto Inc. is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
The operating margin of Li Auto Inc. is −13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF)?
Revenue at Li Auto Inc. is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Li Auto Inc. (LAAOF) generate?
The free cash flow of Li Auto Inc. is −$12.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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