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Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lancashire Holdings $11.67, price $8.50, upside +37.3%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Lancashire Holdings
LCSHF · USUndervalued, solidFair Value upside is positive and quality is strong.
✓Fair value $11.67 · Undervalued (+37.3%)
✓Quality 76/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +30.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 71/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.53 – $9.22 · fair‑value band $8.76 – $14.59 · the $8.50 price screens below the $11.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Lancashire Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides specialty insurance and reinsurance products in London, Bermuda, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Reinsurance and Insurance.
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Lancashire Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides specialty insurance and reinsurance products in London, Bermuda, and Australia. The company operates in two segments, Reinsurance and Insurance. It offers property direct and facultative, property political risk and sovereign risk, and property terrorism and political violence insurance products, as well as property reinsurance services. The company also provides energy insurance products covering upstream, downstream and onshore operational, and upstream construction all risks business; marine hull, total loss only, mortgagees interests insurance, mortgagees additional perils, excess protection and indemnity, marine war, and builder's risks; and aviation AV52, aviation consortium, airline hull and liability, and satellite insurance products. In addition, it offers general insurance, support, insurance agent, and insurance mediation services. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) currently trades at $8.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.67, implying the stock looks roughly 27.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $15.98 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $8.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.18, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.76 (bear) to $14.59 (bull), the price of $8.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lancashire Holdings reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $748M in FY2021, a compound +29.0%/yr. Reported net income was $300M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) $1.17 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 19.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 37%, LCSHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.76
Fair Value $11.67
Bull $14.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7146 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$6.84
$8.35
$11.36
76
Gordon GGM
$9.71
$17.49
$24.08
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$9.71
$15.98
$18.69
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$9.71
$17.49
$24.08
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$9.71
$15.98
$18.69
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$12.06
$16.07
$20.09
63
P/B Multiple
$6.54
$8.73
$10.91
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.12
$4.18
$6.23
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.84
$8.35
$11.36
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
76/100
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Profitability
57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
84
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.1% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+42.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.39.7% vs 2.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.8% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)0.0%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $41.16 | $29.18 | −29% |
| Medibank Private Limited MPL | A$4.53 | A$1.95 | −57% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $94.45 | $118.38 | +25% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $64.72 | $52.86 | −18% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $44.15 | $44.39 | +1% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $28.48 | $29.83 | +5% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $63.73 | $70.20 | +10% |
| Radian Group RDN | $33.02 | $40.30 | +22% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $40.97 | $47.46 | +16% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $68.97 | $120.05 | +74% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.67 versus a price of $8.50, about +37% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LCSHF?
Our model-based fair value for Lancashire Holdings is $11.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.50.
What is the quality score of LCSHF?
Lancashire Holdings has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.67 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.76, optimistic scenario $14.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lancashire Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.67, about +37% upside versus a price of $8.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.76, optimistic scenario $14.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Lancashire Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lancashire Holdings pay a dividend?
Lancashire Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lancashire Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LCSHF use?
Our models discount Lancashire Holdings at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lancashire Holdings that is -17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lancashire Holdings grew +30.8 % a year. The price currently implies -17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lancashire Holdings (-17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.85 %: that much free cash flow Lancashire Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lancashire Holdings it is $11.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.50. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lancashire Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LCSHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.50, fair value $11.67, a gap of about +37% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LCSHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.67). For Lancashire Holdings the two are $3.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lancashire Holdings worth?
The market values Lancashire Holdings at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.50; our models calculate a fair value of $11.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LCSHF?
Our models span a range for Lancashire Holdings: cautious scenario $8.76, base $11.67, optimistic $14.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is LCSHF from its 52-week high?
Lancashire Holdings trades at $8.50, about 8% below its 52-week high of $9.22 and 28% above the low of $6.62 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lancashire Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lancashire Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.50, calculated fair value $11.67 (+37%), Quality Score 76/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LCSHF calculated?
We run Lancashire Holdings through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lancashire Holdings currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.50. Our model-based fair value is $11.67, about +37% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lancashire Holdings right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) come from?
Earnings per share at Lancashire Holdings grew +2.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin −4.5 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lancashire Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The market capitalisation of Lancashire Holdings is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Lancashire Holdings is 7.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lancashire Holdings is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Earnings per share at Lancashire Holdings are $1.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The dividend yield of Lancashire Holdings is 2.6% (payout 19.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The net margin of Lancashire Holdings is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lancashire Holdings is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lancashire Holdings is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
The operating margin of Lancashire Holdings is 27.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Revenue at Lancashire Holdings is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF)?
Earnings per share at Lancashire Holdings are growing +51.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lancashire Holdings (LCSHF) hold?
Lancashire Holdings holds more cash than debt, $84.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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