Li Auto Inc (LI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Li Auto Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $12.8B · ISIN US50202M1027
At a glance
LALi Auto IncLI · US
Price$11.91
Fair Value$6.83
Upside−42.7%
Quality31/100
Below-average quality, and trading another 74% above our fair value of $6.83.
As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Li Auto Inc is $6.83 per share against a price of $11.91, so the fair value sits 43% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +65.0 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -1.7% net margin · fiscal year 2025 1.0%
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/11)
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: LowRange $4.95 to $6.83
Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 7, 2026, revised from $6.82 to $6.83 (+0.1%) since Aug 30, 2026. Share price −7.2% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.74 – $46.65 · fair‑value band $4.95 – $6.83 · the $11.91 price screens above the $6.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.
Li Auto Inc (LI) currently trades at $11.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.83, implying the stock looks roughly 74.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.43 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $11.91 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $17.36, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Li Auto Inc generated revenue of $109B at a net margin of −1.7%. Revenue declined 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $39.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026
Scenario range: $4.95 (bear) to $6.83 (bull), the price of $11.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −43%, LI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings best evidence$72.39$100.87$160.6473
Residual Income$47.00$44.08$33.4567
EV/EBITDA$80.88$91.15$101.4266
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings best evidence$72.39$100.87$160.6473
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Key figures & financial health
P/S ratio0.12TTM
EPS (TTM)$−0.2700
Net margin1.0%FY2025
Return on equity−2.5%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)0.5%avg 5y
Operating margin−13.1%TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$109BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−11.4%3y avg +33.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−$12.8BFY2025
Net cash$39.1BFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality31/100
Of which business quality 33
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Profitability26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment34
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance61
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.
Full company description
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Li Auto Inc reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Growth Quality 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$109B
Latest YoY
−24.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+33.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+65.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+169.7%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−54.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−54.8%
Dividend yield0.0%
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6.8% (2020) → −0.9% (2025) · rising
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Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 25
FUTURE0· sector 28
PAST0· sector 21
HEALTH98· sector 94
DIVIDEND0· sector 50
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.83 versus a price of $11.91, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LI?
Our model-based fair value for Li Auto Inc is $6.83 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.91.
What is the quality score of LI?
Li Auto Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.83 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.95, optimistic scenario $6.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Auto Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.83, about −43% upside versus a price of $11.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.95, optimistic scenario $6.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Li Auto Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $109B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LI?
The net profit margin of Li Auto Inc is about −1.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
What is the intrinsic value of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Auto Inc it is $6.83 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026), against a price of $11.91. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Auto Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 7, 2026, LI trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.91, fair value $6.83, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.83). For Li Auto Inc the two are $5.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Auto Inc worth?
The market values Li Auto Inc at about $12.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 7, 2026). Per share that is $11.91; our models calculate a fair value of $6.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LI?
Our models span a range for Li Auto Inc: cautious scenario $4.95, base $6.83, optimistic $6.83 per share (as of Sep 7, 2026, price $11.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LI?
The PEG ratio of Li Auto Inc is 0.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Auto Inc (as of Sep 7, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LI from its 52-week high?
Li Auto Inc trades at $11.91, about 63% below its 52-week high of $32.03 (as of Sep 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Auto Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Auto Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 7, 2026: price $11.91, calculated fair value $6.83 (−43%), Quality Score 31/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LI calculated?
We run Li Auto Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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Li Auto Inc
LI · US