Li Auto Inc (LI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Li Auto Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Li Auto Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.65 – $46.65 · fair‑value band $4.96 – $6.85 · the $12.14 price screens above the $6.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.
Show more
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Li Auto Inc (LI) currently trades at $12.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.85, implying the stock looks roughly 77.2% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.43 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $12.14 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $17.36, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.96 (bear) to $6.85 (bull), the price of $12.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Li Auto Inc reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $13.0B · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2700 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity −2.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −13.1% · Revenue (TTM) $109B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −44%, LI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.96Fair Value $6.85Bull $6.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+65.0%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+169.7%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−54.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−54.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −1%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−45% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.18× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.12× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.82× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Li Auto Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LI
Frequently asked questions
Is Li Auto Inc (LI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.85 versus a price of $12.14, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LI?
Our model-based fair value for Li Auto Inc is $6.85 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.14.
What is the quality score of LI?
Li Auto Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.85 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $6.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Auto Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.85, about −44% upside versus a price of $12.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $6.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Li Auto Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $109B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Auto Inc it is $6.85 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $12.14. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Auto Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, LI trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.14, fair value $6.85, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.85). For Li Auto Inc the two are $5.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Auto Inc worth?
The market values Li Auto Inc at about $13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $12.14; our models calculate a fair value of $6.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LI?
Our models span a range for Li Auto Inc: cautious scenario $4.96, base $6.85, optimistic $6.85 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $12.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LI?
The PEG ratio of Li Auto Inc is 0.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Auto Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −2.5%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LI from its 52-week high?
Li Auto Inc trades at $12.14, about 62% below its 52-week high of $32.03 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Auto Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Auto Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $12.14, calculated fair value $6.85 (−44%), Quality Score 31/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LI calculated?
We run Li Auto Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Li Auto Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $12.14. Our model-based fair value is $6.85, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Li Auto Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Li Auto Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The market capitalisation of Li Auto Inc is $13.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Li Auto Inc is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Earnings per share at Li Auto Inc are $−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The net margin of Li Auto Inc is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Li Auto Inc is −2.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Li Auto Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Li Auto Inc (LI)?
The operating margin of Li Auto Inc is −13.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Li Auto Inc (LI)?
Revenue at Li Auto Inc is growing −11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Li Auto Inc (LI) generate?
The free cash flow of Li Auto Inc is −$12.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Li Auto Inc (LI) hold?
Li Auto Inc holds more cash than debt, $39.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Li Auto Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Li Auto Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 18, 2026